Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your options list supports my assertion: Identified developers = signed FYI: frogs actually do jump out of water as it gets hotter. You may be right that this changes in the future, but for now I am correct.
Apple's next move is to disallow unsigned software entirely, Gatekeeper popup or no. They already announced it for ARM Macs [0]. It currently allows adhoc signatures, but I'd be shocked if that didn't go away in the next couple of versions unless they were built locally. [0] https://developer.apple.com/documentation/macos-release-note...
Disallowing unsigned software altogether would contradict other statements they have made.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes something you can only enable from the command line.
They have clearly stated that Apple Silicon Macs will be open to whatever software you want, but they may well choose to make that more difficult for inexperienced users.