Abolish the Cash Bail System • Hacker News Board

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#261

Post by nojvek » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 3:03 PM UTC

kstenerud wrote: post #245

throwaway316943 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main problem isn’t flight or cinemaesque disappearing, it’s simply avoiding arrest and being out in the community reoffending. If you’re busted for dealing meth and get released pending trial and then don’t show you’re probably just out there selling meth again, crashing at a buddy’s place and avoiding getting pulled over.

In Europe, the small minority deemed likely to reoffend are simply kept in jail pending trial. Are you saying that people likely to reoffend should not be allowed to do so unless they can afford the cash bail (which will be reimbursed once they show up to trial)? Wasn't the purpose of bail an incentive to ensure people show up to their trial? How would expanding the scope of bail's purpose to "keeping people from reo…

How do they determine “likely to offend”. In use such a vague thing can easily boil down to “while people are less likely to offend than black people”. So those who could get out by paying bail now are eternally stuck.

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#262

Post by toss1 » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 3:06 PM UTC

This point seems like a "well, duh..." - they are basically putting low-risk people in a crime bootcamp - surrounding them with people more experienced in crime, and nothing to do but talk to them.

Psych studies show that people trend toward the average of the 5 personalities with whom they surround themselves. So, let's take low-risk people who have made a mistake and surround them with people who make a habit of making mistakes. Brilliant! /

"Another study conducted in Kentucky found that detaining low- and moderate-risk defendants is strongly correlated with higher rates of new criminal activity both during the retrial period and years after case disposition. The same study found that as the length of pretrial detention increases up to 30 days, recidivism rates for low- and moderate-risk defendants also increases significantly. When held 2–3 days, for instance, low-risk defendants are almost 40 percent more likely to commit new crimes before trial than equivalent defendants held no more than 24 hours. When held 8–14 days, low-risk defendants are 51 percent more likely to commit another crime within two years after completion of their cases than equivalent defendants held no more than 24 hours."

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#263

Post by throwaway316943 » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 3:07 PM UTC

Anthony-G wrote: post #257

throwaway316943 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main problem isn’t flight or cinemaesque disappearing, it’s simply avoiding arrest and being out in the community reoffending. If you’re busted for dealing meth and get released pending trial and then don’t show you’re probably just out there selling meth again, crashing at a buddy’s place and avoiding getting pulled over.

Just being arrested for something doesn't make someone guilty of an offence. The for a trial is to determine whether the accused is guilty of an offence and whether or not they should be removed from the community to prevent them from re-offending. In any case, drug dealers are more likely to have the cash to pay their bail and get back out on the street than the regular working poor.

Drug dealers are not rich or even middle class. That’s more Hollywood nonsense.

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#264

Post by nojvek » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 3:12 PM UTC

TIL: US Bail system is a bond. I.e One has to pay that money to get out of jail before trial. If they skip trial, they don’t get the money back, otherwise they do.

Then there are Proffesional Bail Agents. https://www.allcitybailbonds.com/bail-calculator . They charge 10% of bail bond as a fee. Bail agents will pay the bond and recover the money when the person shows up at trial.

So this has the same effect as college loans. Colleges keep on amping up their fees, since students don’t fully understand how loans work. Or how healthcare keeps on getting expensive YoY.

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#265

Post by dragonwriter » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 3:16 PM UTC

koolba wrote: post #223

grumple wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I only skimmed that page you linked, because I was looking for the bit that mentions that people can spend years in jail awaiting trial. We’ve had more than a few stories of this happening at Rikers island, only for charges to be dropped altogether. Cash bail and pretrial jail time exist to force quick plea bargains and criminal records on poor people. There’s not really justification for it. If you aren’t suspected…

> Cash bail and pretrial jail time exist to force quick plea bargains and criminal records on poor people. There’s not really justification for it. If you aren’t suspected of a serious violent crime or other crimes against people (rather than property), you shouldn’t be in jail. This sounds fine in theory but in practice it leads to repeated infractions just shy of the incarceration limit. https://www.foxnews.com/us/…

Neither of your sources (even if they were systematic rather than essentially anecdotal) identify anything like the cause you've posited (one is a post hoc ergo propter hoc with a change in post-conviction punishment, the other links no cause or even preceding change, neither indicates anything relating to pre-trial detention policy even viewed in the most favorable light.)

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#266

Post by dragonwriter » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 3:22 PM UTC

ars wrote: post #249

dragonwriter wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Poor people get medicaid, which is actually pretty decent insurance since it's private (non government) insurance, paid for by the government. Medicaid isn't consistently private insurance paid for by the government; though “managed risk” through outside (sometimes still publicly operated; several of them in California are county-run) plans is an increasingly popular model, though many states continue to have tradi…

> and lots of money, effort, and propaganda has expended I don't know anything about propaganda, I just know that my insurance got way way way worse after ACA. If you think every such report is propaganda you are not being honest with yourself.

> I don't know anything about propaganda, I just know that my insurance got way way way worse after ACA.

I suspect you know it got more expensive for the benefits from the perspective of someone not first starting to need it for something in the high tail of cost. The likelihood that you would get thrown off of your insurance in that case without effective remedy is something you probably haven't directly experienced, but it's a pretty significant factor in the quality of insurance, and is a very major cost drivers in the change from pre-ACA policy to the ACA.

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#267

Post by calt » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 3:57 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #200

calt wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And thus the cycle of poverty continues and meritocracy descends into hereditary meritocracy, which isn't a meritocracy at all. > I don't see how that money can be reclaimed except for the taxpayer covering it. I see that the economic cost of perpetuating economic classes and the economic disruption of confinement without trial far outweigh this taxpayer cost. Taxpayers win when justice prevails. This kind of extreme…

> I see that the economic cost of perpetuating economic classes and the economic disruption of confinement without trial far outweigh this taxpayer cost. Sure, but in this instance the person you are metaphorically telling that to is the person who is paying half the costs in their capacity as a taxpayer. If there is a scheme that is cheaper than incarceration for 3rd parties and gets everyone to court on time then I…

I never said that the rich shouldn't be rich. I am implying that the poor shouldn't be held down. And I'm also arguing that having a healthy society with a functioning welfare system reduces crime and ultimately reduces these costs.

But I think that's besides the point on this particular issue. I can't imagine whatever costs you're imagining are involved in tracking down people skipping court dates would tax the rich out of their privilege.

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#268

Post by throwaway17_17 » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 3:58 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #198

throwaway17_17 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data, as amazed by organizations like the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, tends to show that prosecutors accept upwards of 80% of charges submitted for prosecution by law enforcement and that grand jury’s will indict upwards of 95% of cases presented to them. [1] The common phrasing amongst lawyers is that a grand jury will indict a ham sandwich and that a DA will accept as many charges at the h…

Interesting. So using the rough numbers, an average of 68% of people (85% * 80%) arrested will agree to a plea agreement.

That is probably a fair assumption of the average on a national scale. I know in my jurisdiction it is somewhere near 88%.

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#269

Post by throwaway17_17 » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 4:01 PM UTC

throwaway316943 wrote: post #194

throwaway17_17 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is clearly not a universal truth in the US justice system. It can be very, very simple to be suddenly and through no criminal fault of a defendant’s own that they end up in jail. [1] 1 - source is myself, my clients, and my jurisdiction’s arrest statistics, along with many,many media reports hat prove your point not true.

There seems to be a lot of confusion over this. I suppose because many people here don’t have direct experience. I’m wondering if there’s a good public source for arrest statistics and records that would go into more detail.

I would seriously doubt a good source exists. In fact, I am as certain as a single person in a single jurisdiction can be, that the records required to generate those statistics would require information unwillingly released from multiple governmental entities and that those entities would make it as hard as possible to generate meaningful data.

Re: Abolish the Cash Bail System

#270

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 4:13 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #212

mtgx wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keep in mind, it isn't easy to suddenly and accidentally get thrown in jail. Have you not paid attention to any protest in the US whatsoever in the past 10-15 years? It's VERY easy to get thrown in jail, even when judges have ruled mere months before that it's illegal for police to keep arresting protesters.

A ruling that you can’t be arrested for protesting does not mean you can’t be arrested while protesting. Batter a cop? You’re probably going for a ride even if you were at a protest, which seems fairly reasonable.

[deleted]