With the common cold and flu they mutate a lot more than Covid, the chance is that it will be around for a long period of time then fizzle off because of the advance of meds together with low rate significant of mutations.
Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
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Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#52If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!
There is plenty of evidence to support the idea that as it becomes endemic, it will evolve toward yet-another-cold. There is no evidence in all of history for an endemic coronavirus that is not yet-another-cold. https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4361674/#!po=0.... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.g…
Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?
If that drops r below 1 long enough it would have to right? This seems especially hard to do though, since compliance would need to be nearly universal. You could potentially wipe out influenza and the common cold at the same time too though potentially.
Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#54If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!
Why stop fighting when it becomes just a cold? The common cold costs billions (not to mention making people miserable).
Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#55Of course, no way to control coordinated mask wearing for 7 billion people simultaneously without decades of planning. HIV has killed around 50 million over the past 40 years, and we know how to stop that but it is still endemic and will be for at least a century.
HIV is not asymptomatic though. If you have it you know it, and thus you can protect yourself and those around you. If we had an indication of who's a covid carrier we could have fought the pandemic a lot better.
Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
Please don't do that. Nobody said not to fight it, we do fight colds already, it just wouldn't be news anymore. Did you know there are four coronaviruses that cause cold-like symptoms? I didn't, because I didn't really care. That's all Op is saying.
If we had invested more in developing vaccines and treatments for the common cold, then maybe we would have tricks that would have helped us beat covid faster.
Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#57If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons. If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!
And if so, how does the old strand die out in our world?
Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#58Of course, no way to control coordinated mask wearing for 7 billion people simultaneously without decades of planning. HIV has killed around 50 million over the past 40 years, and we know how to stop that but it is still endemic and will be for at least a century.
HIV is not asymptomatic though. If you have it you know it, and thus you can protect yourself and those around you. If we had an indication of who's a covid carrier we could have fought the pandemic a lot better.
Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is plenty of evidence to support the idea that as it becomes endemic, it will evolve toward yet-another-cold. There is no evidence in all of history for an endemic coronavirus that is not yet-another-cold. https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4361674/#!po=0.... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.g…
I am clueless but I'd like to ask: when you say "it will evolve toward yet-another-cold"... does it mean it'll be as harmless as the common cold or as common as the common cold but as dangerous as covid19 ?
Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
HIV is not asymptomatic though. If you have it you know it, and thus you can protect yourself and those around you. If we had an indication of who's a covid carrier we could have fought the pandemic a lot better.
HIV can absolutely be asymptomatic, and can be for long periods of time (~10 years in some cases). And it can be transmitted during this phase.