Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy • Hacker News Board

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#321

Post by scotty79 » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 11:41 AM UTC

dghughes wrote: post #83

I'm in southeastern Canada years ago smoke from Quebec forest fires made the sky red. The soil where I am from is also red. It was like living on Mars. The fun ends quickly when your throat gets scratchy and there is no where you can go to escape it the air in your house has to come from outside too. I'm not looking forward to any smoke now my dad has COPD, IPF, is on oxygen, and he's elderly. If we get any amount of…

> The fun ends quickly when your throat gets scratchy and there is no where you can go to escape it the air in your house has to come from outside too.

What boggles my mind is why, given the amount of usual air pollution and spikes like that, people care more if their kale is exactly organic.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#322

Post by dredmorbius » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 12:25 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #120

eplanit wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would help people understand the misguided policies that have been in effect, which prevent any meaningful reduction in fuel via cutting or burning -- policies meant to preserve the environment, but instead actually harm it.

"Preserving the environment" is rather a misdirection. Initially, fire suppression's "10 a.m. rule" was the result of forest industry advocacy. More recent burn opposition comes from real-estate interests --- homeowners, but also banks, mortgage holders, and insurance companies --- seeking to preserve asset values. Periods are roughly the 1930s for the first and 1970s/80s onward for the latter. Actual environmentalis…

See, e.g.,

'Fire is medicine': the tribes burning California forests to save them (2019) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/21/wildfire-pre...

Barriers and enablers for prescribed burns for wildfire management in California https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0451-7

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#323

Post by originalbryan2 » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:24 PM UTC

tyleo wrote: post #2

I’m in the midsts of this right now and it’s depressing. I spent yesterday morning with a sore throat and itchy eyes and most of the afternoon hopelessly driving hours away for a box fan and furnace filter (I finally found them). All the while I should have been working. Some of my coworkers have complained of week-long headaches. If anyone else is suffering from this: you are not alone.

Yeesh. I'm sorry. I'm in CO and even the levels here get me all of the symptoms you mentioned. Last week I drove 1700 miles and only escaped the smoke during a summertime snowfall. It rebounded and while driving I was suppressing a mild anxiety attack bc there's nothing you can do to escape it.

Driving at sunrise/sunset reminds me of the original Mad Max. Expect real and depressing.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#324

Post by little_hills » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 4:29 PM UTC

> the modeling systems on which they are based do not include smoke

Can anybody help with providing some links to content that would expand on this? It doesn’t have to be region/country specific, just looking to dig a bit deeper in a lore general sense about current models and future improvements.

I can take a guess and say that it wasn’t accounted for in current models as it might have been too niche a statistic to try and monitor, but either it’s becoming more of a factor now that’s having a prolonged (significant) effect on models or maybe there has just been a push to expand into those niches to make the models more adaptable in the future.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#325

Post by panda888888 » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 8:37 PM UTC

cdcarter wrote: post #278

hnarn wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I refuse to believe that all air filtering fans on Amazon are sold out, especially considering their extreme popularity in countries all over Asia. And even if we assume that’s the case for the sake of argument, you can still buy N95 particle masks of many different brands which will protect you well from particles in the air. They also mostly protect you from viruses. There was a pretty massive supply shortage of th…

At least in the Portland area, everything from Amazon is at least a four day delivery estimate. Not that things are sold out (they are in brick&mortar stores, for sure), but the distribution chain is unable to keep up, with people out sick, having evacuated, or even unable to drive as far as fast in the low visibility.

Amazon has officially stopped delivery in Portland due to the air quality. It's a hazardous work environment for their delivery workers.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#326

Post by robocat » Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 10:26 PM UTC

anonAndOn wrote: post #249

robocat wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would make the educated guess that the reason wood smoke is OK is because we have thousands of years of evolution to be more tolerant of wood smoke.

You would hope, but no. Wood smoke is still deadly.[0] [0] https://www.stoveteam.org/why-stoves

“more tolerant” is what I said. Evolution is mostly a slow process and can never reach perfection.

An evolutionary force that is too strong just kills a species.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#327

Post by asdasfasdfasdf » Thu, Sep 17, 2020, 12:18 AM UTC

rayhendricks wrote: post #319

asdasfasdfasdf wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No worries... I always react to this because I see a lot of people online parroting an "no really, I'm not a hippie" attitude without thinking about the origin of that feeling!

We have that regulatory capture of building and zoning in the USA so that even if you wanted to just go and build an earthship it would be technically illegal. If they can’t tax it or control it = not happening.

Oh for sure, I don't think just anyone should go building one... there are reasons we have building codes, but there's a lot of valuable knowledge there that gets discredited because of how these things look to "normal" people.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#328

Post by krustyburger » Thu, Sep 17, 2020, 2:20 AM UTC

drusepth wrote: post #245

krustyburger wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what a strange name. Why is “shoot” treated like an expletive? I’m actually not even sure I’m parsing the name correctly.

Shoot! is a common substitute for other, more abrasive expletives (Shit! Fuck!). I'd much rather have the former in a business/service name! Interestingly, the Android package name is indeed com.shitismoke.app

Right, but the point of using it is not to have to blank it out in form like this brand does. It would be like putting heck as hk.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#329

Post by xapata » Thu, Sep 17, 2020, 4:58 AM UTC

floor2 wrote: post #172

xapata wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Source? This one is easy to research. I'm not trying to convince you of anything, just being helpful.

Spreading dangerous misinformation is not helpful, and you are trying to convince them of something- namely that this air pollution is no big deal. PM2.5 pollution, even at levels far lower than being seen now, is associated with literally hundreds of negative outcomes- lower IQ, worse test scores in standardized tests, more depression, worse ADHD, more asthma, more cancers (of both the lungs and other body parts), e…

I didn't say, "No big deal." I am aware of the danger. Thus, "if you survive."

The issues you're describing are studied after what I'd say is long term exposure. So far it's less than a week. A person with healthy lungs and no related problems will be back to normal if this ceases in a relatively short time. Of course, that doesn't mean we should relax about smoke season becoming a month-long annual event.

They say dosage makes the poison, but duration is important, too.

Re: Smoke has caused temperature forecasts to go crazy

#330

Post by kibibyte » Thu, Sep 17, 2020, 7:19 AM UTC

olyjohn wrote: post #296

kibibyte wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at the current Amazon search results for “air purifier”: first one doesn’t ship to California, second is out of stock, third one is ridiculously expensive ($800!) and been shown to have a questionable effectiveness, fourth one can only cover a small room (and won’t arrive until next week), fifth and sixth ones are out of stock. Also most people don’t enjoy wearing an N95 mask for a long time. Imagine wearing…

Is that true that the smoke will get in after a few hours? Over the last few days, as soon as I step outside, I can smell the smoke out there really bad. I thought for sure that if it was smokey in the house, my nose would be used to the smell. I mean, I can see some particles getting into the house, but it has to be far better indoors doesn't it?

Certainly yes, it's better indoors. However long it'll take will depend on how good your insulation is (a lot of older construction in the Bay Area has really poor insulation; after all, we don't have to deal with harsh winters). That said, when it gets really bad outside (AQI >150) for over a few days, it's almost certainly going to get bad inside if you don't have any filtration.

One thing worth mentioning though is that the smoke you smell is volatile organic compounds, and the smoke you see is (I believe) PM10. You're not going to smell or see PM2.5, which is what these HEPA air purifiers are designed to filter. I'm not confident in this, but my intuition is that these smaller PM2.5 particles will find their way into your home more more quickly than the larger PM10 particles will.