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Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

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Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#201

Post by danans »

epa wrote: post #197
danans wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is a building going up in Oakland right now where Factory_OS put out a press release that they had built it in ten days. But they spent 7 years getting approvals, 18 months in site prep, I'm currently gut remodeling a small house in Oakland. Permitting and regulations are a whopping 3% of the cost. The land (the existing property) is 50%, and 40% is building costs. Land costs (addressed via incremental upzoni…

I don't fully agree given that housing and materials prices rise every year. 7 year delay adds how much $ to a project in inflation?

Well delays can vary. My delay was 3 months, but that was due to COVID.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#202

Post by poulsbohemian »

august125 wrote: post #196
rapsey wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People lease land to build on instead of buy? That sounds absolutely bananas. (I'm not from the US so unfamiliar with your market).

Although I think throwaway is correct that that isn't what they meant, people do indeed lease land in the United States. It's more common in commercial real estate, but there are also (predatory, in my opinion) land leases for "manufactured" (i.e. mobile) homes where the resident buys the home but doesn't own the land under it.

Yes, throwaway understood my meaning... and you are right too that there are circumstances where people own a home but not the land underneath. Apart from the example you gave, I'm also vaguely aware of cases where tribes own reservation land where homes have been built by non-tribe members who technically have a lease to the land.

And actually you bring up another wrinkle, which is if you don't own the land underneath, there are plenty of lenders who also won't lend to you to buy a manufactured home, because they consider it to be personal property rather than a permanent dwelling (which they could more easily foreclose and sell)

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#203

Post by ako »

dcolkitt wrote: post #63
falcolas wrote: post #16

This article seems to be missing some critical information - does this proposed system help with anything but the framing? Because framing a house, even a two story house, only takes an experienced crew a couple of days. And in the neighborhoods springing up around here, they are using pre-fab framed walls (still using wooden studs (which are cheap and plentiful), but they arrive on site as whole walls). Before frami…

One big area where modular prefab can potentially make a difference is by reducing the need for skilled tradesmen, particularly electricians, plumbers and HVAC techs. In most growing American metros, a major constraining factor on housing supply is the lack of these skilled tradesmen. In contrast, drywall, painting, and landscaping tend to be lower-skilled and easier to draw from the general labor pool. You can have…

That sounds very much like the promise of low-code: use our pre-fab components to quickly assemble your software apps. You'll be able to this with lower skilled people, and no longer be limited by the lack skilled software engineers...

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#204

Post by swader999 »

poulsbohemian wrote: post #161
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ever notice why all the people satisfied with their custom home are either obscenely wealthy or the kind of people who buy a front end loader just because it's a good deal even if it needs work? There are two ways to get a custom home done right. 1. Be stupidly rich and don't give a crap about how much you spend 2. Do damn near all of it yourself.

Absolutely correct. In fact to expand on this slightly... I've had a lot of clients wanting to find land to build...what they don't understand is how few lenders are willing to lend on just land / single home building projects (at least in my market). Then you add in the well and septic where so many just waive their hands "no big deal right?" Um - it sure is a big deal if you are the "lucky" party who doesn't hit wa…

And don't close until you are sure you actually can get workable internet there too.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#205

Post by swader999 »

jeffbee wrote: post #4

Prefab is the wrong optimization. It targets a minor improvement in a small part of the overall budget. Most of the time and money of construction in America is tied up in land prices, permitting, and regulation. Prefab solves zero of these issues. There is a building going up in Oakland right now where Factory_OS put out a press release that they had built it in ten days. But they spent 7 years getting approvals, 18…

Wrong optimization. I think this is key. My house has prefab trusses, doors, windows, and many other already built components.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#206

Post by rswail »

rapsey wrote: post #184
poulsbohemian wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely correct. In fact to expand on this slightly... I've had a lot of clients wanting to find land to build...what they don't understand is how few lenders are willing to lend on just land / single home building projects (at least in my market). Then you add in the well and septic where so many just waive their hands "no big deal right?" Um - it sure is a big deal if you are the "lucky" party who doesn't hit wa…

People lease land to build on instead of buy? That sounds absolutely bananas. (I'm not from the US so unfamiliar with your market).

Check out who owns inner London land. Or the Duchy of Cornwall.

There are examples of "leases of years" like Canberra/ACT in Australia, where all titles are for 99 year leaseholds.

They've started renewing them since the first leases were granted in the 1920s.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#207

Post by lucioperca »

But what about the grey energy of these buildings? This claim of zero net energy homes seems dubious when one does not factor in the embedded energy of the building with all this metal. You can go a long way of heating your wooden house till this building will break even in terms of total energy consumed including building materials and shipping.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#208

Post by presentation »

ardy42 wrote: post #194
presentation wrote: post #186

I live in Japan, prefab homes here are extremely common [1] - there's an Asahi Kasei prefab 3-story apartment building going up next door to where I live, and from the old house's demolition to the new building's completion, the notification I received in the mail says it'll be about 6 months from start to finish. [1] https://www.curbed.com/2017/10/25/16534122/prefab-homes-manu...

> I live in Japan, prefab homes here are extremely common [1] Could that have anything to do with how the Japanese dislike "old" homes, and tend to demolish an existing home when buying a lot in order to build a new one for the new owner?

I'd expect that's a big part of it! The particular article I linked to points out that (creating the need for a lot more houses to get built). Also there's a shortage of skilled craftsmen in part due to the aging population, coupled with a mature robotics industry. Other costs like permitting is way way cheaper and quicker in Japan than the USA (like other posters have mentioned, building in a city like SF can take decades and millions just to get past that hurdle, and people can stop your project by saying that they don't like how it looks - which is an invalid complaint here), so the overall cost of building a home shifts toward the actual cost of the home and land, not legal fees.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#209

Post by rapsey »

rswail wrote: post #206
rapsey wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People lease land to build on instead of buy? That sounds absolutely bananas. (I'm not from the US so unfamiliar with your market).

Check out who owns inner London land. Or the Duchy of Cornwall. There are examples of "leases of years" like Canberra/ACT in Australia, where all titles are for 99 year leaseholds. They've started renewing them since the first leases were granted in the 1920s.

Well ok but those are exceptional cases. What the person was talking about was a generic case.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#210

Post by lifeisstillgood »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #140
pfhorge wrote: post #28

I built my current house recently, and our builder used a prefab factory in the region for some of the construction. I would _never_ do it again. The process has all the pitfalls of the waterfall software development model, but at the end you have to live in the failed project! It took months for the factory to do their pre-build engineering, and that's after they started the process using plans from my architect. Th…

You ever notice why all the people satisfied with their custom home are either obscenely wealthy or the kind of people who buy a front end loader just because it's a good deal even if it needs work? There are two ways to get a custom home done right. 1. Be stupidly rich and don't give a crap about how much you spend 2. Do damn near all of it yourself.

Isnt that the point of the article - the "bone structure" is supposedly built so that unskilled labour (ie you and three mates) can erect the building yourself?

I have to admit that having a prefab building that has one side a foot longer than the other side not sound like a condemnation of the concept but the factory that built it. I presume one would have recourse under contract for such a foul up?

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