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Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

wsj.com

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Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#151

This is a great move. The current H1B program made no sense at all. If I wanted to hire: A smart graduate from EPFL, Polytechnique or ETH Zurich who interned at CERN and has contributed to the Linux kernel for a software engineering job at a unicorn startup or A grad from a second tier "technical college" in India with a visa refusal rate of ~90% for a job doing manual UI testing and QA for a body shop my only path f…

The changes described in the article do not change your hypothetical whatsoever.

It does indirectly.

Hiring for the later will hopefully cease to be cost effective. But the former should still be worth it.

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#152
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Canada, a country 1/10th the size of the US, brings in 300,000 new immigrants each year. The US brings in 140,000. This means Canada brings in 20X the number of new immigrants per capita than the US does. The US had 1.8 million new immigrants (legal and otherwise) in 2016 and ~13% of the population is foreign born. Canada exceeds that (~21%) but nothing like the 20X rate you're claiming.

Immigrants are defined in US law as green card holders.

~1.2 million green cards were issued in 2016, with the rest of the 1.8 million immigrants being undocumented. I'm not sure what data you're looking at?

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#153
post #5

I can't believe I'm actually agreeing with something this administration is doing...

There's polarizing issues, but actually a lot of issues I find myself agreeing with lately. Anti-war sentiment is a big one (I love hearing about troop draw downs in Iraq and Afghanistan and Syria).

And Trump accuses the IC community of unconstitutional spying on politicians and Americans, the same thing technorati have been saying (at least until 2016, when it became cool to trust the FBI and CIA).

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#154

It's pretty amazing to me how anti-immigrant America is, for a country built on immigration, but I suppose it's always been that way. Benjamin Franklin hated the Germans in the 1750s [1]. For perspective, Canada, a country 1/10th the size of the US, brings in 30,000 refugees each year. The US brings in 18,000. This means Canada brings in 25X the number of refugees per capita than the US does. Canada, a country 1/10th…

> This means Canada brings in 25X the number of refugees per capita than the US does. > This means Canada brings in 20X the number of new immigrants per capita than the US does. You assert this as though it's just automatically a good thing with no actual analysis as to the impact on Canadians. What happens to the cultural cohesion, wages, and living standards of Canadians when immigration is at such a rapid pace? Is…

The rate has been consistent since at least 1992.

The wealth and income inequality in Canada is much lower than in the US.

The standard of living in Canada is just as high as the US. Canada's Human Development Index is .922, 13th globally. The US HDI is .920, so a hair lower. 45% of the Canadian population lives in 6 of the 35 most livable cities in the world.

"Social cohesion" doesn't come up, it's not an issue.

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is right. The answer that's best for the economy is to allow more immigration, not less (especially skilled immigration). This move will just make it more dificult for the average company to sponsor H1B workers

Serious question: wouldn’t that be leaving less jobs open for Americans? As an American myself, I want to see my fellow Americans getting good jobs over people from other countries.

I'm not an American, but I fully understand your point.

Let me provide some background. If you already know this, my apologies.

The process of getting an H1B is not the employer picking up the phone and ordering "1 H1B for delivery please".

It involves applying at the beginning of April, being entered into a lottery, and you find out if you "won" (and your application is looked at) around the end of March. IIRC it is ~30% that your application is even looked at.

At this point, you're out legal and processing fees (at least a couple thousand), and likely more if USCIS wants more evidence that the position qualifies, or that the individual being sponsored is eligible. As a side note, this is often why job descriptions have degree requirements and such, even if they will hire people without a degree. If a similar job at the same company doesn't "need" a degree, it will be much more difficult to get a work status for, even if the requirement bar is actually quite high.

After this, assuming you actually get your status, you don't "get" it until the beginning of October.

It's now cost your employer 6 months of lead time, a legal process, thousands of dollars, and uncertainty throughout to know if they even _could_ hire someone.

It is not _easy_ to get an H1B.

If you have 2 equally qualified people, who will make the same amount of money (which is what market rates are, see my initial suggestion above), then any reasonable employer is going to go with the candidate that they can hire the next week, rather than going through the H1B process.

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#156
I really, really want to like this move.

I've written on HN before that the Trump admin's revealed immigration preference is, in effect, "as few immigrants as possible" [1]. Every past move this administration has made with regard to visas has been ill-advised and badly executed (imo). That they solved problem 1 (ill-advised) does not mean they've solved problem 2 (badly executed).

In that light, I can't help but think this is just another RFE hole: "you studied math and cs, and now want to work as a data scientist? That's not closely enough related" or "quantitative economics is not STEM, even though 12/15 required courses were math, stats, and CS, and we previously approved the program" (both objections I've heard raised in the past year, _before_ this new emphasis on degree-job relatedness).

This isn't a bad policy - it may be good, even! - but I hope it gets implemented by the next administration.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23760337

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#157
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I take it you've never tried to hire experienced software engineers. The supply is significantly below demand.

At what cost? $50/hr?

I am on H1B (bay area last 4 years, Atlanta 6 years) and my total compensation is significantly higher than that.

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#158
post #74

I agree 100% with you. My view is even more extreme, I think we should allow anyone who passes a criminal background check to be able to get a work visa, with no quotas. But barring that pipe dream, this seems like a good interim step.

Wouldn’t that cause a large displacement of the existing labor force and significantly drive down wages?

The only real change you would need is to eliminate birthright citizenship to avoid birth tourism. The rest is a CoL problem which is mostly a blue state problem because they like pretty policies over effective policies. Housing's cheap to build, oil is cheap, and farming is easy if you don't hate industry. The only thing that would need help to prevent scarcity initially is probably internet availability. After that just use some of the increased tax revenue to provide support for struggling citizens.

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#159
post #99

It's pretty amazing to me how anti-immigrant America is, for a country built on immigration, but I suppose it's always been that way. Benjamin Franklin hated the Germans in the 1750s [1]. For perspective, Canada, a country 1/10th the size of the US, brings in 30,000 refugees each year. The US brings in 18,000. This means Canada brings in 25X the number of refugees per capita than the US does. Canada, a country 1/10th…

[flagged]

Super woke! Wait til you hear about the history of literally every country on Earth.

Re: Trump administration announces overhaul of H1B visa program requiring higher pay

#160
post #9

Credit where credit is due, this is a good move. The H1B program has been abused for a long time. It sounds like these changes should help make it too expensive for the fraudulent abuse to continue.

Genuine question, what type of fraudulent abuse are you referring to? I see this vaguely mentioned a lot without much to back it up, but I'm open to the idea that it happens. From my own anecdotal experience, I'll admit I have found the rules to be a little ridiculous. Company needs to post a sign in the office advertising the role to any Americans, wait a certain amount of time, and only then can offer it to an H1-B…

The abuse I've seen most often is that companies hire H1B workers and then contract them out to other companies, and the H1B worker can't change employers, and gets to watch most of what their time is billed for go to the original contracting company which often misleads the people about what they'll find when they arrive.

The worker ends up with very few choices, and the companies at which the workers are working are likely overpaying for what they're getting. The only one truly happy is the "placement" company that holds the workers' contracts.

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