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Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#221

Post by multiplegeorges »

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #161
tsimionescu wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't spread false information like this. With any model you choose, we are way over the line where we could mitigate long term changes. The science is absolutely certain on this one: the only way to prevent disastrous climate changes, including massive rises in sea levels, extreme temperatures and drought in many highly populated areas of the world etc. is to stop emitting CO2 TODAY, literally. Or, well, to b…

> stop emitting CO2 TODAY, literally. Given that there's no chance at all of this happening, what's Plan B?

Plan B is active removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, converting it to CaCO3 and sinking it into the ocean.

It will require the deployment of direct air capture tech at a total-war level of industrial mobilization.

An adequately priced carbon tax could make it profitable?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#222

Post by darkerside »

simonh wrote: post #84
aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

It reminds me of getting on a stand-up paddle board. As you find your balance, there is a wobbling. If you haven't done it in a while, it feels almost certain you will fall. But (usually for me), you find your balance, and suddenly you are floating in the water, like Jesus Christ himself.

With all the new elements in society, I think we're all "finding our balance". And once we have, we'll be able to explore the future much more safely and effectively.

I guess that's the "hinge-y" argument. The negative argument might be that we're a house of cards, destined for greater instability not less, and we're experiencing what it is to fall apart.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#223

Post by ookookookook »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #157
TeMPOraL wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a fair point I haven't considered. But I was under impression that the developing world has plenty of space?

Space means more miles driven, more ground paved with cement/concrete/asphalt, more distance water/electricity/gas/sewage/trash has to be pushed. The amount of (developed) land a person uses is a rough proxy for quality of life in the developed world, and it is afforded by ignoring the long term externalities of fossil fuels. Obviously everyone wants a detached single family house with a garage and a couple cars and…

Fewer persons with high luxury sounds a lot better than more persons with low QOL.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#224

Post by disown »

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

It's amazing how well propaganda works. The idea that he prevented an atomic war is absurd. Firstly, he was a lieutenant colonel. Had no power to start anything let alone nuclear war. Secondly, even if he had accepted the false alarms, people up the chain of command would have figured out it was a false alarm. In what scenario would the US only launch 5 nukes? The story is obvious nonsense or propaganda and yet it gets posted over and over on social media. Why?

> Petrov's decision.

Petrov's decision is one of the most overhyped propaganda on social media. It's a non-story turned into a story for some reason.

If people just took the time to think about the content rather than mindlessly consuming content maybe we'd get less nonsense.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#225

Post by I-M-S »

127 wrote: post #199
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to understand this perspective. The predictions I've seen, even for a worse case scenario, would result in huge levels of sea rise inundating coastal areas, large parts of the Earth becoming uninhabitable for humans, massive ocean die offs, climate-change induced wars, etc. This would quite obviously result in death and misery for billions (again, this is the worst case scenario), but I haven't seen any evid…

The current thought patterns that seem to be the dominant ones for the majority of ordinary people seem to assume that there are no feedback loops or tipping points. While the evidence from other planets directly contradicts this. Also with end of history, I didn't mean the end of the human race. Just the end of the current civilization and possibly written history. Another dark age, so to speak.

Is it scientifically possible that present conditions on Venus were caused by a civilization that triggered a runaway greenhouse effect artificially?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#226

Post by lucb1e »

ogre_magi wrote: post #152
127 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

This is such a small take. Climate change can absolutely be reversed by sufficiently determined technological and industrial civilization. The reason most climate activists don’t acknowledge that is because they don’t want it to be true. They prefer being noble doomsayers before the “ignorant sheep.” There are (expensive) geoengineering projects that would give humans direct control over global temperature.

> they don’t want it to be true. They prefer being noble doomsayers before the “ignorant sheep.”

This is obviously false. Please take this nonense elsewhere.

I agree with the rest of your comment more than with the person you replied to, like, of course we can have a major effect on the climate if we see the need to (if we indeed see 8°C warming and traditional food supplies failing, suddenly the powers of this world will see ways to do something about it that they aren't doing today) and it doesn't automatically mean an imminent end to history like GP claimed. I just don't get why you had to add the cited part. We're all on the same team.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#227

Post by refurb »

mxcrossb wrote: post #96
dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

It’s going to be funny when 50 years from now I see my grand kid’s history textbook, and Brexit, Trump, and the Coronavirus are all together in one paragraph describing people’s anxiety about globalism in the post Cold War world

That’s the interesting thing. It probably won’t even be a paragraph. Or even a sentence.

Look at the Spanish flu, it gets a cursory mention in this history of the early 20th century. WW1 and the Great Depression dominate that narrative.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#228

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lrem wrote: post #89
simonh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

I'm afraid democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army. Polish lasted 350 years and the parliament voted to allow neighbouring empires to divide the country. The US is at 250 years and people are seriously worried about it devolving into either Gilead or Cyberpunk any moment now.

> democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army.

The Roman Republic learned from Athens’ democracy. Even late Republicans like Sulla and Cicero and Caesar recognised the Republic’s overuse of checks and balances, as well as its lack of a state army. Caesar almost uniquely recognised Rome’s broken voting system. Unfortunately, they were too late.

America’s founders were not. The lessons of the Republic gave us our strong executive and state-funded armed forces. Our Constitutional amendment process is sclerotic, but there is nothing to suggest our Republic is inherently flawed in the way Athens or Rome were.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#229

Post by lucb1e »

BurningFrog wrote: post #213
tsimionescu wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In principle you are right, but this is one case where you have it backwards. The reality that science shows is far worse than what has permeated mainstream culture, on the web or otherwise. The size of the climate disaster, and the urgent need for radical changes in the global economy, simply can't be overstated right now. Unfortunately, the amount of status quo propaganda, especially in the US, is also staggering.…

> The reality that science shows... Just saying that means nothing without a reference to this alleged science. Nothing!

I see where you're coming from but one doesn't need references to say that water is wet. This is a similar case. "Science" (people like you and me that looked into the matter, did experiments, asked critical questions, and presented their work) finding that we are causing the climate to change into something that is less favorable to humans than our current climate is abundantly clear to anyone who will either read the evidence or verify the experiments (e.g. buy an accurate CO2 meter or whatever other part it is that you doubt).

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#230

Post by charliemil4 »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #185
127 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

I'd like to understand this perspective. The predictions I've seen, even for a worse case scenario, would result in huge levels of sea rise inundating coastal areas, large parts of the Earth becoming uninhabitable for humans, massive ocean die offs, climate-change induced wars, etc. This would quite obviously result in death and misery for billions (again, this is the worst case scenario), but I haven't seen any evid…

Just to ‘second’ your perspective - humanity has an uncanny ability to adapt. Climate Change will be a monstrous stimulus to adapt to, but I don’t see where it ‘ends our kind.’

On the whole, the same folks who fear climate change the most, praise the mission to make life multi-planetary. Those two beliefs held concurrently are a head scratcher to me... if you believe in our ability to make life multi-planetary, then surely we can adapt here. Mars is much more unforgiving than any forest fire, hurricane, or massive earth bound event.

Venice and New Orleans might be a write-off, and NYC will have sea walls, but folks must have some drive to adapt beyond just bland acceptance.

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