Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries • Hacker News Board

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#81

Post by Smutte » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 2:38 PM UTC

tom_mellior wrote: post #76

Smutte wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://imgur.com/a/sHq3gjp There you go. Data from official government agency. "Preliminary" and not full year since we're only in October 2020 now. https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkni...

Not sure what you're trying to show, but your screenshot is of a table showing very high excess mortality in Sweden in April. The Euromomo graphs show very high excess mortality in Sweden in April. I got the impression that you were trying to contradict something, but the data you post agree with the other data, so...?

First of all. There is one (perhaps two) month with excess mortality. "very high excess" is not a term I would use since it would leave almost no room between standard variance in death numbers and "high excess" or "medium excess" or "low excess". I see what mind-set you bring into this though - good, you are part of the group I wanted to reach.

I will post what I just posted below: "Do you need help interpreting the data and graph given previous conversation? The height of the bars represent the number of deaths over different years and the bars are basically same height. I.e. considering all deaths, covid and actions taken (no lockdown but more distancing), no more than usual have died. Especially considering last year was a bit lower and therefore likely some old people who didnt die last year unfortunately did so this year."

If you only look at one month then yes there is absolutely an increase. If you want to stare blindly at that month then go ahead. Scream if you want to also. But I think some might be interested in hearing that no more than usual have died in Sweden this year. I have seen similar stats for other countries.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#82

Post by hef19898 » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 3:13 PM UTC

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #73

hef19898 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess reopening the whole EU over summer to save what was left of the tourism industry didn't necessarily help. Not saying that I am against having loosened restrictions, but maybe we loosened things a tad too much. Because after the summer vacations were over, everyone went back to normal. People returned to offices, children to school. At schools, measures were in place for the first two weeks. Since then, busine…

The original goal was to lower the curve so that hospitals wouldn't be overloaded. To that end, the lockdowns have served their purpose.

They served that purpose very well, if you ask me. The goal now would be to minimize the impact on the economy as much as possible while minimizing the impact on people's everyday lives.

I am afraid that we traded our summer vacation against new lockdowns, so. Schools where I live already switch certain events to virtual, most likely cancel certain classes. And they are approaching the point where they are forced to close again. And we are only a couple of months into the new school year. Doesn't bode well.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#83

Post by cr1895 » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

withinboredom wrote: post #28

wk_end wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher. Is that based on anything? I’m skeptical - many places that took more severe measures did worse than places that took less severe measures (both within the US and internationally), and nowhere ended up with death rates per capita an order of magnitude larger than what we’re seeing in the US.

I have a hunch (based on family and friends in the US) that the US is the only country that the population did its best to not take the measures seriously. Here in the Netherlands masks aren’t required in stores, but people still wear them anyway. Same with Sweden and France when I visited there over the summer. (Though France does require it in stores IIRC).

>Here in the Netherlands masks aren’t required in stores, but people still wear them anyway.

I really disagree with your observations based on living in NL and visiting Sweden several times over the last few months. These are two very poor examples of countries where mask-wearing is prioritized and accepted.

The Dutch government only a week or two ago "urgently advised" wearing masks indoors, and even with that advice in my own experience a majority of people are not wearing one. Before that, hardly anyone wore a mask indoors. I've traveled to Antwerp a few times for work in the past few months, and the prevalence of masks there compared to NL is striking.

And Sweden generally has been quite averse to wearing masks in public...it's not ever been mandated anywhere, not even on transit like in NL.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200831/sweden-remains-an-outlier-d...

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#84

Post by nickff » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 4:50 PM UTC

evgen wrote: post #65

nickff wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China was trucking in loads of urns every day that were more than ten times larger then their reported death rates; doesn't that count as visible evidence?

Citation needed. This is the first I have heard of this and given how desperately the current administration wants to pin anything COVID-related on to China I think that this would have been widely publicized if it were actually true.

Did you even bother looking yourself? Here's the top link from a search for "China urns covid": https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/31/Deliver...

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#85

Post by disown » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

luu wrote: post #16

roenxi wrote: post #4

What really interests me is that, looking at an all-cause mortality graph [0] the coronavirus is clearly detectable but ultimately the numbers are pretty much business as usual. Although there are more deaths than is routine, going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal. It'll be fun when the dust settles to going back to look at alternative approaches to estimate how effective the lockdowns were. [0] https:…

> the numbers are pretty much business as usual . . . going purely by deaths the situation is mostly normal The article notes that, through July 25, there were 235,610 excess U.S. deaths. The link you gave shows that excess deaths started March 28th, for a period of ~119 days. Wikipedia says that the U.S. had 291,557 combat deaths during WWII, which was over a ~1366 day period of U.S. combat involvement if we count t…

> Since you're calling 3.77x the population-adjusted rate of WWII combat deaths "mostly normal"

This is an example of how statistics can mislead. Why not select the worst 119 days of ww2 and compare it to 119 days of covid? After all, most of 1366 days of ww2 didn't involve actual fighting. Also, are we including definitive covid deaths or "covid related deaths". Because if we included "ww2 related deaths and not just combat deaths", then I suspect that ratio would plummet towards 0.

> I would be curious to know what rate of death you would consider abnormal.

I guess it depends, but spike in deaths every now and then is normal even if it looks abnormal. It may sound counterintuitive but that's just life.

Your statistical analysis is intentionally dishonest. You cherrypicked the time frame and example to fit your agenda. How about try another set of data - the US combat deaths on D-Day ( 2500 deaths ) and extrapolate that to 119 days and population adjust and enjoy. Funny how that makes covid look like a walk in the park huh? But if I did that, it would be just as intellectually dishonest as your example.

Also, almost all of the combat deaths in ww2 was young healthy men whereas covid seems to afflict predominantly older people - almost all of them 45 and over. So not quite apples to apples right?

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#86

Post by tom_mellior » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 5:09 PM UTC

Smutte wrote: post #81

tom_mellior wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure what you're trying to show, but your screenshot is of a table showing very high excess mortality in Sweden in April. The Euromomo graphs show very high excess mortality in Sweden in April. I got the impression that you were trying to contradict something, but the data you post agree with the other data, so...?

First of all. There is one (perhaps two) month with excess mortality. "very high excess" is not a term I would use since it would leave almost no room between standard variance in death numbers and "high excess" or "medium excess" or "low excess". I see what mind-set you bring into this though - good, you are part of the group I wanted to reach. I will post what I just posted below: "Do you need help interpreting the…

> There is one (perhaps two) month with excess mortality. "very high excess" is not a term I would use...

The mortality this April was 13% higher than the next highest value in the table. 29% higher than the next highest April value in the table. If you really have a problem with "very high", we can agree on "high". But we do agree that (a) this is not just an accident but caused by a real-world cause, (b) that real-world cause is Covid-19, and (c) the spike could have been avoided or at least flattened. Yes?

> good, you are part of the group I wanted to reach.

If you really want to reach us, a good way would be to tell us what you really want to tell us. If what you want to tell us is that Sweden did everything right at all times, you'll have to argue a bit more explicitly.

> no more than usual have died in Sweden this year

Yes. Looks like after its disastrous April Sweden managed a good turnaround.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#87

Post by evgen » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 5:40 PM UTC

nickff wrote: post #84

evgen wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citation needed. This is the first I have heard of this and given how desperately the current administration wants to pin anything COVID-related on to China I think that this would have been widely publicized if it were actually true.

Did you even bother looking yourself? Here's the top link from a search for "China urns covid": https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/31/Deliver...

I did follow the link, and so far there seems to be a small cluster of stories all reprinting each other and the exact same pictures with reference to a single shipment to a single crematorium in late March.

One. Single. Event.

Where are the other shipments in to other cities? Where is the supply chain evidence that this was an across-the-board jump in urn orders and not a single entrepreneur aiming to pre-order big and then have inventory he could resell at a markup if things went bad? Where is the rest of the evidence?

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#88

Post by evgen » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 5:52 PM UTC

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #77

evgen wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citation needed. This is the first I have heard of this and given how desperately the current administration wants to pin anything COVID-related on to China I think that this would have been widely publicized if it were actually true.

China did originate the virus as far as anyone can tell, they were not forthright with evidence, didn’t shut down travel globally and they seemed to push malign influence through the WHO. It’s not hard to see they have lots of blame and that has nothing to do with the US administration.

The virus originated in China, but China did not 'originate the virus.' Please do not make unfounded speculation regarding the causality in this event.

China has not been completely forthright about the early stages of the covid's spread and they engaged in tactics similar to, but not quite as bad, as what the current US administration and some states have done to try to hide the scope of the disease within their jurisdiction. It seems like a lot of countries have done poorly at communicating with their citizens and with each other regarding covid.

China didn't shut down travel fast enough, but by the time things has started to appear and become concerning covid had already left China and was en route to Italy and the west coast of the US. Once the nature of the disease and particularly the asymptomatic transmission stage became clear everyone needed to adjust. To claim this is some fault of the Chinese government is pure BS.

As for pushing 'malign' interest, you are entitled to your own opinions but that seems to be another unfounded value judgement that is just as easily dismissed as right-wing propaganda.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#89

Post by Smutte » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 6:18 PM UTC

tom_mellior wrote: post #86

Smutte wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all. There is one (perhaps two) month with excess mortality. "very high excess" is not a term I would use since it would leave almost no room between standard variance in death numbers and "high excess" or "medium excess" or "low excess". I see what mind-set you bring into this though - good, you are part of the group I wanted to reach. I will post what I just posted below: "Do you need help interpreting the…

> There is one (perhaps two) month with excess mortality. "very high excess" is not a term I would use... The mortality this April was 13% higher than the next highest value in the table. 29% higher than the next highest April value in the table. If you really have a problem with "very high", we can agree on "high". But we do agree that (a) this is not just an accident but caused by a real-world cause, (b) that real-…

Im not interested in arguing with you. I wanted to show you the data so you have a chance to make up you own mind. My definition of "really reach us"(you) is that you have some more facts in this crazy world of lies, hysteria and ruined lives+businesses. If you then draw some other conclusion than I do, thats ok.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#90

Post by withinboredom » Tue, Oct 13, 2020, 7:12 PM UTC

cr1895 wrote: post #83

withinboredom wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a hunch (based on family and friends in the US) that the US is the only country that the population did its best to not take the measures seriously. Here in the Netherlands masks aren’t required in stores, but people still wear them anyway. Same with Sweden and France when I visited there over the summer. (Though France does require it in stores IIRC).

>Here in the Netherlands masks aren’t required in stores, but people still wear them anyway. I really disagree with your observations based on living in NL and visiting Sweden several times over the last few months. These are two very poor examples of countries where mask-wearing is prioritized and accepted. The Dutch government only a week or two ago "urgently advised" wearing masks indoors, and even with that advic…

I think it depends on where you go. At AH in our neighborhood, over 50% of people have a mask on. I went to Jumbo in another neighborhood today and no one had a mask on.