Are we living at the 'hinge of history'? • Hacker News Board

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#231

Post by qes » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:06 PM UTC

qubex wrote: post #112

simonh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

> Nobody 100 years ago had the slightest clue that the industrialization at the time could cause global warming, for example. This is incorrect. The first measurements and effects were calculated at the end of the 19th Century (quoted as 1896). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_scie...

Awareness of anthropogenic climate change goes back quite a bit further than 1896.

https://daily.jstor.org/how-19th-century-scientists-predicte...

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#232

Post by renewiltord » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:09 PM UTC

ookookookook wrote: post #220

renewiltord wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You will never do this easily. If I run a developing nation there is absolutely no way I accept that you, a developed nation with a century of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, will merely accept a reduction of your annual emissions. I will pump as much CO2 as necessary to raise my population into prosperity and until you have taken out enough GHG to match my historic emissions you're going to have to either take me w…

Guns and bombs it is, then.

You can say this but no nation as a whole has the balls. That's the power of fighting off an invasion from a rich country. I can lose ten for each one of yours and you will lose hope first.

To say nothing of the fact that the first American soldier who dies to stop climate change will cause, by his death, the crucifixion of your "liberal tree huggers". Your internal politics will fracture and break you. You are too weak for this.

And if you're European, your populace doesn't have the appetite to use guns and bombs to stop climate change anyway.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#233

Post by mhh__ » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:12 PM UTC

ogre_magi wrote: post #152

127 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

This is such a small take. Climate change can absolutely be reversed by sufficiently determined technological and industrial civilization. The reason most climate activists don’t acknowledge that is because they don’t want it to be true. They prefer being noble doomsayers before the “ignorant sheep.” There are (expensive) geoengineering projects that would give humans direct control over global temperature.

[Citation needed]

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#234

Post by dgellow » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:14 PM UTC

Aperocky wrote: post #177

dgellow wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t we already have close to infinite energy with nuclear fission? With almost zero impact on the atmosphere’s CO2.

We don't have infinite Uranium.

Right, but I never heard of a risk of shortage. Though I may be out of the loop. Is it expected to be an issue in the future?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#235

Post by Zigurd » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:15 PM UTC

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

You can look at the present day as a loud echo of the end of the Cold War. Today's "hinge" is in large measure the culmination of Putin's revanchist asymmetrical war on the West. If he fails to get his man in America, and if Europe contains the nationalism in Hungary and Poland and passes a "European Magnitsky Act" in response to the poisoning of Navalny, we will see the end of the Putin era, and eventually see Russia join Europe.

Or will see the power center of the West shift to Europe, and a more powerful, and expansionist Russia threaten peace in Europe.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#236

Post by read_if_gay_ » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:16 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #176

asymmetric wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure everyone considers space the top luxury. Just look at most Asian/European metropolises: people are happy to sacrifice space for other luxuries.

Wouldn't read that much from it. They're likely sacrificing space because they have little other choice (Japan, HK?), or because cities are where the good jobs are.

I think it's like money, more makes you linearly happier but only up to a certain point, after which the curve flattens.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#237

Post by BurningFrog » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:17 PM UTC

porb121 wrote: post #167

BurningFrog wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of all the things you need to be careful about on the net, predictions of climate doom are definitely one! Know that doom predictions, being very emotionally appealing, travel around the world before science can get its shoes on.

> Know that doom predictions, being very emotionally appealing, travel around the world before science can get its shoes on. Read the first few paragraphs of any paper in climate or environmental science; their outlook is usually much bleaker than anything you find in the general public.

In the general public I routinely see claims that we have until 2030 to save the planet!

Are there really science papers claiming worse?

Meanwhile the IPCC worst-case scenario is that world GDP in 2100 will be 8.2% lower with a +3.7°C temperature increase, compared to the aspirational +1.5°C increase.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#238

Post by renewiltord » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:18 PM UTC

Joeri wrote: post #128

renewiltord wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You will never do this easily. If I run a developing nation there is absolutely no way I accept that you, a developed nation with a century of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, will merely accept a reduction of your annual emissions. I will pump as much CO2 as necessary to raise my population into prosperity and until you have taken out enough GHG to match my historic emissions you're going to have to either take me w…

The thing is that brazil is mostly cutting forests down for slash and burn farming. If they modernized farming practices, the rate of deforestation would drop significantly. The solution there as with most of these questions of climate fairness is for first world countries to invest in technological development of poorer regions. If brazil’s farmers could practice farming in the same way as european farmers, they wou…

I'm all for that: the approach of paying them not to do it, either with tech or money (pure dollars or carbon-taxing imports and your local production or anything like that).

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#239

Post by vagab0nd » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:18 PM UTC

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

On the same day, there was also a rocket launch explosion: https://whataday.info/e/2958951

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#240

Post by renewiltord » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 4:19 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #111

renewiltord wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You will never do this easily. If I run a developing nation there is absolutely no way I accept that you, a developed nation with a century of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, will merely accept a reduction of your annual emissions. I will pump as much CO2 as necessary to raise my population into prosperity and until you have taken out enough GHG to match my historic emissions you're going to have to either take me w…

It's absolutely true, but put this way, it lends an argument towards force-subjugating the entire planet under one government just to end the bickering about fairness. Global warming isn't fair. What I'd honestly want to see happening instead is developed nations doubling down on greentech, and donating all of that (+ expertise and IP) to developing nations, so that the latter can leapfrog the CO₂-intensive energy ge…

There are ways to do it. Sometimes you just need the tech to exist and you just need to drive down the price. Subsidies to build solar have done a great job in that respect.

It's just not enough until it becomes crazy cheap, though. You have to be way better than fossil fuels to match up because of their advantages.

And no one has the power for global subjugation. No single group of currently allied nations has that power. So that's a safe thing. It simply can't happen. I doubt America could even subjugate Mexico, which is next door.