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Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

ons.gov.uk

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Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#81

Post by [deleted] »

sdfkkksdfsdff wrote: post #72
zpeti wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Influenza is contained because there is some form of herd immunity already. Remember COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus, which is why it's spread so much so fast, no one is immune at first. But to suggest that the covid death numbers will be this high year after year after year is unlikely in my opinion, as is shown by the fact that many places with big first waves (north italy, sweden, london) don't have a second wave…

Influenza is also new every year. There have been other Coronaviruses before.

[deleted]

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#82

Post by cygx »

Yetanfou wrote: post #76
polytely wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it probably depends on the amount of IC beds / ventilators / trained personnel available per location. I know that here in The Netherlands they narrowly avoided a triage situation where your condition decided if were going to get treated. A second order effect that might not be obvious is that during the first wave a lot of non-emergency procedures were postponed, a lot of these non-emergency procedures can stil…

Att the start of the pandemic Sweden had the next-lowest number of ICU places per capita in Europe (Portugal had the lowest). The capacity was doubled, field hospitals were built... and not used since the hospitals could handle the inflow. This was partly due to some very controversial and in my opinion unethical guidelines which mandated morphing instead of oxygen for certain groups of elderly (i.e. involuntary euth…

no worse than surrounding countries

Deaths per 1k population:

                total       last month
    Sweden      0.59        0.0058
    Denmark     0.11        0.0053
    Finland     0.063       0.0016
    Norway      0.051       0.0020

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#83

Post by christoph »

dustinmoris wrote: post #15
MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #4

This chart from Sweden says its not worse than influenza: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejd0IpdVcAASTqR?format=jpg&name=... Looking at the source data, the numbers seem roughly right: https://knoema.de/atlas/Schweden/Sterblichkeitsrate I don't know what to think anymore.

Well the UK chart also shows that: - Influenza and Pneumonia are counted as one, because the majority of Pneumonia deaths are due to Influenza - Influenza and Pneumonia deaths have been SUBSTANTIALLY lower ever single month in 2020 than the five year average - Of the deaths where both influenza and pneumonia, and COVID-19 were mentioned on the death certificate, the underlying cause of death was counted as COVID-19 i…

It's also well worth factoring in what Amnesty have just reported about the state of care homes, their residents access to medical care and DNARs in the UK during this period.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/10/uk-older-peop...

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#84

Post by titzer »

chrisco255 wrote: post #63
titzer wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the early days, we believed that Covid was 10-20 times deadlier than the flu, and that's what was used to justify the draconian measures. I'm looking at this [1] data, Table 4, specifically the row for April. Deaths in April Pneumonia+Influenza, 5yr avg: 2,354.8 Pneumonia+Influenza, 2020: 1,933 COVID: 29,128 [1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommun... April was peak, pre-lockdown, full-bl…

Okay, now open Table 5 on that same spreadsheet. And take a look at the numbers for the year 2000. # of deaths Jan-Aug (due to either flu, pneumonia or Covid) 2000: 40,436 2020: 14,013 + 48,168 Yes, this is significant and certainly Covid seems to be able to spread across a vulnerable population much more quickly than the flu but it doesn't seem to be orders of magnitude deadlier on balance. I get why people thought…

When you average over a long timespan that includes unprecedented global steps to limit this thing. Also, essentially nobody was infected with COVID in January, so you are just flat out being disingenuous. You could as well go back to November if you really want to make the numbers look good for your argument.

> I get why people thought it was 10-20x in the beginning

It was 10x in the beginning. It averaged 12x for an entire month. It was 15x for numerous days in a row, and this is despite it infecting far fewer people than the flu. It was why we had a massive global lockdown, mask mandates, social distancing, the whole shitshow, in case you missed that.

At this point I am inclined to disengage because you, specifically, have been all over every single COVID thread with the same misinformation and distortions. Frankly, it's tiring. It doesn't matter what the numbers are anymore. Never did. "Just a flu". smh.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#85

Post by MrBuddyCasino »

dustinmoris wrote: post #15
MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #4

This chart from Sweden says its not worse than influenza: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejd0IpdVcAASTqR?format=jpg&name=... Looking at the source data, the numbers seem roughly right: https://knoema.de/atlas/Schweden/Sterblichkeitsrate I don't know what to think anymore.

Well the UK chart also shows that: - Influenza and Pneumonia are counted as one, because the majority of Pneumonia deaths are due to Influenza - Influenza and Pneumonia deaths have been SUBSTANTIALLY lower ever single month in 2020 than the five year average - Of the deaths where both influenza and pneumonia, and COVID-19 were mentioned on the death certificate, the underlying cause of death was counted as COVID-19 i…

> It seems the people who are dying from COVID-19 are those who have reached an age which is well beyond the average life expectancy of a first world country.

Some data in support of this:

„According to the CDC’s data, the survival rate for COVID-19 is as follows:

0-19: 99.997%

20-49: 99.98%

50-69: 99.5%

70 & over: 94.6%

Life expectancy in the USA per CDC: 78.7 (2018)“ [0]

[0] https://twitter.com/drsimonegold/status/1313948710523424768?...

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#86

Post by rsynnott »

born_a_skeptic wrote: post #3

I'm not a statistician or a scientist, but I don't it does any good to lump everything together over the past ~9 months and compare it to Influenza and Pneumonia. Just think about it. We barely knew anything about covid or how to treat it at the start of the year. Now, it seems like we have a better understanding and how to potentially treat it. Compare this to Influenza/Pneumonia, which I'm just guessing we've been…

> Now, it seems like we have a better understanding and how to potentially treat it.

I think you're being a bit optimistic here. There've been some procedural improvements. We have a few drugs which appear to shorten hospital stay but not reduce death rate. We have dexamethasone, which gives something like a 20% death rate reduction in hospitalized cases, but is not otherwise super-useful.

There've been modest improvements in treatment, but no silver bullet yet.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#87

Post by jsnell »

UrsaMedius wrote: post #59
evgen wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors like Norway, Finland, and Denmark and the cost of Sweden's failed response becomes pretty obvious.

This is an oversimplification. What specifics do you claim puts Sweden closer to the other Nordics than other European contries? For example, Sweden had school breaks around the time of the large outbreaks in northern Italy and Austria, leading to many ski vacations to those areas. Did the other Nordics? To be clear, I don't proclaim this little example to be an explanation for why Sweden had more cases, only to shin…

> For example, Sweden had school breaks around the time of the large outbreaks in northern Italy and Austria, leading to many ski vacations to those areas. Did the other Nordics?

Yes, Norway and Denmark had ski vacations at the same time with a lot of travel to the Alps. All three countries had very similar initial conditions and trajectories for the epidemic until early April. The differences in outcomes were clearly related to policy decisions made in March and April.

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#89

Post by goalieca »

cygx wrote: post #82
Yetanfou wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Att the start of the pandemic Sweden had the next-lowest number of ICU places per capita in Europe (Portugal had the lowest). The capacity was doubled, field hospitals were built... and not used since the hospitals could handle the inflow. This was partly due to some very controversial and in my opinion unethical guidelines which mandated morphing instead of oxygen for certain groups of elderly (i.e. involuntary euth…

no worse than surrounding countries Deaths per 1k population: total last month Sweden 0.59 0.0058 Denmark 0.11 0.0053 Finland 0.063 0.0016 Norway 0.051 0.0020

I’m tired of seeing scoreboard style comparisons everywhere as some sort of gotcha. Any scientific analysis worth its salt will look into the values to start explaining the numbers and put it all into context.

For instance, can we explain where Sweden’s deaths occurred? Large care homes (100+ residents) that were ill prepared? Are they expected to have a large amount or average amount of excess deaths at the end of 2020? Why is it tracking average and why are some lockdown heavy countries tracking much higher (because lack of health care due to shutdowns?) What even represents a covid death or case?

Re: Deaths due to Covid-19 compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia

#90

Post by gerikson »

Yetanfou wrote: post #76
polytely wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it probably depends on the amount of IC beds / ventilators / trained personnel available per location. I know that here in The Netherlands they narrowly avoided a triage situation where your condition decided if were going to get treated. A second order effect that might not be obvious is that during the first wave a lot of non-emergency procedures were postponed, a lot of these non-emergency procedures can stil…

Att the start of the pandemic Sweden had the next-lowest number of ICU places per capita in Europe (Portugal had the lowest). The capacity was doubled, field hospitals were built... and not used since the hospitals could handle the inflow. This was partly due to some very controversial and in my opinion unethical guidelines which mandated morphing instead of oxygen for certain groups of elderly (i.e. involuntary euth…

> This was partly due to some very controversial and in my opinion unethical guidelines which mandated morphing instead of oxygen for certain groups of elderly (i.e. involuntary euthanasia)

This is an extremely serious accusation. I live in Sweden and have not seen any reference to this practice mentioned in media.

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