Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia • Hacker News Board

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#101

Post by 0-_-0 » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 2:55 PM UTC

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #85

dustinmoris wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the UK chart also shows that: - Influenza and Pneumonia are counted as one, because the majority of Pneumonia deaths are due to Influenza - Influenza and Pneumonia deaths have been SUBSTANTIALLY lower ever single month in 2020 than the five year average - Of the deaths where both influenza and pneumonia, and COVID-19 were mentioned on the death certificate, the underlying cause of death was counted as COVID-19 i…

> It seems the people who are dying from COVID-19 are those who have reached an age which is well beyond the average life expectancy of a first world country. Some data in support of this: „According to the CDC’s data, the survival rate for COVID-19 is as follows: 0-19: 99.997% 20-49: 99.98% 50-69: 99.5% 70 & over: 94.6% Life expectancy in the USA per CDC: 78.7 (2018)“ [0] [0] https://twitter.com/drsimonegold/status/…

I belive the average age of people who die from COVID is higher than the average of age of people who die

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#102

Post by MagnumOpus » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 4:37 PM UTC

gridlockd wrote: post #70

evgen wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors like Norway, Finland, and Denmark and the cost of Sweden's failed response becomes pretty obvious.

You are cherry-picking countries based on geographic proximity, but that's not really a meaningful factor. Germany is right next to France, France had the stricter lockdown, yet Germany has no excess mortality . Meanwhile, Norway has almost twice the per-capita GDP of the other nordic countries. Finland has no large metropolitan area. Sweden has more people in elderly care. Lots of factors to consider, but geographic…

> France had the stricter lockdown

You are begging the question. France might have stricter rules, but didn't enforce them. German police enforced (and enforces) the rules that they have in terms of contact tracing, quarantine/isolation, indoors mask rules, regional/local lockdowns etc far more rapidly and stringently than France, Spain, UK or US. (Not as well as East Asian countries, but in European comparison the stereotype of following orders kind of works.

Also Sweden does not only have geographic proximity to Norway and Denmark, but similar holiday travel behaviour, similar wealth level and business travel pattern, similar cultural mores of proximity. A far far more even comparison than with France, say. (And yes Finland has cities, ever heard of Helsinki with 1.4m people in the metro area?)

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#103

Post by AstralStorm » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 5:24 PM UTC

sdfkkksdfsdff wrote: post #72

zpeti wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Influenza is contained because there is some form of herd immunity already. Remember COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus, which is why it's spread so much so fast, no one is immune at first. But to suggest that the covid death numbers will be this high year after year after year is unlikely in my opinion, as is shown by the fact that many places with big first waves (north italy, sweden, london) don't have a second wave…

Influenza is also new every year. There have been other Coronaviruses before.

Not exactly new. Partial immunity to many strains of flu is common and widespread. Not so much to SARS family coronaviruses. (Which are very different from other coronaviruses, much more than flu strains between each other.)

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#104

Post by AstralStorm » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 5:32 PM UTC

collyw wrote: post #54

gridlockd wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The confusion lies in "just the flu". Actual Influenza is in fact quite dangerous. However, we need to compare COVID-19 to Influenza to get some perspective. I would argue that Influenza is worse than COVID, for the simple reason that it kills more young people and children. The average age of a COVID fatality is higher than life expectancy. Influenza destroys more years of life. We also need to make a distinction be…

> Actual Influenza is in fact quite dangerous. Agreed, but we don't destroy economies over it, we just get on with things and accept it for what it is.

Except influenza is nowhere near spreading as fast. If let unchecked, many millions of people would be dead - this has been avoided only by control measures, and we're not past it yet.

If it's similar seasonality to Spanish flu, expect 4 waves. This is start of the second wave, likely biggest.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#105

Post by pwinnski » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

rimliu wrote: post #34

bb123 wrote: post #2

This is pretty damming to anyone who claims "its just the flu": “More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia." “The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average." “Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death recor…

> This is pretty damming to anyone who claims "its just > the flu" Any discussion about the COVID deaths that does not take age into account is not worth the time. For the younger population it may actually look better than the flu.

Most of "the younger population" you refer to doesn't live isolated away from everyone else, so their own personal health isn't the only factor to consider.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#106

Post by gridlockd » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 6:46 PM UTC

AstralStorm wrote: post #104

collyw wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Actual Influenza is in fact quite dangerous. Agreed, but we don't destroy economies over it, we just get on with things and accept it for what it is.

Except influenza is nowhere near spreading as fast. If let unchecked, many millions of people would be dead - this has been avoided only by control measures, and we're not past it yet. If it's similar seasonality to Spanish flu, expect 4 waves. This is start of the second wave, likely biggest.

> If let unchecked, many millions of people would be dead - this has been avoided only by control measures, and we're not past it yet.

This is an unfalsifiable claim, considering that virtually every country has done something to inhibit spread. It's also meaningless, because nobody is saying that nothing should be done to inhibit spread.

The question is, what should be done? How many people-years can we realistically save, and at what cost? Every year, almost 3 million Americans will die of any cause. If we take a CFR of 0.4%, and a "herd immunity" threshold of 70%, the upper bound of deaths in the US from COVID-19 is under a million. The average age of a COVID-19 fatality is higher than life expectancy, which means that half of these deaths would've occured under any circumstance, in the near future. We can see high excess mortality right now, but we haven't seen how that translates into lowered mortality in the future.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#107

Post by Yetanfou » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 9:00 PM UTC

goalieca wrote: post #89

cygx wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no worse than surrounding countries Deaths per 1k population: total last month Sweden 0.59 0.0058 Denmark 0.11 0.0053 Finland 0.063 0.0016 Norway 0.051 0.0020

I’m tired of seeing scoreboard style comparisons everywhere as some sort of gotcha. Any scientific analysis worth its salt will look into the values to start explaining the numbers and put it all into context. For instance, can we explain where Sweden’s deaths occurred? Large care homes (100+ residents) that were ill prepared? Are they expected to have a large amount or average amount of excess deaths at the end of 2…

> For instance, can we explain where Sweden’s deaths occurred? Large care homes (100+ residents) that were ill prepared?

A large problem in Sweden is that many of the staff in care homes do not speak Swedish or don't speak/read it well. This has led to the instructions on how and when to use PPE not being followed or not being followed well which led to a large number of infections in care homes [1]. Since people in care homes tend to be part of high-risk groups for severe COVID-19 this had led to a large number of deaths which could have been prevented. I stated this in the original message ('Apart from some bad mistakes in the beginning where the infection was allowed to spread in care facilities').

[1] https://www.sydsvenskan.se/2020-07-10/svag-svenska-kan-ha-pa...

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#108

Post by Yetanfou » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 9:15 PM UTC

gerikson wrote: post #90

Yetanfou wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Att the start of the pandemic Sweden had the next-lowest number of ICU places per capita in Europe (Portugal had the lowest). The capacity was doubled, field hospitals were built... and not used since the hospitals could handle the inflow. This was partly due to some very controversial and in my opinion unethical guidelines which mandated morphing instead of oxygen for certain groups of elderly (i.e. involuntary euth…

> This was partly due to some very controversial and in my opinion unethical guidelines which mandated morphing instead of oxygen for certain groups of elderly (i.e. involuntary euthanasia) This is an extremely serious accusation. I live in Sweden and have not seen any reference to this practice mentioned in media.

Seriously?

http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/kolumnister/a/dO3ddB/en-pa...

http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/GGk664/de-nast-intill-av...

http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/4q9V1g/kritiken-mot-aldr...

https://www.dagensmedicin.se/artiklar/2020/06/15/palliativ-v...

https://www.expressen.se/debatt/min-pappas-dod-i-covid-19-bl...

https://www.aftonbladet.se/ledare/a/Ln0r9Q/morfin-istallet-f...

https://www.exakt24.se/lakare-upprord-efter-lackt-journalant...

https://www.exakt24.se/lakare-forskrackt-dodshjalp-istallet-...

https://lakartidningen.se/aktuellt/nyheter/2020/05/geriatrik...

https://www.varldenidag.se/nyheter/lakare-kraver-syrgas-till...

https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-lagar/dokument/skriftli...

If you have not heard of this it is because you're following the wrong media, clear and simple. Even Aftonbladet published on this, there was an open letter in Läkartidningen (doctor's journal), Dagens Medicin wrote on it, the 'alternative' media were all over this, questions were asked in Riksdagen.

Why did you not know? Also, why did you not simply search around a bit to verify the statement before posting your reply?

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#109

Post by sdfkkksdfsdff » Thu, Oct 08, 2020, 10:50 PM UTC

AstralStorm wrote: post #103

sdfkkksdfsdff wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Influenza is also new every year. There have been other Coronaviruses before.

Not exactly new. Partial immunity to many strains of flu is common and widespread. Not so much to SARS family coronaviruses. (Which are very different from other coronaviruses, much more than flu strains between each other.)

Nevertheless, isn't the latest finding that many people already seem to be partially immune - perhaps because there are some similarities to other Corona viruses that the immune system can latch on to?

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#110

Post by onecommentman » Fri, Oct 09, 2020, 2:57 AM UTC

goalieca wrote: post #89

cygx wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no worse than surrounding countries Deaths per 1k population: total last month Sweden 0.59 0.0058 Denmark 0.11 0.0053 Finland 0.063 0.0016 Norway 0.051 0.0020

I’m tired of seeing scoreboard style comparisons everywhere as some sort of gotcha. Any scientific analysis worth its salt will look into the values to start explaining the numbers and put it all into context. For instance, can we explain where Sweden’s deaths occurred? Large care homes (100+ residents) that were ill prepared? Are they expected to have a large amount or average amount of excess deaths at the end of 2…

What makes presenting a list of numbers a “gotcha”? It’s a better starting point for discussion than a random unsupported assertion. I would interpret a complaint about introducing numbers and measurement as evidence that the complainant has a weak position that can’t stand objective scrutiny. Numbers aren’t everything, but they’re definitely a something...