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Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

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Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#121

Post by [deleted] »

tw04 wrote: post #91
dcolkitt wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One big area where modular prefab can potentially make a difference is by reducing the need for skilled tradesmen, particularly electricians, plumbers and HVAC techs. In most growing American metros, a major constraining factor on housing supply is the lack of these skilled tradesmen. In contrast, drywall, painting, and landscaping tend to be lower-skilled and easier to draw from the general labor pool. You can have…

> One big area where modular prefab can potentially make a difference is by reducing the need for skilled tradesmen, particularly electricians, plumbers and HVAC techs. To what end? As a country we're already struggling to create enough middle-class jobs and you're suggesting we try to gut another whole sector. So that owners/executives of prefab factories can pocket the money? If you think it's going to reduce cost…

[deleted]

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#122

Post by rektide »

jeffbee wrote: post #4

Prefab is the wrong optimization. It targets a minor improvement in a small part of the overall budget. Most of the time and money of construction in America is tied up in land prices, permitting, and regulation. Prefab solves zero of these issues. There is a building going up in Oakland right now where Factory_OS put out a press release that they had built it in ten days. But they spent 7 years getting approvals, 18…

> Most of the time and money of construction in America is tied up in land prices, permitting, and regulation. Prefab solves zero of these issues.

I'd hypothesize that access to affordable, reproducible, medium-scale home production would allow a lot of new places to try to develop. Land prices, permitting, & regulation are very different in different places. The places where these are not the major factors could have a better chance, if home construction could be more economical & effective & appealing, which pre-fabs might be able to help with.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#123

Post by tw04 »

seibelj wrote: post #103
tw04 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One big area where modular prefab can potentially make a difference is by reducing the need for skilled tradesmen, particularly electricians, plumbers and HVAC techs. To what end? As a country we're already struggling to create enough middle-class jobs and you're suggesting we try to gut another whole sector. So that owners/executives of prefab factories can pocket the money? If you think it's going to reduce cost…

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

I see you ALSO failed to explain what the replacement jobs for these highly skilled, well-paid employees will be.

Horse tradesman became car dealerships. Elevator operator was never a skilled position in the first place. The internet has actually created a massive crisis in the western world that we're just now starting to realize - local newspapers going out of business is HORRIBLE for a functioning democracy, and nations across the globe are suing companies like google because of it.

You're insinuating that there will somehow be a new job for the folks put out of work, but fail to explain what that is. Look no further than Detroit, hundreds of thousands of middle class jobs that are simply gone. More weight on the economy, fewer middle class citizens, but a handful of shareholders and executives that are significantly more wealthy.

While I appreciate the condescending tone, I don't think you've even begun to put critical thinking skills to the problem. You're just parroting the same old tired story that justified "trick down economics" which is also based on a reality that doesn't exist.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#124

Post by yazaddaruvala »

xnx wrote: post #33
modeless wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The advantage to me seems like it should be in quality and consistency, not cost and speed. Building houses is fast enough, and as you say the cost of the land often dominates, but the quality of houses is appallingly bad compared to consumer items mass produced in factories.

This. I want homes as well designed, engineered and built as iPhones, or at least automobiles.

FWIW, I have a hunch that in 10 years TSLA will start building homes and AAPL will likely start building condo buildings.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#125

Post by sjg007 »

bluGill wrote: post #32
sjg007 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? There's a shortage of carpenters so if you can go prefab it is a win. In fact the article shows that if you can build a house faster with prefab at the same cost as a traditional house that's a win.

There isn't a shortage of carpenters. There is a shortage willing to work for the wages offered. I've done carpentry work in the past, offer enough money and I'll leave my tech job. I'm not the only one who could do carpentry for the right price.

Around here, the carpenters I know all drive very nice trucks and are booked solid making $$$$. These guys are running their own 2-4 person shops though.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#126

Post by Klinky »

LatteLazy wrote: post #51
potiuper wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not sue for breach of contract / design?

You'd spend 20k in legal fees to gets a 5k refund after 3 years of litigation.

Is this really true? It doesn't seem like they consulted a lawyer. Consulting your contractor on what to do seems like a conflict of interest.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#127

Post by seibelj »

tw04 wrote: post #123
seibelj wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the fallacy - The Fallacy - that is always made by those who don’t understand economics. Why did we build the car when it put all of the horse tradesmen out of business? Why do we use elevator buttons and put the doormen out of a job? Why did we create the Internet when perfectly good newspaper printers could pass information to us? You are making an age-old argument that we need to reduce productivity in ord…

I see you ALSO failed to explain what the replacement jobs for these highly skilled, well-paid employees will be. Horse tradesman became car dealerships. Elevator operator was never a skilled position in the first place. The internet has actually created a massive crisis in the western world that we're just now starting to realize - local newspapers going out of business is HORRIBLE for a functioning democracy, and n…

What’s better - everyone who lost their jobs picks a new career and retrains doing something new that is valued by society, or the government subsidizes unvalued industries that no one wants just so people never experience any pain?

I’m sympathetic that government can help those who lose jobs. My preference is straight-up cash transfers so they can pick their own schools and move to where jobs are, rather than a government-run school loaded with bureaucracy. But artificially preserving shrinking industries just so we can all act like we still need them around is a waste of tax dollars and is logically inconsistent.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#128

Post by sjg007 »

bluGill wrote: post #67
amelius wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so prefab can still be a win if it's cheaper?

Problem is it isn't much cheaper. There is still work to do on site. Prefab needs labor in the factory. Prefab generally has higher shipping costs. These mostly balance out.

I personally think prefab is a win if it results in a faster construction time.

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#129

Post by [deleted] »

Joker_vD wrote: post #21
mjh2539 wrote: post #5

Because housing never was, and never will be, a commodity...at least not for people who can afford it, which is most of us in the 1st world.

But there is also the 2nd world, you know? Say, here's an example from Czechia: [0]. Here is an example from (East) Germany: [1]. And from the USSR, too: [2], [3]. Not the prettiest, not the roomiest, but... cheap, somewhat cheap, and therefore, pretty abundant. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panel%C3%A1k [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plattenbau [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchyovka [3] https://ru.wi…

[deleted]

Re: Why hasn't prefab construction taken over?

#130

Post by moltar »

I’ve been to two Bone Structure presentations. And visited two build project sites.

This technology is indeed cutting edge and promising. I do dream of owning a BS home one day. It’s an engineering marvel.

But the reason it hasn’t taken over is simply because it’s still more expensive than traditional builds. At least in Canada where wood is cheap and buildings don’t need such high earthquake protections.

Cool time lapse of a build: https://youtu.be/vOC_V76v9j0

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