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Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

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Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#71
post #18

No one can read this article yet it is instantly upvoted to the very top of HN. Goes to show how discussion forums like this one just serve to amplify people's existing biases rather than actually educate them on anything new.

I'm pretty sure it has more to do with the HN algo where some keywords rank higher than others. "Uber" "Billion" "Self-Driving" are hot topics by themselves and this one is all of them in one.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#72
post #12

The Information sometimes unlocks articles for HN readers, but for those that don't have access the biggest takeaway to me is that Uber has made relatively little progress towards fully autonomous cars despite a huge amount of investment. The most shocking detail: > Uber’s vehicles had also been having what the company refers to as a bad experience—such as a sudden jerk or a potentially dangerous movement—every one-t…

The relative safety and performance of autonomous anything is very, very hard to measure - there are so many variables.

Even on identical systems, different parameters will create totally different outcomes.

Maybe it has 'sudden movements' because it's actually a lot after and designed to react to things that Waymo would just plow right through. Maybe they're using crappy non-production sensors. Maybe they are entirely relying on instruments and not indirect data like GPS. I have no idea really, other than to say, these are very sophisticated systems and given the obvious opacity of the work ... it's going to be hard to tell what's what.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#73
post #30

Clearly, we should aim for a less ambitious goal: ultra-compact self driving vehicles on dedicated and physically separated lanes, where cars cannot be encountered unless it's their fault, similar to bike and tram lines. This could increase city trafic capacity by an order of magnitude in congested central zones and suplement public transport in suburban, dispersed areas that cannot be properly served by buses. And i…

> dedicated and physically separated lanes We already have trams.

They can route people from fixed point A to point B, and some locations along a predetermined rute from A to B. Personal rapid transit allows a Many to Many mapping, just like cars.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#75

What I've never understood is how you're going to get a car to understand a construction worker or cop doing hand signals without artificial general intelligence. Why even bother with the car until you've figured that out in the lab?

Hand signals and gestures have been used with kinect systems for awhile now.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#76

I wrote this back in 2016 and I think it still holds today: https://battlepenguin.com/tech/self-driving-cars-will-not-so... Self driving cars are dumping an insane amount of time and effort into computer vision and AI for the wrong problem. For the amount of tax subsidies, our money, given to these companies, we could have put down insane amounts of rail. Hell, we could even do small personal autonomous rail car test…

Not really. Rail in the US is spectacularly expensive; look up a few recent rail projects with dollar figures attached, they're billions of dollars each. That's the same order of magnitude as the cost of an entire self-driving research program (Waymo has taken $3B of investment, according to its Wikipedia page), which, if successful, would scale quickly and easily to the entire world.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#78
post #51
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a weird take. How come Tesla gets to be a technology company but Uber is a services company?

One company builds a ride hailing app while the other builds one of the premier, high-performance EVs in the world with significant levels of driver assistance, over the air updates, and world-class onboard perception that industry incumbents readily admit is "years" ahead of their own development. How exactly would you characterize the comparison?

Uber is more of a tech company in that their entire value is based on internet connectivity (while Tesla could take a 99% market cap hit and still put together metal on an assembly line), but Uber is less impressive since it's just an app and an API connecting drivers to people and sometimes throwing a restaurant in the mix.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#79
post #59
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how setting up an entire new parallel road network all over the world is "less ambitious". Some of the best funded cities in this country aren't even able to lay a few miles of fiber for broadband internet.

Well, it would be the same network, with some road space dedicated to cars being repurposed for public transit. Cities do this all the time for buses.

Cities usually go as far as having dedicated lanes for buses on a few main thoroughfares. That is a far cry from having a self driving car not encounter any human driver during the drive from my home to my office or the grocery store, for example.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#80
post #56

I wrote this back in 2016 and I think it still holds today: https://battlepenguin.com/tech/self-driving-cars-will-not-so... Self driving cars are dumping an insane amount of time and effort into computer vision and AI for the wrong problem. For the amount of tax subsidies, our money, given to these companies, we could have put down insane amounts of rail. Hell, we could even do small personal autonomous rail car test…

I love rail but we'll probably see some kind of self driving before we get high speed rail between any of SD, SF, LA, or Vegas.

I agree but only because of bureaucracy and nimby-ism.
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