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Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

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51–60 of 106 posts

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#51
post #38

With the common cold and flu they mutate a lot more than Covid, the chance is that it will be around for a long period of time then fizzle off because of the advance of meds together with low rate significant of mutations.

As I understand it, influenza mutates much faster than coronaviruses do. "The" common cold is really a whole bunch of unrelated viruses lumped together, and I haven't heard anything about the other coronaviruses that cause common colds mutating any faster than Covid.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#52
post #31

If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!

There is plenty of evidence to support the idea that as it becomes endemic, it will evolve toward yet-another-cold. There is no evidence in all of history for an endemic coronavirus that is not yet-another-cold. https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4361674/#!po=0.... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.g…

I am clueless but I'd like to ask: when you say "it will evolve toward yet-another-cold"... does it mean it'll be as harmless as the common cold or as common as the common cold but as dangerous as covid19 ?

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#53
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

If that drops r below 1 long enough it would have to right? This seems especially hard to do though, since compliance would need to be nearly universal. You could potentially wipe out influenza and the common cold at the same time too though potentially.

Some individuals may stay infectious forever. E.g. Typhoid Mary[1] was quarantined twice, and the second time she remained isolated until death. (Thypoid fever is a bacterial infection, but I assume something similar can happen with a virus.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#54
post #45

If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!

Why stop fighting when it becomes just a cold? The common cold costs billions (not to mention making people miserable).

I wonder why we never hear serious talk of trying to cure the common cold. It reminds me of how people who talk about curing aging are seen as crackpots. Unlike cancer, aging and colds are seen as inevitable by people, and any attempt to cure them, or even talk about the fact that we should, is seen as fanciful.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#55
post #48

Of course, no way to control coordinated mask wearing for 7 billion people simultaneously without decades of planning. HIV has killed around 50 million over the past 40 years, and we know how to stop that but it is still endemic and will be for at least a century.

HIV is not asymptomatic though. If you have it you know it, and thus you can protect yourself and those around you. If we had an indication of who's a covid carrier we could have fought the pandemic a lot better.

HIV can absolutely be asymptomatic, and can be for long periods of time (~10 years in some cases). And it can be transmitted during this phase.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#56
post #50
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't do that. Nobody said not to fight it, we do fight colds already, it just wouldn't be news anymore. Did you know there are four coronaviruses that cause cold-like symptoms? I didn't, because I didn't really care. That's all Op is saying.

If we had invested more in developing vaccines and treatments for the common cold, then maybe we would have tricks that would have helped us beat covid faster.

I think that's a common misconception here. Common cold viruses are very frequent targets of research - not with the end goal of creating an actual vaccine for a specific cold virus but for covering blind spots in our insight and processes that can be weaponized to create a vaccine when an outbreak happens. I'd say that our system is working - developing several working vaccines for a novel virus in under a year is pretty darn impressive.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#57

If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!

Can someone explain? It basically self selects for survivability because living people spread better?

And if so, how does the old strand die out in our world?

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#58
post #48

Of course, no way to control coordinated mask wearing for 7 billion people simultaneously without decades of planning. HIV has killed around 50 million over the past 40 years, and we know how to stop that but it is still endemic and will be for at least a century.

HIV is not asymptomatic though. If you have it you know it, and thus you can protect yourself and those around you. If we had an indication of who's a covid carrier we could have fought the pandemic a lot better.

The initial infection can be flu like. After that it becomes asymptomatic and that can last a long time.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#59
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is plenty of evidence to support the idea that as it becomes endemic, it will evolve toward yet-another-cold. There is no evidence in all of history for an endemic coronavirus that is not yet-another-cold. https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4361674/#!po=0.... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.g…

I am clueless but I'd like to ask: when you say "it will evolve toward yet-another-cold"... does it mean it'll be as harmless as the common cold or as common as the common cold but as dangerous as covid19 ?

Benign enough to spread without concern

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#60
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HIV is not asymptomatic though. If you have it you know it, and thus you can protect yourself and those around you. If we had an indication of who's a covid carrier we could have fought the pandemic a lot better.

HIV can absolutely be asymptomatic, and can be for long periods of time (~10 years in some cases). And it can be transmitted during this phase.

I stand corrected
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