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Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#121

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

Maybe we should call it Petrov Day?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#123
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The millenary histories of the Egyptian and Chinese empires disagree. Yes, dynasties came and went, but those polities endured for thousands of years—indeed one could argue that the ongoing governance of China by the Communist Party is just the latest dynastic swing.

I'll have to read up on Egypt and pre-XX-century China. How oppressive were these dynasties typically? What did the life look like for a regular subject?

The Vatican has almost a couple of millennia of continuance, but I'm not sure I'd want to say continual stability per se.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#124

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

I'm not sure why the focus has been put onto greenhouse emissions and CO2 in general. If there's any direct threat to the planet, it's insane amount of industrial waste entering the environment daily that gets downplayed in this ridiculous song and dance about CO2. https://publicintegrity.org/environment/industrial-waste-pol... https://www.buschsystems.com/resource-center/page/why-indust... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.g…

Would it not be best to make your (good) point about industrial waste without referring to the conversation about CO2 as a ridiculous song and dance? It's not as if gigantic problems can be expected to line up in a neat and orderly queue for us to deal with one by one.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#125
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

We can talk about scrubbing Carbon from the atmosphere once we have hydrogen fusion (read: infinite energy). Before that, it's just not feasible or possible in a human society.

Would you like to share your numbers that made you reach that conclusion?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#126

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#127
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure why the focus has been put onto greenhouse emissions and CO2 in general. If there's any direct threat to the planet, it's insane amount of industrial waste entering the environment daily that gets downplayed in this ridiculous song and dance about CO2. https://publicintegrity.org/environment/industrial-waste-pol... https://www.buschsystems.com/resource-center/page/why-indust... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.g…

Would it not be best to make your (good) point about industrial waste without referring to the conversation about CO2 as a ridiculous song and dance? It's not as if gigantic problems can be expected to line up in a neat and orderly queue for us to deal with one by one.

Totally agreed. Plus it's not like these are even really separate problems. These petrochemicals exist entirely because they're effectively by-products of fossil fuel refinement, the use of which is the major contributing factor to CO2 emissions.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#128
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keeping global warming below 2°C is a pipe dream I think/hope it's possible by a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal. We not only have to stop all emissions to zero, but should probably start removing co2 from the atmosphere as well: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/carbon-dioxide-remov... https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/wanna-limit-global-w... But th…

You will never do this easily. If I run a developing nation there is absolutely no way I accept that you, a developed nation with a century of pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, will merely accept a reduction of your annual emissions. I will pump as much CO2 as necessary to raise my population into prosperity and until you have taken out enough GHG to match my historic emissions you're going to have to either take me w…

The thing is that brazil is mostly cutting forests down for slash and burn farming. If they modernized farming practices, the rate of deforestation would drop significantly. The solution there as with most of these questions of climate fairness is for first world countries to invest in technological development of poorer regions. If brazil’s farmers could practice farming in the same way as european farmers, they wouldn’t need to cut forests down.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#129

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

I'm not sure why the focus has been put onto greenhouse emissions and CO2 in general. If there's any direct threat to the planet, it's insane amount of industrial waste entering the environment daily that gets downplayed in this ridiculous song and dance about CO2. https://publicintegrity.org/environment/industrial-waste-pol... https://www.buschsystems.com/resource-center/page/why-indust... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.g…

I think the reason people are concerned about CO2 and greenhouse gasses is that we know they will end up hurting us, while industrial waste is not something to be concerned about at the moment beyond local effects. The fact that this is 'damage we don't even understand yet' points to this simple fact that this is not a significant problem and can safely be ignored while we work on the problem that we know will have serious long-term consequences.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#130
post #126

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

It's unlikely that humans will die out even assuming worst case scenarios. So I guess it depends on your definition of "history" whether climate can cause it or not.
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