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Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

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Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you need to look is not fatality rate, but total fatalities caused by the disease. Flu kills 60000 a year max in US, Covid kills 5x that number. And it is unclear what will be a fatality rate for younger people whose organs are damaged by previous infection.

'organs damaged by previous infection' Fake news.

You have fake brains, congratulations.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#112
post #70

As others say, this is way too much to say "meh", but I do think it needs a rethink of the lockdown strategies. Lockdowns kill people; people with cancer, people who need surgeries, people who lose income to support themselves. Clearly, so does Covid, and we need to balance it. Can we do better, as societies, if we aggressively protecting old and vulnerable people, and let fitter people continue with their lives? Thi…

You’re proposing “aggressively protecting old and vulnerable people”. ...so does that not mean a strong lockdown for those people? > and lack of economic collapse In your model you’re calling for a strong lockdown of 30% of the population. How is that not going to have a powerful negative impact on the economy? Also, as a practical matter, I doubt society will accept a strategy that minimizes the impact of covid-19 o…

> You’re proposing “aggressively protecting old and vulnerable people”. ...so does that not mean a strong lockdown for those people?

> In your model you’re calling for a strong lockdown of 30% of the population

Why ask a question and then assume an answer?

Precautionary measures for the elderly can be food delivery, direct financial support, free N95 masks, free healthcare, priority vaccination, etc.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#113

What percentage of people who get the flu are asymptomatic? I think the biggest issue with covid is people spreading it who don't even know they have it. A friend of mine just happened to get a test and was found positive. The only symptom they had was a headache. Who can take a day of work because of a headache?

If only it were only that. In the UK at least, they reckon 80% of people with a positive test aren’t isolating at all.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stories like this are the reason for all the social disrancing measures and work from home. Not everybody can follow this of course. But those jobs that can be done from home should be done from home. And social distancing should be followed as much as possible. Sadly, people have to be forced to do so it seems.

The only really sad thing is that so many people believe others should be forced (through the use of the monopoly of force the state holds) to do whatever they believe is "right"

eh, welcome to living in a society. Also there's a lot more going on behind the anti-mask/social distancing nonsense than freedom. Trump supporters chanted 12 more years at a rally the other day, that doesn't sound like a group that's actually concerned with authoritarianism. So what is it really? I don't know. But stop chanting freedom while flaunting public safety.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#115

What percentage of people who get the flu are asymptomatic? I think the biggest issue with covid is people spreading it who don't even know they have it. A friend of mine just happened to get a test and was found positive. The only symptom they had was a headache. Who can take a day of work because of a headache?

Most influenza infections are asymptomatic.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2...

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#116
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> National health policy should not be based on personal outcomes. I'm not sure I understand what that even means. What should national health policy be based on?

What's best for the nation. Having blanket lockdowns with no timeline for lifting them, while also wrecking the economy because people don't want their 80+ grandma to die of covid isn't necessarily good for the country, even if it makes people feel better in the short term.

Mean age of people in English ICUs is currently just under 60, and median is just over 60.

20% of patients are 60-69. 15% are 50-59.

https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

There are more people aged 40-49 than 80+ in ICU.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#117
post #85

For comparison, from what I've read the typical annual influenza fatality rate is around 0.1% (don't know what the under-70 rate would be). So, this puts covid-19 solidly in the uncanny valley of viral mortality rates; not low enough to be "just like a flu", not high enough to justify shutting down the world. No wonder opinions on it are so divided.

Apple and oranges. That flu fatality rate is without social distancing.

No, IFR is the infection fatality rate. It's the number of fatalities divided by the number of infections. If you reduce the infection rate, the proportion of those infections that results in death will not change. This of course doesn't apply if healthcare systems are overwhelmed, but that's not what we're talking about here.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#118

What percentage of people who get the flu are asymptomatic? I think the biggest issue with covid is people spreading it who don't even know they have it. A friend of mine just happened to get a test and was found positive. The only symptom they had was a headache. Who can take a day of work because of a headache?

If only it were only that. In the UK at least, they reckon 80% of people with a positive test aren’t isolating at all.

The study is here [1]. The relevant passage is:

"Of those who reported having experienced symptoms of COVID-19 in the last seven days,

only 18.2% (95% CI 16.4 to 19.9) said they had not left home since developing symptoms."

There's a big difference between complete noncompliance (not isolating at all), or incomplete compliance (reducing social contact but not strictly complying with the guidelines).

They don't seem to try to measure the extent of the behavioural change amongst the 82% who left the house.

[1] https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/effective-test-trace-and-isolate-...

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#119

What percentage of people who get the flu are asymptomatic? I think the biggest issue with covid is people spreading it who don't even know they have it. A friend of mine just happened to get a test and was found positive. The only symptom they had was a headache. Who can take a day of work because of a headache?

If only it were only that. In the UK at least, they reckon 80% of people with a positive test aren’t isolating at all.

A large fraction of disease transmissions are occurring in private homes. UK homes tend to be smaller than in other developed countries which makes it difficult to effectively isolate an infected person.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8201900.stm

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#120
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(1) A COVID-19 infection can have long-term effects even in young people. (2) We all have seen the images of hospitals overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients, not having enough breathers, etc. For some reason this doesn't happen with the typical annual influenza ... If you reduce everything to statistics about mortality rates, you are missing very important parts of the picture.

> (1) A COVID-19 infection can have long-term effects even in young people. What is the rate of this?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212555v...
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