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Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#171

Post by lotsofpulp »

bserge wrote: post #139
libraryofbabel wrote: post #16

Probably only true if we allow the “hinge” to be a process that spans several centuries, perhaps starting around 1800 with the beginnings of industrialization and gathering pace in the 20th century. If we look at the 21st century so far, it just hasn’t been... that interesting! Indeed some scholars of technological change (to take just one metric) actually think the pace of change has slowed. The 20th century gave us…

- Unprecedented access to information; - Instant high fidelity communication and work/business; - Private and ever-cheaper space flight; - True automation (it's only the beginning of the 21st, I bet on automation hitting hard mid century); - AR/VR (which will likely become the escape of choice for much of the world later this century); - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be…

> - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient);

I agree with your comment except this one. I don’t see anything that has come close to the benefits of fossil fuels, and I don’t see the political will to tax fossil fuels sufficiently to curb consumption sufficiently to curb climate change. Any reduction of fossil fuel use in developed countries with the luxury of being able to spend more on less polluting sources of energy will be made up in increased consumption in developing countries.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#172

Post by sbmthakur »

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

Claims of Petrov preventing an "atomic war" are debatable. There were probably other checks built into the Soviet protocol and chain of command that would have easily detected the false positive.

https://www.quora.com/How-close-did-we-come-to-a-nuclear-war...

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#173

Post by revax »

Udik wrote: post #144
tsimionescu wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In principle you are right, but this is one case where you have it backwards. The reality that science shows is far worse than what has permeated mainstream culture, on the web or otherwise. The size of the climate disaster, and the urgent need for radical changes in the global economy, simply can't be overstated right now. Unfortunately, the amount of status quo propaganda, especially in the US, is also staggering.…

> The reality that science shows is far worse than what has permeated mainstream culture I'm really curious where did you get this information from. I suppose it must not be popular or mainstream media, because of course msm telling you that science shows a worse reality than msm is a contradiction. So does which primary literature does it come from?

Mainly from the IPCC reports.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#174

Post by ben_w »

ianai wrote: post #154
jlg23 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, for any "couple of" smaller two. And more than once it was not clear whether the Vatican was still relevant at all.

The Vatican is also not the same size and breadth as the US or China.

The Vatican as a country, I would agree. The Vatican as the Catholic Church, does seem to be on-par with those, at least in terms of head count.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#176

Post by TeMPOraL »

asymmetric wrote: post #160
lotsofpulp wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no “greentech” that mitigates the environmental damage of the luxury everyone wants, which is space. And no one with kids is going to voluntarily accept living in cramped apartments while other countries have individual houses on lots. Increased space per person => increased fossil fuel usage => increased emissions. Maybe the greatest “greentech” would be dissuading having kids, either culturally or economic…

I’m not sure everyone considers space the top luxury. Just look at most Asian/European metropolises: people are happy to sacrifice space for other luxuries.

Wouldn't read that much from it. They're likely sacrificing space because they have little other choice (Japan, HK?), or because cities are where the good jobs are.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#177

Post by Aperocky »

dgellow wrote: post #40
Aperocky wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can talk about scrubbing Carbon from the atmosphere once we have hydrogen fusion (read: infinite energy). Before that, it's just not feasible or possible in a human society.

Don’t we already have close to infinite energy with nuclear fission? With almost zero impact on the atmosphere’s CO2.

We don't have infinite Uranium.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#178

Post by [deleted] »

adrianN wrote: post #131
Aperocky wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can talk about scrubbing Carbon from the atmosphere once we have hydrogen fusion (read: infinite energy). Before that, it's just not feasible or possible in a human society.

There is a huge fusion reactor in the sky that we can use. It provides energy much cheaper than any fusion plants we can hope to build in the next fifty years.

[deleted]

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#179

Post by Aperocky »

adrianN wrote: post #131
Aperocky wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can talk about scrubbing Carbon from the atmosphere once we have hydrogen fusion (read: infinite energy). Before that, it's just not feasible or possible in a human society.

There is a huge fusion reactor in the sky that we can use. It provides energy much cheaper than any fusion plants we can hope to build in the next fifty years.

Space mirror is also a solution.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#180

Post by KineticLensman »

lrem wrote: post #89
simonh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

I'm afraid democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army. Polish lasted 350 years and the parliament voted to allow neighbouring empires to divide the country. The US is at 250 years and people are seriously worried about it devolving into either Gilead or Cyberpunk any moment now.

> Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army

Byzantium (and the rest of the Eastern Roman Empire) disagrees [0]. They lasted until 1453 - incidentally only 50 years before Columbus sailed.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantine_Empire

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