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Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

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Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#131

Post by moltar »

pfhorge wrote: post #28

I built my current house recently, and our builder used a prefab factory in the region for some of the construction. I would _never_ do it again. The process has all the pitfalls of the waterfall software development model, but at the end you have to live in the failed project! It took months for the factory to do their pre-build engineering, and that's after they started the process using plans from my architect. Th…

I think these problems are unique to your type of home maybe.

I have been to a Bone Structure presentation. They fabricate all parts and interfaces using computer operated cutters with extreme precision from CAD plans. Note that parts are made of metal, not wood.

The structure is then aligns perfectly and all connection holes align perfectly as well.

The building is then assembled using just an electric screw driver, on sight. They claimed that almost anyone could do it, like IKEA. But they still require skilled technicians. But the point was that it isn’t a rocket science and plans are designed in such a way that you can’t really mess it up too much.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#133

Post by macintux »

jnwatson wrote: post #106
pfhorge wrote: post #28

I built my current house recently, and our builder used a prefab factory in the region for some of the construction. I would _never_ do it again. The process has all the pitfalls of the waterfall software development model, but at the end you have to live in the failed project! It took months for the factory to do their pre-build engineering, and that's after they started the process using plans from my architect. Th…

A coworker had a similar story with his prefab. After it was delivered (and it comes delivered with sheetrock walls, electrical, and subfloor), my coworker noticed that the the factory forgot a step: the plumbing. The builder had to rip out lots of the sheetrock and install plumbing. Lots of mistakes occur while building a house. The difference is that when the workers are already in the field, it is generally quite…

If a factory “forgets” the plumbing, I question whether it’s valid to call it a factory at all. What a nightmare.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#134

Post by michaelmrose »

tw04 wrote: post #91
dcolkitt wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One big area where modular prefab can potentially make a difference is by reducing the need for skilled tradesmen, particularly electricians, plumbers and HVAC techs. In most growing American metros, a major constraining factor on housing supply is the lack of these skilled tradesmen. In contrast, drywall, painting, and landscaping tend to be lower-skilled and easier to draw from the general labor pool. You can have…

> One big area where modular prefab can potentially make a difference is by reducing the need for skilled tradesmen, particularly electricians, plumbers and HVAC techs. To what end? As a country we're already struggling to create enough middle-class jobs and you're suggesting we try to gut another whole sector. So that owners/executives of prefab factories can pocket the money? If you think it's going to reduce cost…

No company exists to create jobs and nobody ought to wish any product particularly a vital resource like housing that everyone needs cost more in order to transfer money to the middle class workforce.

If you want to do that just be straightforward about it and directly raise that money via taxes and give it to families.

It will be increasingly obvious as increasing automation kills jobs that ultimately probably wont ever be fully replaced that we need a solution that isn't deliberate inefficiency to maintain jobs.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#135

Post by bobthepanda »

ThatGeoGuy wrote: post #112
seibelj wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

I think your example isn't completely off the mark, but I do think the article itself actually answers this: there is a shortage in trade labour in the non-commercial construction sector in (North) America. We are also at a cross-roads with regards to having a housing crisis. There are many places now (Bay Area, Boulder) where housing is skyrocketing not because the value is naturally increasing, but is instead being…

I don't know that you could avoid the crunch. Markets take time to respond to things, and the kind of housing that is prohibited, multifamily and anything >2 stories, is one where you progressively need more and more specialized tradesmen.

The US used to have prefab apartment block construction, as did most Western public housing programs, but generally speaking they have not held up over time.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#136

Post by bobthepanda »

tw04 wrote: post #123
seibelj wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

I see you ALSO failed to explain what the replacement jobs for these highly skilled, well-paid employees will be. Horse tradesman became car dealerships. Elevator operator was never a skilled position in the first place. The internet has actually created a massive crisis in the western world that we're just now starting to realize - local newspapers going out of business is HORRIBLE for a functioning democracy, and n…

ATMs actually led to an increase in bank branches and employees, because while they did replace positions they made it cheaper to open branches; bank tellers can be used more profitably than just doing extremely routine deposit and withdrawals. If building becomes a lot less bottlenecked, the same may apply.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#137

Post by marcusverus »

andrewflnr wrote: post #111
seibelj wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

This is potentially very much like saying, "we burned this little bit of fuel, and all that happened was the fire got brighter because it spread to more fuel! It can never go out!". There's no reason to expect the job-generation cycle to last forever. In fact there's every reason to believe it can't. The question is whether it ends on a scale more like decades or centuries. To blindly assume that things will continue…

I agree that the job-generation cycle may not last forever. But in order to oppose new tech as a bad thing right now, you have to make the case that the job-generation cycle is broken right now.

Arguing against new tech now because of some inevitable eventual breakdown of the job-generation cycle is just luddism with extra steps.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#138

Post by robocat »

vannevar wrote: post #43
jeffbee wrote: post #4

Prefab is the wrong optimization. It targets a minor improvement in a small part of the overall budget. Most of the time and money of construction in America is tied up in land prices, permitting, and regulation. Prefab solves zero of these issues. There is a building going up in Oakland right now where Factory_OS put out a press release that they had built it in ten days. But they spent 7 years getting approvals, 18…

Does prefab go much beyond framing? The NAHB estimates that framing is only 17% of the cost of a house(1), so even cutting that cost in half doesn't save much on the whole project. (1) https://www.nahbclassic.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=734&gener... .

> so even cutting that cost in half doesn't save much on the whole project.

Houses are usually a leveraged investment. If you put down 5%, and prefab saves you 5%, you have massively reduced your risk of default during a downturn.

And if you expect it to take 20 years to pay off your mortgage, and framing saves 5%, that’s one year saved, which is massive IMHO.

Obviously a lot of assumptions to the above e.g. everyone else doesn’t get the 5% savings, and everyone doesn’t just bid up new house prices by 5% (because they are bounded by their mortgage which is related to their earnings, not costs).

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#139

Post by recursivedoubts »

oh_sigh wrote: post #27
recursivedoubts wrote: post #15

It once had, at least in the western united states. And people now pay a lot of money for those prefab houses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Modern_Homes

Those are kit homes, not prefab homes.

The article is in the Wikipedia category "Prefabricated Homes"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Prefabricated_houses

This article, from a builder, indicates that Sears homes are considered prefabricated by some people in the industry:

https://www.protohomes.com/blog/prefab-vs-modular-manufactur...

What is your differentiation between kit homes and prefabricated homes?

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#140

Post by throwaway0a5e »

pfhorge wrote: post #28

I built my current house recently, and our builder used a prefab factory in the region for some of the construction. I would _never_ do it again. The process has all the pitfalls of the waterfall software development model, but at the end you have to live in the failed project! It took months for the factory to do their pre-build engineering, and that's after they started the process using plans from my architect. Th…

You ever notice why all the people satisfied with their custom home are either obscenely wealthy or the kind of people who buy a front end loader just because it's a good deal even if it needs work? There are two ways to get a custom home done right.

1. Be stupidly rich and don't give a crap about how much you spend

2. Do damn near all of it yourself.

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