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Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

bbc.com

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Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#91

Post by chippy »

For those who would like to delve a bit deeper into the Hinge of History, this is the link from the article and is well worth the read. It was submitted here 2 days ago and got zero points!

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XXLf6FmWujkxna3E6/...

Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in. With the perspective of history and with the imagination for the future you can start to see how what we think is the most urgent things maybe not so, and you can see how small changes elsewhere might be the best thing for the future.

It can inoculate you against being manipulated by urgency-based calls for action.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#92

Post by 082349872349872 »

ralusek wrote: post #9

I didn't read the article, but the answer is emphatically yes. We are rubbing up against the reality that most humans are less and less valuable to other humans such that they are basically valueless, and their market value diminishes accordingly, and that technological advances and market efficiencies are actually eliminating scarcity within certain arenas. We have to grapple with the fact that most humans offer alm…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSYpYFEwr4o&t=15

> "Are people becoming obsolete?" (1946)

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#94

Post by Gravityloss »

lrem wrote: post #89
simonh wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Cold War, and even WW2 are part of the current period when it comes to the ‘hinge of history’ argument. They’re not saying this year is the most influential, or even this decade. I think it comes down to the explosive industrial growth and technological advances over the last few hundred years, and next hundred years or so. It’s a unique confluence of incredible capability with little understanding of the…

I'm afraid democracies are inherently unstable. Athenian lasted 200 years and got swallowed up by Macedonian autocracy. Roman lasted 500 years and got overthrown by the army. Polish lasted 350 years and the parliament voted to allow neighbouring empires to divide the country. The US is at 250 years and people are seriously worried about it devolving into either Gilead or Cyberpunk any moment now.

Most things have finite lifespans. The benchmark for a form of government is certainly not that it should be eternal and continuous.

Look at some cities in Europe. Many have waxed and waned, some even many times. They have been parts of different countries and empires. Many have influenced the world greatly for the better.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#95

Post by QuesnayJr »

michaelbrave wrote: post #39
dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

Covid isn't necessarily the primary concern but one crisis among many. Arguably most civilization collapses happened in times when there were too many crises at once, that individually could be handled but all at once or in close succession become overwhelming. A current example of this would be that with climate change we face increase in temperatures causing wildfires on the west coast, deadly heatwaves in the sout…

How is the middle class nearly gone?

Inequality has increased, and I think this is bad, but I don't get the point of an over-the-top statement like this. Median household income in the US is over $60,000 (source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). How is that gone?

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#96

Post by mxcrossb »

dougmwne wrote: post #7

I think no. We are in a boring, prosperous, stable time with an overactive media. The virus is bad, but it will pass and medical science will save many millions. The plague of Justinian, this is not. Hope I'm not wrong about that, at any rate.

It’s going to be funny when 50 years from now I see my grand kid’s history textbook, and Brexit, Trump, and the Coronavirus are all together in one paragraph describing people’s anxiety about globalism in the post Cold War world

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#97

Post by aebtebeten »

unethical_ban wrote: post #46

I'll read the article in the morning. Apologies for pre-commenting. I do not believe the world hinges on 2020. It is certain more than one nation is going through defining moments, but the world will survive it - as it will the coronavirus. I do believe that the United States is at a tipping point unlike any moment in the past 50 years. Whether anyone likes it or not, we are the world's leading consumer and second le…

Just starting in on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperialism,_the_Highest_Stage... and while much of what VIL[1] says could be written a century later, my initial skim of "VIII. PARASITISM AND DECAY OF CAPITALISM" reveals that he's assumed that an imperial power will also be a creditor.

[1] compare http://www.gutenberg.org/files/48612/48612-h/48612-h.htm#Pag...

> "In the geniuses Lenin and Trotzky, the Bolshevik movement found its leadership. Lenin had no use for democracy as it was known in America. To him it was a sham, a front for the great capitalist trusts, which—even though the capitalists themselves might not know it—were doomed to get bigger on a shrinking market, until international capitalist war, bankruptcy, and working-class revolution was the result. Lenin was as sure that this would happen as he was that the sun would rise the next morning. The only dispute was the matter of timing; a few Bolshevik pessimists thought that the capitalist world might last into the 1920's."

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#98

Post by mercer »

dehrmann wrote: post #60
bjelkeman-again wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or India. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/india-is-in-denia...

I forgot about India. Its lockdown was thought through very poorly and made the spread worse.

To be fair, it's much more difficult to have an effective lockdown a country that has people tightly packed together and that isn't a WEIRD individualistic society.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#99

Post by watwut »

chippy wrote: post #91

For those who would like to delve a bit deeper into the Hinge of History, this is the link from the article and is well worth the read. It was submitted here 2 days ago and got zero points! https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XXLf6FmWujkxna3E6/... Its often a human mistake to think that right now is the most important time ever because it is literally the moment we are in. With the perspective of history and wi…

> It can inoculate you against being manipulated by urgency-based calls for action.

Perspective of history however does not show that being passive is universally what is needed more that if we wait, it gonna be alright. Now that current need is not urgent.

I mean, not being the most important historical moment does not imply it is not important for us and those right after us. Generally we should seek to avoid those super important moments by working on issues before they get so bad.

Re: Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?

#100

Post by bpizzi »

libraryofbabel wrote: post #16

Probably only true if we allow the “hinge” to be a process that spans several centuries, perhaps starting around 1800 with the beginnings of industrialization and gathering pace in the 20th century. If we look at the 21st century so far, it just hasn’t been... that interesting! Indeed some scholars of technological change (to take just one metric) actually think the pace of change has slowed. The 20th century gave us…

> The 21st? The iPhone? Meh.

Only 20 years in (or is it 'already 20y in'?), and there's already reusable rockets, CRISPR, 3D printing and the combo deep learning + astonishingly both powerful and affordable CPU/GPU/TPU.

I would say this is already an interesting century, invention-wise.

Also, one could argue that the 21's internet is not the same as the 20's, in which case modern, cheap and massively deployed internet can be classified as a 21st great invention.

But we're splitting hairs. Centuries are an artificial construct. Measuring pace of change by such a crude method makes no sens to me.

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