THE hinge of history? THE hinge of history was the Roman Empire (which spread a lot of the Greek ideas that the Romans admired). There may be A hinge in the future that we are close to, sure.
Maybe for Europe; China and India were doing just fine
Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#72I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.
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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#73Regardless of what you think about the concept of hinginess, I'm thoroughly unconvinced by the arguments presented against it in this article.
The first one for example, seems like an adapted doomsday argument: given that we continue to exist for x years at a certain societal level, and given the certainty of a hinge, our prior for the hinge being this century would be very low.
But this is begging the question. The entire point of a hinge is that we don't know if we're going to continue to exist at a certain level of development, thus our assumptions required to develop the prior are dependent on our conclusion that this isn't the period of the hinge.
The other arguments boil down to accusations of bias. These are a little more substantial in that we do actually know these biases exist, and we should account for them. But that doesn't mean necessary that we're not living in a hingey period. It's not necessarily an argument against moreso than a stern warning that more research is needed and the conclusion isn't warranted yet.
I'd think there should be stronger arguments against the premise, and some comments in this post have given far better arguments already.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#74Probably only true if we allow the “hinge” to be a process that spans several centuries, perhaps starting around 1800 with the beginnings of industrialization and gathering pace in the 20th century. If we look at the 21st century so far, it just hasn’t been... that interesting! Indeed some scholars of technological change (to take just one metric) actually think the pace of change has slowed. The 20th century gave us…
I find it very concerning that all your (excellent) examples of progress are not just 20th century inventions, but entirely before 1970. I do believe progress has slowed down.
We can debate its cause... I'd go for financial incentives drawing smart people to banking and advertising instead of more socially beneficial pursuits.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#75I think 2015 was the peak of human civilization, and it's been going downhill ever since. It seems like with climate change and loss of biodiversity the next 3 decades will see a steep decline in world wide stability.
Why specifically 2015 and not, say, 2000?
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#76For those who didn't read the article, the conclusion is: "probably not".
This is an example of how an idea is granted false legitimacy by having a catchy alliterative name.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
India is in thrall?
Isn’t it?
India's independent democracy is messy, however it is young and India is a giant nation. A democracy of 1.4 billion people that even partially functions is a remarkable feat. What they're attempting is obviously no small task. Europe for example has several poorly functioning democracies, to go with two dictatorships. Among ~195 nations, there are not more than three dozen well operating democracies among them, along with another two dozen that kinda-sorta function democratically.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#78For those who didn't read the article, the conclusion is: "probably not". This is an example of how an idea is granted false legitimacy by having a catchy alliterative name.
as well as this law:
Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#79I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.
Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…
> rise in nationalism and authoritarianism
And we ("hackers") give them both the open society they can hate against and the tools to potentiate their propaganda for free.
Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nobody serious sees the Coronavirus as an existential threat to humanity unless it mutates in a way that really enables it to wipe out most humans. Climate change and the collapse of global ecosystems can absolutely manage that and according to every serious scientist we are pretty much on the worst case scenario path according to any peer reviewed model. The rise in nationalism and authoritarianism around the world…
> rise in nationalism and authoritarianism And we ("hackers") give them both the open society they can hate against and the tools to potentiate their propaganda for free.
It seemed like a good idea at the time.