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Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

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Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#141

Post by yters »

api wrote: post #103
est31 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not, I've only used it as an example. China had been the world's leading economy for a long time. They spawned many innovations like guns or even paper money. They had a bad century but it's foolish to belittle them.

IMHO a lot of Westerners are lulled into overconfidence vs. China because of racism, even if that racism is implicit or subconscious. China can't equal America or Europe because China isn't white. There are arguments against China's continued rise that are rooted in demographics, politics, and social issues, but the Chinese are definitely capable of doing what Americans and Europeans do if all else is equal. Racism i…

I don't see any racial disparagement of China. I see criticism of the culture that focuses on stealing, copying, and fine tuning over macro innovations. This is not based in race or genetics, but in the choice by the people how they wish to behave. This is tied in with the atrocious human rights abuse, which makes it seem the problem is undervaluing of the individual human mind, in favor of achieving national objectives at the expense of individuals. Some say this is just part of the national character, but historically it is not. There is a broad range of thought in Chinese history, and while the collectivism has become dominant, it is by no means the only nor most effective Chinese worldview.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#142

Post by roenxi »

whimsicalism wrote: post #37
Robotbeat wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

A related point. the US economy tries to fix this every so often by sending the people directing capital flows bankrupt (notably, circa 2007). The US government keeps stepping in to fix capitalism when it looks like there might be change.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#143

Post by Aunche »

whimsicalism wrote: post #37
Robotbeat wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

China's capital investments tend to be more successful because they copy the ones that already work. High speed rail is more likely to bring economic value than vertical landing rockets or self-driving cars. I think the problem in the US at least is that there is much much capital that all the brightest minds flock to profitable areas. In China, these opportunities are a lot rarer, so more people will pursue research or work for the government.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#144

Post by whimsicalism »

nilkn wrote: post #139
whimsicalism wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, there is the (obvious) point that ~100 billionaires in government is not contradictory with capital allocations being made by smart people. How many of those billionaires inherited their wealth? > China's parliament has ~100 billionaires, and the concentration of wealth is even more extreme than that when you count those with a net worth exceeding, say, $100 million instead. I mean, just looking at the fac…

It's just not clear to me what point you're trying to make. Maybe the US has more wealth concentration at the top than China, but it's clear that both countries experience this problem/symptom to an extraordinary degree. It's also clear there are tons of self-made multimillionaires and billionaires in the US, including probably a surprising number right on this very forum (well, maybe not billionaires so much). You'r…

The point I'm making is pretty clear. Obviously this analysis is entirely comparative, since we're trying to diagnose why China might diverge compared to other growth models.

China has comparatively less wealth concentration, and a comparatively much higher proportion of Chinese billionaires and multimillionaires are self-made compared to the US. Keep in mind, there weren't really any billionaires in China before 1980 for them to inherit the money from.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#145

Post by eloff »

whimsicalism wrote: post #37
Robotbeat wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China. If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference…

That's an interesting angle I haven't heard before.

Your thesis could be restated as hereditary wealth / rising aristocracy concentrates wealth based on lineage and not meritocracy, thus unlikely to be in the hands of those most able to put it to work effectively. This inefficiency in the market would lead to lower future growth potential. I'm going to ignore the mention of IQ because a) It's largely hereditary so I think it actually runs counter to your argument and b) It's not the best measure for ability to allocate capital effectively in the first place.

That seems plausible though. It would superficially make sense to tax that with a wealth or estate tax and put the money into programs that increase social mobility. I say superficially because whenever you tax something you change people's behaviour, like moving their assets into a trust to avoid estate taxes. I think we're seeing this in the US where the states with the highest taxes, California and New York are seeing the highest net emigration of 200K people a year to other states. I wonder if it's related.

The US in particular has the lowest social mobility compared to other major Western nations. The American dream is least alive in America in the West. That's a major drag on the future economic potential of the country.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#146

Post by loughnane »

prepend wrote: post #122
echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

> The West has a huge military and space program. So does China I don’t think this is true. China’s military is quite weak compared to the US (dollar amount, global reach, navy, nuclear) and it’s not able to project power globally. Even as far as the Middle East would be a problem as they don’t have bases or carrier groups. This is actually kind of an advantage as they can funnel money into more productive purposes,…

By some measures China's navy is larger than the US's [0]:

>In a report published this month, the Pentagon acknowledged a grim milestone: China’s navy, having churned out warships like sausages, has become the world’s largest.

I'm not aware of many signs that this trend will decrease.

[0] https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/26/china-now...

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#147

Post by logicslave »

coliveira wrote: post #113

China had been the most advanced country for centuries, having lost this position during the capitalist advances in the West. This should be welcome as it returns China to its traditional position as an advanced civilization.

...where are all the great Chinese inventions? the great literature? philosophy? math? science?

Aside from gun powder and a few others, it all came from the west in the last thousand years.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#148

Post by yorwba »

whimsicalism wrote: post #86
Robotbeat wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your argument is that we are approaching an aristocratic, low-churn society with a bunch of favored failsons at the top, then that would make more sense than trying to frame it in terms of Intrinsic intelligence. But I don’t think your comparison is accurate. The Chinese Party leadership and bureaucratic apparatus is plenty nepotistic while America’s more private-market-oriented economy is now dominated by (1st or…

> we are approaching an aristocratic, low-churn society with a bunch of favored failsons at the top, then that would make more sense than trying to frame it in terms of Intrinsic intelligence. Uh, I'm not sure exactly what you're disagreeing with. I think intelligence is a thing, I think tests can probably reflect it at least a bit, and I think the fact that wealth is not really correlated with it means that there ar…

> China's wealth Gini coefficient is smaller than ours, so the problems would be less magnified.

The World Bank's data is a bit spotty, but it looks like China's Gini is roughly similar to the US's at around 40 whereas other economic powers like Japan, Germany, South Korea and France are bunched closer to 30.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=C...

If your theory of is based on China having less wealth inequality than the US, you really should also look at countries with much less wealth inequality than either.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#150

Post by creaghpatr »

loughnane wrote: post #146
prepend wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The West has a huge military and space program. So does China I don’t think this is true. China’s military is quite weak compared to the US (dollar amount, global reach, navy, nuclear) and it’s not able to project power globally. Even as far as the Middle East would be a problem as they don’t have bases or carrier groups. This is actually kind of an advantage as they can funnel money into more productive purposes,…

By some measures China's navy is larger than the US's [0]: >In a report published this month, the Pentagon acknowledged a grim milestone: China’s navy, having churned out warships like sausages, has become the world’s largest. I'm not aware of many signs that this trend will decrease. [0] https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/09/26/china-now...

Largest and strongest are not the same thing.
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