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Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#151

Post by simonh »

qubex wrote: post #112
simonh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

> Nobody 100 years ago had the slightest clue that the industrialization at the time could cause global warming, for example. This is incorrect. The first measurements and effects were calculated at the end of the 19th Century (quoted as 1896). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_scie...

Interesting, thanks I had no idea. It doesn’t change my basic premise that the decisions made to do thing such as industrialise weren’t really informed ones when it comes to the long term consequences.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#152

Post by ogre_magi »

127 wrote: post #126
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

This is such a small take.

Climate change can absolutely be reversed by sufficiently determined technological and industrial civilization.

The reason most climate activists don’t acknowledge that is because they don’t want it to be true. They prefer being noble doomsayers before the “ignorant sheep.”

There are (expensive) geoengineering projects that would give humans direct control over global temperature.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#153

Post by m-i-l »

chippy wrote: post #91

For those who would like to delve a bit deeper into the Hinge of History, this is the link from the article and is well worth the read. It was submitted here 2 days ago and got zero points! https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XXLf6FmWujkxna3E6/... Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in. With the perspective of history and wi…

> Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in.

Whenever I ask my youngest child what their favourite toy is, more often than not it is the one they have just played with, or what their favourite book is, and it is the one they have most recently read. I suspect that our view of history is similar. Now is always the most important moment in time, whichever time now is.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#154

Post by ianai »

jlg23 wrote: post #141
pbhjpbhj wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Vatican has almost a couple of millennia of continuance, but I'm not sure I'd want to say continual stability per se .

Yes, for any "couple of" smaller two. And more than once it was not clear whether the Vatican was still relevant at all.

The Vatican is also not the same size and breadth as the US or China.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#155

Post by TeMPOraL »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #145
TeMPOraL wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's absolutely true, but put this way, it lends an argument towards force-subjugating the entire planet under one government just to end the bickering about fairness. Global warming isn't fair. What I'd honestly want to see happening instead is developed nations doubling down on greentech, and donating all of that (+ expertise and IP) to developing nations, so that the latter can leapfrog the CO₂-intensive energy ge…

There is no “greentech” that mitigates the environmental damage of the luxury everyone wants, which is space. And no one with kids is going to voluntarily accept living in cramped apartments while other countries have individual houses on lots. Increased space per person => increased fossil fuel usage => increased emissions. Maybe the greatest “greentech” would be dissuading having kids, either culturally or economic…

That's a fair point I haven't considered. But I was under impression that the developing world has plenty of space?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#157

Post by lotsofpulp »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #155
lotsofpulp wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no “greentech” that mitigates the environmental damage of the luxury everyone wants, which is space. And no one with kids is going to voluntarily accept living in cramped apartments while other countries have individual houses on lots. Increased space per person => increased fossil fuel usage => increased emissions. Maybe the greatest “greentech” would be dissuading having kids, either culturally or economic…

That's a fair point I haven't considered. But I was under impression that the developing world has plenty of space?

Space means more miles driven, more ground paved with cement/concrete/asphalt, more distance water/electricity/gas/sewage/trash has to be pushed.

The amount of (developed) land a person uses is a rough proxy for quality of life in the developed world, and it is afforded by ignoring the long term externalities of fossil fuels.

Obviously everyone wants a detached single family house with a garage and a couple cars and a backyard for their kids and a few flights every year for the family, but if the environment is buckling with such a small portion of the population enjoying these benefits, there is no chance everyone can.

Overall consumption needs to go down, which means lower consumption per person, and/or fewer persons.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#158

Post by TigeriusKirk »

ogre_magi wrote: post #152
127 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

This is such a small take. Climate change can absolutely be reversed by sufficiently determined technological and industrial civilization. The reason most climate activists don’t acknowledge that is because they don’t want it to be true. They prefer being noble doomsayers before the “ignorant sheep.” There are (expensive) geoengineering projects that would give humans direct control over global temperature.

It's also crystal clear geoengineering will ultimately be how the problem is addressed. Everything else is a distraction given the reality of how people and societies work.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#159

Post by 0xBA5ED »

cblconfederate wrote: post #93

I wonder what percentage of people want to see huge historical changes at this point. I certainly feel that the past decades were too stable, then stagnant, and it feels like covid is accelerating the moves considerably. If anything, i want more of it

Be careful what you wish for. Rapid large-scale change is exciting perhaps, but not controllable. It is a recipe for sub-populations to slip through the cracks, increasing human suffering.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#160

Post by asymmetric »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #145
TeMPOraL wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's absolutely true, but put this way, it lends an argument towards force-subjugating the entire planet under one government just to end the bickering about fairness. Global warming isn't fair. What I'd honestly want to see happening instead is developed nations doubling down on greentech, and donating all of that (+ expertise and IP) to developing nations, so that the latter can leapfrog the CO₂-intensive energy ge…

There is no “greentech” that mitigates the environmental damage of the luxury everyone wants, which is space. And no one with kids is going to voluntarily accept living in cramped apartments while other countries have individual houses on lots. Increased space per person => increased fossil fuel usage => increased emissions. Maybe the greatest “greentech” would be dissuading having kids, either culturally or economic…

I’m not sure everyone considers space the top luxury. Just look at most Asian/European metropolises: people are happy to sacrifice space for other luxuries.
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