Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok • Hacker News Board

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#151

Post by paganel » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:23 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #86

sneak wrote: post #43

This is the second time they've done this, IIRC. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Skripal It's pretty much the ultimate flex, no? "We can kill anyone we want in any country, and you can't do shit about it."

Not second, but very likely few dozenth or more. There were at least a dozen of high profile people in Russia who died under equally bizarre circumstances, with Kivilidi being the best known.

I think it is also used in industrial espionage cases, we just don’t hear that much about it. The SO of a former acquaintance of mine got poisoned really bad while working for an oil company in one of the Gulf states (I think Qatar). He got quickly transferred for treatment in the US, even though he’s from Eastern Europe.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#152

Post by sam_lowry_ » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:23 PM UTC

ogogmad wrote: post #135

actionscripted wrote: post #91

If you ever wonder about the extent of Russia's online efforts consider that the comments on this HN thread might be part of things. Not saying anything in here is good/bad/other but you rarely see this level of flagged and down-voted comments in a HN thread.

I think many Russian people, especially those who watch or read mainly Russian news, hold such views with complete sincerity. The internal propaganda is quite effective.

The events in Belarus recently demonstrated that you are wrong.

I ran a small (1 mln pageviews/month) online Russian-speaking community since 2003 and since 2014, my main preoccupation are Kremlin bots.

The population in Russia is mostly anti-Putin, they just do not speak up, because the state made sure they feel isolated.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#153

Post by notdang » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:24 PM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #137

actionscripted wrote: post #91

If you ever wonder about the extent of Russia's online efforts consider that the comments on this HN thread might be part of things. Not saying anything in here is good/bad/other but you rarely see this level of flagged and down-voted comments in a HN thread.

Russian fanboys, sure. Actual Russian security forces, doubtful. They aren't idiots. They aren't going to pick a fight on HN were things are so easily moderated/downvoted/flagged. The real agents work deep inside their facebook/twitter/whatsapp nests. What we have here are pro-russia but nevertheless amature activists.

I also thought that the security forces aren't idiots. But after seeing this, I have some doubts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Retlia2xT8A

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#154

Post by ceejayoz » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:25 PM UTC

bigdict wrote: post #146

ceejayoz wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Russian defector, poisoned by Russian intelligence agents using a chemical only the Russians have? Who do you think?

I don’t know. What about you? Just say it. No need for this circuitous intimation.

I don't know for certain they're not lizard aliens in skin suits trying to frame the Russians to cause chaos on Earth before they come harvest us.

Barring substantial evidence for the silly/unlikely explanations, I'm quite comfortable with the sensible one.

There's plenty of evidence for me to conclude the Skripal poisonings were carried out by Russia.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#155

Post by nafizh » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:26 PM UTC

There will never be a power vacuum in world politics. If it’s not going to be US, it’s going to be China and/or Russia. I have been thinking quite a lot how will that world look. Will it be better or worse?

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#156

Post by bigdict » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:27 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #154

bigdict wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know. What about you? Just say it. No need for this circuitous intimation.

I don't know for certain they're not lizard aliens in skin suits trying to frame the Russians to cause chaos on Earth before they come harvest us. Barring substantial evidence for the silly/unlikely explanations, I'm quite comfortable with the sensible one. There's plenty of evidence for me to conclude the Skripal poisonings were carried out by Russia.

Come on, who did it?!

Edit: ok, you finally said it in an edit.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#157

Post by ardy42 » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:27 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #128

ardy42 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NATO has enough commandos to take down Russian political leadership in a single evening. And Russia probably has enough commandos to do the same to NATO leadership as well. Neither side actually does that because it would be a suicide mission that would just result in a war.

1. Russian leadership would not be able to order that if it will be shot dead. 2. NATO towers over Russia for when it comes to size, and quality of elite infantry forces. 3. The loyalty of Russian military is so low, that the collapse of the military leadership will be near immediate upon news of heads rolling in the Kremlin. Absolutely nobody wants to die for those guys. 4. Even if none of the points above will come…

> 1. Russian leadership would not be able to order that if it will be shot dead.

If the political leadership of a nation gets assassinated, I do not think it's reasonable to expect the military leadership to sit on their hands forever, waiting for orders from the dead.

And if you want to get down to brass tacks, both NATO and Russia have the military capability to literally exterminate the bulk of each other's populations, and I beleive Russia is known to have automated fail-deadly retaliation systems.

> 2. NATO towers over Russia for when it comes to size, and quality of elite infantry forces.

Honestly, I would think surprise is more important than anything with such an operation as you propose, because success would mainly depend on attacking a target with military-level force that's completely unprepared for that.

> 3. The loyalty of Russian military is do low, that the collapse of the military leadership will be near immediate upon news of heads rolling in the Kremlin. Absolutely nobody wants to die for those guys.

Maybe not for those people themselves, but they might be willing to die for the nation that those people lead. I'm sure a scheme to assassinate the entire political leadership of a country might evoke some nationalist feelings.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#158

Post by nefitty » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #125

actionscripted wrote: post #91

If you ever wonder about the extent of Russia's online efforts consider that the comments on this HN thread might be part of things. Not saying anything in here is good/bad/other but you rarely see this level of flagged and down-voted comments in a HN thread.

Perhaps, but implications of astroturfing don't really contribute anything to the conversation. If you are worried about astroturfing, you might email hn@ycombinator.com. They're pretty good overall at taking care of this kind of stuff.

I think it’s helpful to people who might not have otherwise considered the possibility. The idea that there may be propagandists in the comments presumably changes the way a person consumes the thread.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#159

Post by tim333 » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #109

bigdict wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is they?

A Russian defector, poisoned by Russian intelligence agents using a chemical only the Russians have? Who do you think?

Though it remains a question of which Russians in particular. Especially with Navalny it seems a bit crude for Putin to have ordered it.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#160

Post by occamrazor » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 5:28 PM UTC

rumanator wrote: post #119

jamescontrol wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? It’s likely the reason why we have seen terrorist attacks where people drive into crowds of people. Cars and trucks is everywhere, its easily accessible. I would argue that the other way around is the dangerous assumption, that people will NOT use the easiest accessible means to hurt other people.

> Why? Because the goal is reaching the goal, not the process. Undoubtedly, if s terrorist group has access to this stuff, they won't reject the idea of using it just because driving a van or yielding a knife might appear simpler. We're talking about lines of thinking that planned hijacking three commercial airplanes simultaneously to fly them into high visibility targets. How is spreading poison something that's out…

Bin Laden’s Al Qaida was very unusual in its long term planning. Most terrorist attacks by other groups have been unsophisticated.