Are we living at the 'hinge of history'? • Hacker News Board

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#161

Post by TigeriusKirk » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 1:44 PM UTC

tsimionescu wrote: post #109

ekianjo wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. Except that most models are piss-poor at predicting anything and that they only cherry pick the ones that happen to make it with new data. On top of that, climate change is a slow moving disaster, and we are…

Please don't spread false information like this. With any model you choose, we are way over the line where we could mitigate long term changes. The science is absolutely certain on this one: the only way to prevent disastrous climate changes, including massive rises in sea levels, extreme temperatures and drought in many highly populated areas of the world etc. is to stop emitting CO2 TODAY, literally. Or, well, to b…

> stop emitting CO2 TODAY, literally.

Given that there's no chance at all of this happening, what's Plan B?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#162

Post by neuronic » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 1:50 PM UTC

qubex wrote: post #112

simonh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

> Nobody 100 years ago had the slightest clue that the industrialization at the time could cause global warming, for example. This is incorrect. The first measurements and effects were calculated at the end of the 19th Century (quoted as 1896). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_scie...

This, again, proves that as an educated society we need to decisively counter the for-profit lies of influential corporations. There is a fundamental problem that may cost us severely in the not too distant future.

Fossil fuel companies have paid large sums to lie about the effects of their products on climate change, just like tobacco companies have directly killed innumerous people by lying about the negative health impact of cigarettes for decades. Nowadays, the evidence that these companies collaborated on misleading the public is openly accessible but back in the 70s or 80s YOU were the enemy for trying to warn about health dangers. Climate is the same now, propaganda has done its work for a long time.

And again, the same cancerous people jump on the bandwagon of an increasingly aware public and try to profit off the new movement by ways of green-washing and other pseudo-helpful bullshit.

These are significant problems where short-term profit motivation is more influential than long-term sustainability and "positive" development of society. Our only hope is the few people in human society who are motivated enough to study, learn, read and act for the greater good.

That's kind of hingey if you ask me.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#163

Post by Fricken » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:02 PM UTC

ogre_magi wrote: post #152

127 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change that can't be reversed, is not a hinge of history, it's the end of history.

This is such a small take. Climate change can absolutely be reversed by sufficiently determined technological and industrial civilization. The reason most climate activists don’t acknowledge that is because they don’t want it to be true. They prefer being noble doomsayers before the “ignorant sheep.” There are (expensive) geoengineering projects that would give humans direct control over global temperature.

Maybe climate change could be by a sufficiently determined technological and industrial civilization, if there was some such thing. Climate change could also be solved by a magical flying rabbit, if there was some such thing.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#164

Post by lotsofpulp » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:02 PM UTC

marcusverus wrote: post #146

gertlex wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My covid takeaway is to be more certain than before that: > [a war-mobilization type of effort, where industries start working together for the goal] is a pipe dream. I'd love to be convinced otherwise. While technically possible, I'm wary of the social/economic/political aspects not being surmountable. (Edit: Your comment was edited while I pondered mine, and now includes mention of the social, etc. aspect :) )

What we need are bite-sized reforms that are palatable to people across the country. You're not going to sell middle America on a comprehensive multi-trillion dollar environmental package any time soon, but you could sell them a handful of "separate" $500B 'Manhattan Projects' to tackle some things now while you bring them around on the rest.

The only reform that would make any difference is one that would cause lower consumption of fossil fuels, i.e. a large tax on fossil fuels. It would especially negatively impact “middle America”, as it would cause prices for everything to rise, and hence they would be forced to consume less (which is the goal), and hence it wouldn’t be palatable.

Anything short of forcing people to consume less now is pie in the sky thinking.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#165

Post by kokey » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:07 PM UTC

OrderlyTiamat wrote: post #73

Regardless of what you think about the concept of hinginess, I'm thoroughly unconvinced by the arguments presented against it in this article. The first one for example, seems like an adapted doomsday argument: given that we continue to exist for x years at a certain societal level, and given the certainty of a hinge, our prior for the hinge being this century would be very low. But this is begging the question. The…

That's also what stood out to me. It's almost like the article was painting the hypothesis as something a lot of people who 'feel' the same way (as the author) is trying to prove it to be true without going into why do they feel that way and how much bias is in that.

Sure, technology is developing fast, but its been quite fast since just before the start of the industrial revolution or when humans started walking or farming etc. I would speculate during those times of rapid development of some of the historical civilisations there was probably just as much of a feeling of it being at a hinge as now.

It's just that right now we like to attract people's attention and creating suspense and that sense of hingeyness is good at attracting attention and there's now a lot of money to be made from attracting attention. Not just money, but you can drive political action if you give people this kind of sense of do or die urgency. This could turn the hypothesis into a self fulfilling prophecy. That's why we need better arguments against it.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#166

Post by eru » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:08 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #84

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

> As for examples of pivotal moments, WW2 is a good example. We came very close to the world being completely dominated by Orwell style authoritarian one party states.

I doubt that would have lasted for long. Fortunately enough for humanity, free human are more productive than slaves.

Compare also https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/FascistButIneffi... and https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/DystopiaIsHard

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#167

Post by porb121 » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:10 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #50

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #18

I'm surprised none of the responses here are discussing climate change. Unlike other concerns, higher average global temps are baked in for centuries, even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today (which, obviously, is not happening). I put in a "yes" vote for the hinge of history simple due to the fact that our inability to drastically restructure our economy today will severely negativity affect billions in…

Of all the things you need to be careful about on the net, predictions of climate doom are definitely one! Know that doom predictions, being very emotionally appealing, travel around the world before science can get its shoes on.

> Know that doom predictions, being very emotionally appealing, travel around the world before science can get its shoes on.

Read the first few paragraphs of any paper in climate or environmental science; their outlook is usually much bleaker than anything you find in the general public.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#168

Post by Fricken » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:14 PM UTC

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

The threat of global thermonuclear warfare hasn't diminished. The nukes are still with us.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#169

Post by Retric » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:16 PM UTC

eru wrote: post #166

simonh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

> As for examples of pivotal moments, WW2 is a good example. We came very close to the world being completely dominated by Orwell style authoritarian one party states. I doubt that would have lasted for long. Fortunately enough for humanity, free human are more productive than slaves. Compare also https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/FascistButIneffi... and https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/DystopiaI…

Total subjugation is surprisingly stable, you end up with a poor society but starving peasants don’t revolt nearly as much as you might think. Looking at say English history you find various factions fighting each other, but it’s the upper crust instigating things. Similarly, Tsarist russia became less stable after industrialization and a rising standard of living.

In the end war is expensive because fighters aren’t producing food etc.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#170

Post by dontcarethrow2 » Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:18 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #84

aeternum wrote: post #11

I'd argue the cold war was closer to the 'hinge of history'. In fact on this very day 9/26 in 1983, a not very well known soviet lieutenant colonel prevented what would very likely have been all out atomic war. In the grand scheme of things, everything that happened this year is probably minor in comparison to Petrov's decision. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

These jabs we throw at oppressive regimes only signal that we are not ready to deal with our own oppressive regime. We have been the boot for a while now, rosy shaded boot, with lights on the side and WiFi. Having to read such well thought out statements while throwing shade at others only feeds my pessimism in foreign policy/domestic media control. Good luck dealing with the never ending boogeyman.