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Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

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Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#161
post #28

I built my current house recently, and our builder used a prefab factory in the region for some of the construction. I would _never_ do it again. The process has all the pitfalls of the waterfall software development model, but at the end you have to live in the failed project! It took months for the factory to do their pre-build engineering, and that's after they started the process using plans from my architect. Th…

You ever notice why all the people satisfied with their custom home are either obscenely wealthy or the kind of people who buy a front end loader just because it's a good deal even if it needs work? There are two ways to get a custom home done right. 1. Be stupidly rich and don't give a crap about how much you spend 2. Do damn near all of it yourself.

Absolutely correct. In fact to expand on this slightly... I've had a lot of clients wanting to find land to build...what they don't understand is how few lenders are willing to lend on just land / single home building projects (at least in my market). Then you add in the well and septic where so many just waive their hands "no big deal right?" Um - it sure is a big deal if you are the "lucky" party who doesn't hit water for > 1000 feet. I've got a lot of prospective buyer / builders who show up with tech money and end up very surprised at how quickly you can eat through a million dollars cash when you start from bare land.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#162
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You keep downvoting me, but you’ve yet to explain where these jobs are coming from. The jobs Detroit lost didn’t shift, they were just lost forever. The people who held them now work minimum wage jobs or live off welfare. What are the electricians and plumbers doing instead? You can keep saying people will just retrain and do something else but that’s about as useful as Trump saying he’ll bring manufacturing jobs bac…

> The people who held them now work minimum wage jobs or live off welfare. You might want to provide a source for that one, there is still a huge amount of car industry expertise there including robotics, electric car engineering and thousands of support companies that feed the main companies.

Your name made my day.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#163
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd spend 20k in legal fees to gets a 5k refund after 3 years of litigation.

Is this really true? It doesn't seem like they consulted a lawyer. Consulting your contractor on what to do seems like a conflict of interest.

Probably depends on your local jurisdiction... I am not a lawyer but my own experiences tell me that any kind of civil case below about $50K, the courts would really you rather not bother them with this, and you are going to spend at least 20% of that and several years before you may or may not see a dime.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#164
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eric Schmidt stole this story from Milton Friedman. I'll restrain myself from any commentary on what sort of person that shows him to be, other than that implied in this sentence.

I didn't include a source because there probably isn't one. But he def told this story. I was there in person at a google off-site keynote

It certainly didn't originate with Schmidt, but according to this, it probably didn't originate with Friedman either:

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/10/10/spoons-shovels/

Though he's best known for it.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#165
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s better - everyone who lost their jobs picks a new career and retrains doing something new that is valued by society, or the government subsidizes unvalued industries that no one wants just so people never experience any pain? I’m sympathetic that government can help those who lose jobs. My preference is straight-up cash transfers so they can pick their own schools and move to where jobs are, rather than a gove…

You keep downvoting me, but you’ve yet to explain where these jobs are coming from. The jobs Detroit lost didn’t shift, they were just lost forever. The people who held them now work minimum wage jobs or live off welfare. What are the electricians and plumbers doing instead? You can keep saying people will just retrain and do something else but that’s about as useful as Trump saying he’ll bring manufacturing jobs bac…

I have friends who are economists, and I get in this argument with them all the time over beers.

There's economic optimization, and social optimization, and those are two different things that are often totally orthagonal.

Economic progress is often horrendously negative for people's lives and livelihoods. People don't just pick-up and move, or re-train in a completely different field with the fluidity that is often indicated, and disruption often destroys lives. This is why income inequality is getting really worrisome, and there's the huge debate over college education costs, and you see so many people now living in their cars because they're chronically under-employed. This is why Trump was pandering to Pennsylvania coal miners and the like. There are millions and millions of people kind of stuck and not sure how to move forward. Everybody in this country can't just be a fullstack web guy, and the alternatives are increasingly working for minimum wage at two jobs, each of which keeps you under 20 hours so they don't have to pay benefits.

That being said, you can't just put the brakes on progress so that people doing things that we don't need anymore are kept happy.

Ideally, we'd have mechanisms in place to help people transition, but we really don't. The best we have is things like the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, various infrastructure programs (just big employment schemes), and affordable Community College vocational programs. The worst we have are predatory vocational programs that re-train people with useless skills, which are essentially scams to cash in on predatory student loans and GI Bill money.

This is the crux of the 2016 election, and although the virus has hijacked 2020 it probably would have been the crux of that one as well. You have Yang and Sanders proposing massive reforms, AOC with the Green New Deal, contrasted with Trump pushing a regressive approach, and everybody's polarized and yada yada.

Nobody has a good answer yet, or 300 million people wouldn't currently be arguing about it. Ideally we'd have a temporary system of 'engineered inefficiency' in the economy that would help people with legacy skills transition into new fields when employment dried up. But, nobody knows how to politically design, implement, or fund anything like that. So, what we have is this and it sucks.

I hope people smarter than me are working on this problem. I feel horrible about all the folks who have just gotten screwed, and have lost their homes, and are trapped in cycles of poverty. But, I mean, we are debating with strangers on the internet, so you know, no ill will towards anyone even if they disagree.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#166
post #4

Prefab is the wrong optimization. It targets a minor improvement in a small part of the overall budget. Most of the time and money of construction in America is tied up in land prices, permitting, and regulation. Prefab solves zero of these issues. There is a building going up in Oakland right now where Factory_OS put out a press release that they had built it in ten days. But they spent 7 years getting approvals, 18…

> There is a building going up in Oakland right now where Factory_OS put out a press release that they had built it in ten days. But they spent 7 years getting approvals, 18 months in site prep,

I'm currently gut remodeling a small house in Oakland. Permitting and regulations are a whopping 3% of the cost.

The land (the existing property) is 50%, and 40% is building costs.

Land costs (addressed via incremental upzoning) and build costs (addressed with more efficient building technology) are the 2 biggest things to address to make housing affordable, not the cost of permits.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#167
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You keep downvoting me, but you’ve yet to explain where these jobs are coming from. The jobs Detroit lost didn’t shift, they were just lost forever. The people who held them now work minimum wage jobs or live off welfare. What are the electricians and plumbers doing instead? You can keep saying people will just retrain and do something else but that’s about as useful as Trump saying he’ll bring manufacturing jobs bac…

I’m not downvoting you - on HN you can’t downvote someone you are replying to. It’s the rest of HN that is downvoting your arguments. Tons of jobs we have now didn’t exist 5, 10, 25 years ago. Every time a mass amount of jobs are lost when an industry collapses, they always say “this time is different!” I just fundamentally disagree with that premise. There will always be work to do and someone willing to pay for it.…

I think the sentiment you are responding to is the erosion of good jobs. There are tons of new jobs, but for those impacted by this stuff very few of them are good jobs that pay a middle-class income (I know, I don't have a cite, but I'm explaining a sentiment, not a fact - so iono I don't got it).

A contractor in a town where the jobs dried up might work at Lowe's now for example, where they would be kept under 20 hours a week so Lowe's doesn't have to pay benefits, and they could look forward to living in a van off of social security when they retire (source - this is my brother in law at 55 y/o - he has no idea how computers work, and desperately just wants to go back to laying tile like he did for most of his life - lost work - got a job at Lowes a few years back - just laid off actually, due to the virus - he's 100% screwed). There are a lot of these folks floating around, and what has happened to them is absolutely tragic.

Ideally he should re-train in something, but what often winds up happening is that they get sucked into for-profit colleges that encourage them to take out predatory high-interest loans for training that lead to job markets that are either oversaturated, or misrepresented. Then come the payday loans, then come the repossessions.

Ideally those people would just buy a bunch of NoStarch books and become fullstack developers or something, but that's not how people work, unfortunately and we just haven't figured out a good mechanism to help keep those folks on their feet.

The person you're responding to is waaaaaay too angry, and I don't believe you deserve to be on the receiving-end of that, but they may be going through some really rough stuff right now. There's a lot of people who have suddenly found themselves unemployed and homeless and they may very well be in that situation.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#168

"There was no standard building approach, and the ultimate cost to build his house would depend primarily on however his builder chose to embark on the project. " This sounds exactly like software development

Anyone who has built a house off an architect's "plans" would probably feel right at home following a software design spec I'm sure.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#170

Real estate agent here... in my market there are a number of mid-century homes that have the very square look of a manufactured home. Even looking vaguely like a manufactured home is enough to keep people away from them. My own observations are that newer pre-fab / manufactured can be very well built. We have a lot of people coming here looking for rural retreats - truth is, if you are way off the grid, a manufacture…

If you don’t mind sharing (I imagine it only increases business) what market is this that has plentiful, cookie cutter houses being declined?

As someone in a big city, daydreaming about picking the family up to a bigger living arrangement, hearing that there are perfectly-serviceable houses being ignored sounds like a great opportunity

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