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Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

bbc.com

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Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#291

Post by tanyatik »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #212
tanyatik wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are a lot less different from you than you think.

Sure. But Russians are notorious for various things - being blunt and serious; depressive, black humor; risk-takers. Not everybody, but the stereotype can inform the discussion, which was Why would anybody do this?

It seems that this stereotype is too generic and sweeping to be useful even if it was true.

Instead we could use facts that are already known about e.g. Putin -- that he's an individual for whom sowing fear is more important than not being blamed, as the other similar poisonings have shown.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#292

Post by nomadnomad »

baybal2 wrote: post #248
nomadnomad wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not true. Putin's approval rating is actually pretty high even when measured by NGOs sponsored by the "West". You'll be surprised, but it is quoted to be 60% in July 2020. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_image_of_Vladimir_Putin

I'll tell you how they are cooked: 1. The legacy of 8 decades under a government practicing public polling under a gunpoint. 2. Only the most well fed, and carefree Potemkin villages can be surveyed. 3. The lack of any other genuine option other than saying "I back a complete joke "alternative" candidates," which are set up by the regime itself to play Pope Gapon 4. Plainly faked polls

I am not referring to fake government-run polls.

I am referring to polling agencies that are very west-leaning, and even they can't blatantly lie about it. His approval rating as of a month ago is 59-60% [1][2][3].

In fact his approval rating after the annexation of Crimea was at all time high of 85%. Check the sources. Again, these are not government-run polls.

Lots of good data on it (thanks to google):

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/putin-facing-growi...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-ra...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/06/putins-approval-ra...

And I am not saying Putin did or didn't order the poisoning of Navalny. I am just saying he is not the only one with motive/opportunity contrary to popular belief pushed in the mainstream media propaganda.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#293

Post by pvg »

BrianOnHN wrote: post #284
dang wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, for the privacy reason pvg mentioned (edit: since deleted, but he made the simple point that it would violate users' privacy), and also for a different reason: it would convince no one. The only people with enough time and energy to bother looking at it would be people who already have strong views, and they would inevitably pull their preconceptions back out of the data and claim that they'd proven something. An…

Dang, I think that's a solid response. Thank you. The theory behind SSM seems well thought out. I think it would be helpful to enlighten people about the SSM when noting that a response is breaking the rules for an accusation of astroturfing. For me, I think a brief explanation that well formed arguments are the only defense against an SSM would have removed a feeling of helplessness derived from reading your initial…

The theory behind SSM seems well thought out.

And it's fun to extend in the obvious ways. For instance, what if a SSM (an 'essessum', as they are often referred to in the technical literature) is orchestrating a campaign to write comments insinuating astroturfery into HN threads? After all, taken as a group such comments look very much like the kind of commentary a nefarious corporate or state actor might promote, as pointed out by the shillologists themselves! A curious and under-explored connection.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#294

Post by itroot »

Guy from Russia here. Not an expert, but I feel the pain when my country looks so negative in the news.

First, I wish Alexey fast recovery.

Second, Alexey wasn't a popular politic figure in past time, I believe that his peak of popularity was in 2013-2015.

Third, I think no one here is actually benefiting from this tragic event... the whole story just seems quite strange. Frankly, there a lot of more simple approaches that can kill a man - no need to use sophisticated things like chemical weapons (which actually doesn't work as intended).

I hope that this story will be more clear pretty soon.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#295

Post by lightgreen »

scottlocklin wrote: post #274

There was reasonable reason to believe Berezovsky was responsible for the Litvinenko poisoning; it's not inconceivable something like that is going on here with some other oligarch Nalvany pissed off; he is a corruption reformer more than anything else. Since the BBC is a propaganda organ rather than a news service, they are singularly unlikely to present us with any of the other potential candidates, but I could pro…

> There was reasonable reason to believe Berezovsky was responsible for the Litvinenko poisoning

No there were no reasons to believe Berezovsky poisoned Litvinenko.

Litvinenko was the one who revealed attempt to kill Berezovsky.

Berezovsky and Litvinenko worked together against Putin.

There was no motive for Berezovsky to kill Litvinenko. In addition to that:

Berezovsky was far less powerful when Litvinenko was poisoned. Obtaining polonium was not trivial for Berezovsky.

And finally, UK police found who poisoned Litvinenko, it was Andrei Lugovoi who is currently a member of parliament in Russia. There are no connections between Lugovoi and Berezovski, but obviuosly there are connections between Lugovoi and Russian government. In fact, Lugovoi was given a medal for "serving the fatherland" some time after the poisoning.

No, Berezovsky did not poison Litvinenko, and you are spreading conspiracy theories.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#296

Post by lightgreen »

itroot wrote: post #294

Guy from Russia here. Not an expert, but I feel the pain when my country looks so negative in the news. First, I wish Alexey fast recovery. Second, Alexey wasn't a popular politic figure in past time, I believe that his peak of popularity was in 2013-2015. Third, I think no one here is actually benefiting from this tragic event... the whole story just seems quite strange. Frankly, there a lot of more simple approache…

> I feel the pain when my country looks so negative in the news.

I'm from Russia, and I feel pain when people mix my country and my my country corrupt and criminal government.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#297

Post by lightgreen »

mikelyons wrote: post #251
SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it is actually very sad, lots of their working class, really believe that Putin actually is successfully pulling it off.

You could say the same about America and Trump. The masses always will consume the propaganda, I don't see how this will ever be eliminated. Rather than sad, it's just part of the system. How can we improve the results? Is there a systems-thinking approach that takes this into account and bends it toward positive ends?

Or you can say the same about America and Biden. Or America and Bush. Or America and Clinton.

> The masses always will consume the propaganda, I don't see how this will ever be eliminated.

I could say that you have consumed leftists propaganda about Trump. But I won't.

> The masses always will consume the propaganda > How can we improve the results?

For starters, stop thinking of people as masses. They are capable of making intelligent decisions.

I think I understand why when choosing between Clinton and Trump people picked Trump. This was logical decision for many of Trump voters.

It would be very helpful for the current US democratic party to understand why people voted from Trump without pinpointig it to racism and homophobia and other sins.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#298

Post by ibobev »

I'm not a chemist but it seems that Novichok is the poison with the worst track record. It was claimed that this is extremely dangerous military grade neuro agent, but currently from six people claimed to be poisoned with it only one died.

I'm starting to wonder why the Russian secret services blamed using it against political opponents, try it again and again. It is completely possible that they want not to kill, but just to intimidate, but also it is completely possible that the "Novichok" is just a propaganda weapon of the West.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#299

Post by siliconvalley1 »

dang wrote: post #256
actionscripted wrote: post #91

If you ever wonder about the extent of Russia's online efforts consider that the comments on this HN thread might be part of things. Not saying anything in here is good/bad/other but you rarely see this level of flagged and down-voted comments in a HN thread.

This comment breaks the site guidelines: " Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data. " https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Sinister insinuation about astroturfing is the internet's favorite pastime. The overwhelming…

This is such a cop out. So there is no consistent astroturfing but there is a significant contingent of Pro-Putin posters who support assassinations with Nerve Agents who largely work in the tech-sphere? I find that hard to believe...

Where are the results of your so called hours of analysis? What qualifies you to even do that analysis? You really think you are sophisticated enough to sniff out GRU operatives?

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#300

Post by siliconvalley1 »

dilyevsky wrote: post #168
sam_lowry_ wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The events in Belarus recently demonstrated that you are wrong. I ran a small (1 mln pageviews/month) online Russian-speaking community since 2003 and since 2014, my main preoccupation are Kremlin bots. The population in Russia is mostly anti-Putin, they just do not speak up, because the state made sure they feel isolated.

Not a secret russian government spends considerable resources on online astroturfing but there are large constituency of closet (or not so closet) putin supporters even among tech folks of 30yo and older (basically people who were alive and old enough to remember 90s and 80s)

Why would you think that there is a large number of Pro-Putin Pro-Political Assassination tech workers? This seems like a ridiculous statement.
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