Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles • Hacker News Board

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#11

Post by aaronbrethorst » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 6:06 AM UTC

slfnflctd wrote: post #7

This really is a good thing to keep in mind when it seems like the bad news keeps coming every day-- whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. Of course, knowing this doesn't help much when you're facing catastrophe that damages your own well being, and past performance is an unreliable pre…

Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average.

Overall, global temperatures are still slowly getting higher for everyone on average, too.

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#12

Post by aaronbrethorst » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 6:08 AM UTC

ggm wrote: post #5

The obvious thing to say is "climate" But I guess that would be seen as 'inflammatory' -when in fact it goes to exactly the same disjoin between statistics, and experiental sense. Nobody who doubts in AGW thinks the changes represent systemic, across the board, movement in time. They just think "its always been this variable" and miss the year on year accumulating effect.

Saying ‘we are utterly fucked in the medium term’ is what more folks need to do. Too many people have their heads in the sand even now.

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#13

Post by malux85 » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 6:41 AM UTC

I think we should setup the conditions for miracles so they are more likely to occur.

Just like the Battersea power station was once the beating heart of London - delivering energy to industry and the people the UK government should build a giant datacenter and push out cheap (or free) vms to anyone who wants them. Push out computational ability to everyone.

Same with Raspberry Pis - send one to every student in the country, the economic benefit from the 8-10 genius level kids getting that R-Pi and being inspired into programming will pay for the few million other devices.

I also really like the arm of the German government that port-scans companies and contacts them if they have vulnerable services running, it is the duty of the government to protect its industry and citizens and this kind of preemptive public good is innovative and shows long term thinking without a desire for immediate, transactional payoffs.

These things raise the bar and make miracles more likely to occur by “gardening” them into existence

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#14

Post by DyslexicAtheist » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 7:17 AM UTC

slfnflctd wrote: post #7

This really is a good thing to keep in mind when it seems like the bad news keeps coming every day-- whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. Of course, knowing this doesn't help much when you're facing catastrophe that damages your own well being, and past performance is an unreliable pre…

> ... whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. ...

the assumption that things are getting better may be correct on the collective level but even here it depends where your samples are coming from. a developing country struggling with desertification or disappearance of drinking water or floods will likely not look better in a few decades. Capetown or other places may not exist in a few decades.

on the individual level it looks a lot bleaker even than this. Most individuals stuck in some hamster wheel are going to tell themselves they're doing it for "their future". But as Covid shows the future may not pan out well. Maybe their partners are dead, maybe they are dead. In the long run though everyone is dead. Our fallacy is thinking bad things only happen to others.

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#15

Post by aaron695 » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 8:56 AM UTC

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #14

slfnflctd wrote: post #7

This really is a good thing to keep in mind when it seems like the bad news keeps coming every day-- whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. Of course, knowing this doesn't help much when you're facing catastrophe that damages your own well being, and past performance is an unreliable pre…

> ... whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. ... the assumption that things are getting better may be correct on the collective level but even here it depends where your samples are coming from. a developing country struggling with desertification or disappearance of drinking water or fl…

> a developing country struggling with desertification or disappearance of drinking water or floods will likely not look better in a few decades. Capetown or other places may not exist in a few decades.

This is categorically wrong. And it's hard to know what to say when all evidence is against this.

As a side note, to a specific case you mention, the life expectancy in Capetown is the largest in the country and continuously improving.

Even in the fantasy world of the 'Media' where it might run out of water, in a few decade their lives would still be far better than now.

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#16

Post by marcus_holmes » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 9:06 AM UTC

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #14

slfnflctd wrote: post #7

This really is a good thing to keep in mind when it seems like the bad news keeps coming every day-- whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. Of course, knowing this doesn't help much when you're facing catastrophe that damages your own well being, and past performance is an unreliable pre…

> ... whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. ... the assumption that things are getting better may be correct on the collective level but even here it depends where your samples are coming from. a developing country struggling with desertification or disappearance of drinking water or fl…

Have you spent any time at all in a developing country?

They're so high on hope and change it's inspiring. It's the opposite to TFA - everyone is living better than their parents did, the progress is visible between generations (between decades even). They know they still have problems, but they trust in their ability to deal with them like they're dealing with everything else.

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#17

Post by dylan604 » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 9:06 AM UTC

I guess this depends on your definition of a miracle. In a previous job, I had only been there a few weeks after moving across country to take this job. It was a large enough company that I still didn't know what the entire company did but recognized a few people from different departments just from water cooler chats. I had been becoming familiar with some new software and was staying late as I didn't really have anything else to do. Taking a stroll through the building partly out of curiosity to see who else was still in the building I found a group that was staying late because of a next day deadline. Curiosity got me involved in what they were struggling to do. It just so happened that the software I had been playing with was the perfect solve to this groups problem. Ultimately, the deadline was met at the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs and no runners on the bases. Sometimes, things just work out where the right info is available and the people that can use that info all come together to pull off what looks like a miracle when it was just damn good luck of very fortunate timing.

We didn't save any lives that day. We didn't change the direction of medical advice. However, face was saved and the people that were dreading having to tell the client the deadline was not going to be met would call it a miracle. And since it happened after hours while we worked deep into the night, would that not also qualify as an overnight miracle?

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#18

Post by marcus_holmes » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 9:09 AM UTC

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #11

slfnflctd wrote: post #7

This really is a good thing to keep in mind when it seems like the bad news keeps coming every day-- whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. Of course, knowing this doesn't help much when you're facing catastrophe that damages your own well being, and past performance is an unreliable pre…

Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. Overall, global temperatures are still slowly getting higher for everyone on average, too.

So, why bring this up? Why must everything be headed to disaster? Why is all good news always countered with a negative forecast of doom? I seek to understand.

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#19

Post by watwut » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 10:00 AM UTC

marcus_holmes wrote: post #16

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ... whether it be on the global/national stage, in your business or in your personal life. Overall, things in general are still slowly getting better for everyone on average. ... the assumption that things are getting better may be correct on the collective level but even here it depends where your samples are coming from. a developing country struggling with desertification or disappearance of drinking water or fl…

Have you spent any time at all in a developing country? They're so high on hope and change it's inspiring. It's the opposite to TFA - everyone is living better than their parents did, the progress is visible between generations (between decades even). They know they still have problems, but they trust in their ability to deal with them like they're dealing with everything else.

They are multiple wars countries that are definitely not moving toward better future. Like, there are wars and genocides going on right now. Those people are not be better off then previously. Syria is not better off, Libya is neither. Palestine is not moving toward shiny future. Yazidi are not better off nor other people in formerly ISIS areas. Especially women, but like, guys did not had it easy either. Not that Kurds had it easy before, but it seems like genocide is starting around now.

And those are just super obvious examples from top of head. Everyone is living better than their parents did is just not true.

Re: Lots of overnight tragedies, no overnight miracles

#20

Post by refurb » Thu, Oct 22, 2020, 10:49 AM UTC

Reminds me of a chart I saw on the incremental gain of various therapies for colorectal cancer. You’d see a lot of discussion around “this drug increased median overall survival by 4 months, is that really a worthwhile advancement?”.

But you track it over 15 years, median overall survival had gone from 6 months to 10 years. All small incremental gains.

That’s the difference between a death sentence and manageable disease.