Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent • Hacker News Board

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#171

Post by dwaltrip » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:15 AM UTC

just-juan-post wrote: post #160

MiroF wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Study Finds Most Restaurants Fail Within First Year Of It Becoming Illegal To Go To Them Even without these laws, personal decisions would have decimated the business regardless. Even in places didn't shut down, patronage plummeted.

If people are scared and won't go to restaurants and bars then why continue to keep them closed? You are saying that patronage is already down so why even restrict them? Give people and businesses a choice in the matter. This is about letting individuals and businesses make their own decisions without the government forcing them to close.

This isn’t about people making decisions for themselves. It’s about preventing the spread of infectious disease.

You might be fine, but if you are asymptomatic, you can directly harm or kill others and not even know it.

That being said, I’m not sure what the best policy is. It doesn’t seem feasible to have a complete lockdown that extends for many months. So we have to be clever, keep learning, and find good solutions. We can minimize the risks and prioritize health while allowing society to function in an altered fashion.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#172

Post by watwut » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:15 AM UTC

just-juan-post wrote: post #160

MiroF wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Study Finds Most Restaurants Fail Within First Year Of It Becoming Illegal To Go To Them Even without these laws, personal decisions would have decimated the business regardless. Even in places didn't shut down, patronage plummeted.

If people are scared and won't go to restaurants and bars then why continue to keep them closed? You are saying that patronage is already down so why even restrict them? Give people and businesses a choice in the matter. This is about letting individuals and businesses make their own decisions without the government forcing them to close.

> If people are scared and won't go to restaurants

If people are responsible and won't go to restaurants ...

Or long form: If people know there is infectious disease around with asymptomatic transmission and rationally decide not to go to restaurant to ...

Framing does a lot.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#173

Post by hilbertseries » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:15 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #156

dannyw wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps the "something" is simply antibodies and herd immunity? 1. In April (!!), 1 in 5 NYCers tested positive for antibodies: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-anti... 2. Given asymmetric social contact patterns, experts estimate that ~20% may be the threshold for herd immunity of COVID: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-... I support looking at the science, and this…

To add to this, Sweden isn't seeing the big surge that France and Spain are seeing (among others, including Belgium and the Netherlands, both at or near record highs). Sweden's cases have dropped lower and have stayed there. Given their comparatively open approach to the virus, they should be seeing a surge. While it's possible it'll show up in the near future as it again spreads across parts of Europe, I think it's…

The 60 percent figure is people living their lives normally. Currently most people are social distancing, wearing masks and large gatherings have been cancelled. Under these circumstances 20 percent may well be herd immunity. But if Madison square garden was open and the subway was packed with people not wearing masks, its not clear that 20 percent would be enough.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#174

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:16 AM UTC

tedivm wrote: post #151

clairity wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nyc and other municipalities really bungled the categorization of risk. restaurants and bars shouldn't have been lumped together in the first place. most restaurants could have employed some modest measures and stayed open at 80-90% capacity (which may be below break-even for some, but probably enough to ride out the pandemic with price hikes and/or modest gov loans), as risk is isolated between tables (no, that one…

What you are saying doesn't seem to be the reality. Studies show that there is in fact risk beyond just your table. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a5.htm?s_cid=mm... https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88543

Is there a particular portion of this study you're referring to? I don't see anything about risk at vs. beyond your table here.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#175

Post by username90 » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:17 AM UTC

the-rc wrote: post #158

dannyw wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps the "something" is simply antibodies and herd immunity? 1. In April (!!), 1 in 5 NYCers tested positive for antibodies: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-anti... 2. Given asymmetric social contact patterns, experts estimate that ~20% may be the threshold for herd immunity of COVID: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-... I support looking at the science, and this…

I'm one of those who tested positive for IgG antibodies in April. Same in June, August. These were Mount Sinai's quantitative research tests, with a high titer. I donated plasma twice. The only symptoms occurred in mid March. Then I got an Abbott qualitative IgG test earlier this month, because I was about to fly to Italy. Still positive. Once there, to end quarantine before the customary two weeks, I got two negativ…

> my inkling is still to explain NYC's current rates with mask wearing and reduced indoor interactions

Stockholm, Sweden has better numbers than New York yet people don't wear masks here nor are stuff closed. So you can't really say for sure that New York's numbers are thanks to those.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#176

Post by jimbob45 » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:17 AM UTC

mjfl wrote: post #123

What leverage do landlords have in enforcing payment, if no one would move in if they evict a business? I certainly would only pay very discounted rent until society reopens and I think it would be insane for anyone to suggest otherwise.

This is what I don’t get. You’ll pay more attracting a new tenet than if you just forgave rent until the time came that the property could hold a viable business again.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#177

Post by Dylan16807 » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:18 AM UTC

just-juan-post wrote: post #162

dehrmann wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how much people changed their behavior in sunbelt states in July when cases were on the rise. I don't remember lots of new restrictions or lockdowns. New cases just kinda peaked. I'm cautiously optimistic that the past week in the US is a blip from Labor day. Both peaks and troughs are improved from two weeks ago, but up from the week before.

There were supposed to be spikes after spring break, Memorial Day, 4th of July, Labor Day, back to school, the Sturgis bike rally. There were a blip...if that. Rather than biting our nails at daily numbers it's time to allow for individual choice and remove the government restrictions. It's clear that the virus is not nearly as potent as people think and we're prolonging this due to fear and politics - not science or…

Individual choice is not really applicable in this situation. Everyone that gets sick becomes very likely to get someone else sick. You're not just choosing for yourself, you're choosing for them, which isn't good.

And there have been lots of spikes among the groups that actually changed behavior drastically, especially in places like colleges.

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#178

Post by tuatoru » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:19 AM UTC

sitver wrote: post #109

skybrian wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s unsurprising that big changes to the legal system can’t easily be made on an ad-hoc, emergency basis. But that’s no excuse for not preparing for the next crisis. Contracts should have a “disaster clause” suspending payment during an officially declared disaster. Perhaps Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could require this for home mortgages?

Look up “Force Majore”

Nitpick, that's "force majeure".

French always sounds more impressive.[1][2] Lawyers love to sound grand, as though they're worth what they're paid.

1."Paté de foie" sounds a lot nicer than "liver paste," n'est-ce pas?

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#179

Post by just-juan-post » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:19 AM UTC

MiroF wrote: post #138

just-juan-post wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think spring was "the wave". In Nashville they closed bars and restaurants for 6 months because .004% of the cases came from bars and restaurants. We need to give people choice. If we wait until we get a vaccine it will be Fall 2022 and many Americans won't get it. What then? No bar and gym re-openenings until X percent of the population is verified to be vaccinated? Mandatory vaccination checks on entrance? Punt a…

> In Nashville they closed bars and restaurants for 6 months because .004% of the cases came from bars and restaurants. You're taking the number of cases that they've managed to contact trace to bars (difficult, especially if lots of cases all at once). You're then dividing that by the total number of cases, including the ones after they closed bars and concluding that it was the incorrect choice.

No am I am not but I understand your assumptive nature. I did speak incorrectly. Here is a repost of my previous comment:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8743605/Nashville-m...

In Nashville, TN (USA) bars and restaurants are closed to stop the spread of the virus. In e-mails obtained by a local television station, and later confirmed authentic by legal council, the e-mails discussed how only 80 of the 20,000 positive cases could be traced to bars and restaurants.

> Tennessee Lookout reporter Nate Rau asks, “The figure you gave of 'more than 80' does lead to a natural question: If there have been over 20,000 positive cases of COVID-19 in Davidson and only 80 or so are traced to restaurants and bars, doesn’t that mean restaurants and bars aren’t a very big problem?"

A day after the story broke they allowed bars and restaurants to re-open:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/09/17/nashville-...

Indoor recreation was shut down in this city for 80 cases in a city of 2 million aka .004% of the population.

Point zero zero four percent.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24535010

Re: Almost 90 percent of NYC bars and restaurants couldn’t pay August rent

#180

Post by vinay427 » Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 6:19 AM UTC

just-juan-post wrote: post #154

tedivm wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are saying doesn't seem to be the reality. Studies show that there is in fact risk beyond just your table. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a5.htm?s_cid=mm... https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88543

It's easy to point out risk. Anyone can do that. At what point do we fully re-open? Winter 2022 after everyone has had a mandatory vaccine?

It's not enough to just point out or dismiss different risk factors as if they're all the same, and both sides of this debate on restaurants seem to be guilty of this in some circles. Evaluating risk, done appropriately, is more complicated and involves at least weighting the risks of specific dangers of different options.