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Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

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11–20 of 91 posts

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#12
Great news! What about long-term impacts, like damage to the lungs or heart?

We'll likely have a cohort of patients, like "Americans alive during 2020-2021", that'll be greatly impacted by health issues as they get older if we don't figure out how to mitigate long-term impacts.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#13
post #2

Summary: > Studying changes in death rate is tricky because although the overall U.S. death rate for COVID-19 seems to be dropping, the drop coincides with a change in whom the disease is sickening. > So have death rates dropped because of improvements in treatments? Or is it because of the change in who's getting sick? > To find out, Horwitz and her colleagues looked at more than 5,000 hospitalizations in the NYU La…

So the remaining question is, has the virus changed (mutated) to be less deadly, or have masks lessened the viral load on initial infection enough to give the immune system a better chance of fighting it off, or have treatments become that much more effective? Or a combination of the above?

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#16
post #4

Its crazy they didn't talk about testing. In April if you were a 25 year old with a mild cough you couldn't get a test even if you begged for one. Now you can get a test easily, its little wonder the denominator has gone up a lot. Edit: Yeah I see its hospitalized and they tried to control. I'm not convinced its a useful study but at least dont upvote this.

I don't see why a drop death rate of people getting submitted to hospital is not a useful study?

It is not measuring mild cases, its measuring people who are severe enough to require hospitilasation. This is clearly showing we are improving in the treatment of the disease.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#17
This may be uncomfortable to point out, but at some point, the virus has to run out of susceptible people to kill. The real chance of dying from COVID for an individual is not the average of ~0.4%. It's 0.0% for the vast majority of people, but for people whose immune system fails them, it's closer to 100%. Such a condition usually takes years to build up. Excess mortality graphs show that a lot of people dodged the Influenza bullet in the past years, those were highly susceptible to die of COVID-19 this year.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#18
post #10
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks! > mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance. It's strange to phraseit like that; I would have phrased it as "mortality has dropped by a factor of 3"

I prefer the original - it tells me that 18% of all hospitalised patients are alive today where they would not have been before. Yours tells me 2/3 of them that were dying are no longer, but it puts me on edge like I might be being baited into clicking - a 2/3 drop isn't necessarily impressive, like in normal times if 0.5% of ED patients are dying, dropping by a factor of three might just be the difference between a…

hmm..I see your point but I'm not sure I agree, saying 2/3 of people that otherwise would have died are no longer is tailored to the problem. E.g. if mortality rate from all covid infections went from 0.1% -> 0.001%, thats incredibly impressive and important since the mortality is now 1% of what it was, meaning 99% of deaths are being avoided but "the mortality rate went down by 0.099%" sounds small and insignificant.

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#19

Great news! What about long-term impacts, like damage to the lungs or heart? We'll likely have a cohort of patients, like "Americans alive during 2020-2021", that'll be greatly impacted by health issues as they get older if we don't figure out how to mitigate long-term impacts.

The lung damage at least looks like it is repaired over time in most people.

https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-09/elf-cps090320.ph...

Re: Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

#20
Ummm, no?

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-nu...

First graph is global deaths daily. Pretty linear to me.

Second grapn is per country/continent.

Third graph plots cases vs deaths.

From this it seems that we detect more cases but same amount of people are dying.

We are testing more. Thats it sadly.

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