Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy • Hacker News Board

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#61

Post by CraigJPerry » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:04 AM UTC

ArkVark wrote: post #40

Animats wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's plans aren't a big secret. There's Made In China 2025.[1] The 14th Five Year Plan is being drafted now. Unlike the USSR, China was reasonably successful in meeting the goals of the 13 Five Year Plans so far, with the notable exception of the Great Leap Forward fiasco of the 1960s. The Made In China 2025 plan focuses on pharmaceutical, automotive, aerospace, semiconductor, IT and robotics manufacturing. The go…

China also has a higher average IQ than much of the rest of the world: 104, vs 98 for the USA: https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php China is also pursuing eugenic strategies with the one-child policy, and controlled migration into cities (which encourages assortative mating). The Fertility Rate of 1.6 is reasonable. By contrast many Western countries are pursuing dysgenic strategies through the provision of m…

This seems more like a dumb conspiracy, the kind of pseudoscience BS you’d feed to QANON’s.

Let’s go through it piece by piece:

    1. Doesn’t define how IQ was measured in each country
    2. Doesn’t state when for each country
    3. Doesn’t define how the average was calculated
    4. Doesn’t provide any data on rate of change of IQ - this is important, for those not aware IQ tests are reframed every few years to keep most people on the 85-115 range. The revision trend is always upwards so far - it’s arguable that we’re getting smarter because of flaws in IQ as a concept but we’re certainly becoming more capable in the modern world which is not controversial

Enough about IQ we could bang on more about statistical significance and anything between 85 - 115 is average but lets move on to the real meat to be refuted.

    6. China’s one-child policy formally ended 5 years ago after many years of gradual reductions in restrictions
    7. China is actively trying to walk back the damage of its 1 child policies and is incentivising married couples to have more than 1 child (and somewhat confusingly, has actually been doing this since before the end of the 1 child policy)

Now the real BS part

    8. No country anywhere is pursuing dysgenic strategy
    9. Welfare - help given to people who need it. I am intrigued what you actually mean here, are you suggesting we should let people die who can Otherwise be saved by provision of assistance?
    10. Intake of migrants from “lower iq” countries - are these doctors and engineers on Visas or asylum seekers and refugees from areas rendered uninhabitable by war, climate or lawlessness?

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#62

Post by quantaum_dot » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:07 AM UTC

eunos wrote: post #47

roenxi wrote: post #36

This is probably just the US Navy making an indirect play for a bigger budget. The Chinese navy and US navy are not comparable. But there is a real change afoot, it seems likely that the Chinese will master making battleships if they put their mind to it. It seems likely they have the industrial supply chains to sustain a real military build-up if they want to. Their manufacturing capacity is a very real thing and th…

They already have a sufficient mastery in making surface fleet, mainly because they also have a robust and massive civilian shipbuilding industry (neck-to-neck with South Korea). Their next target probably is to master making submarine and nuclear propulsion. What I am looking forward is that assuming Chinese battery maker managed to lead the world both in research and manufacturing because massive Chinese Electric V…

China already has nuclear powered submarines

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#63

Post by timwaagh » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:16 AM UTC

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #58

timwaagh wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China already went to war with the us over korea. not unsuccesfully and in times when China wasn't considered a threat. I'd say the US needs to treat the prospect of war with China with extreme caution. Why not shore up your own alliances first before attempting to undertake such a massive project?

yes timing right now would be terrible. if those alliances would be solid however then maybe there would be less reason to escalate things (because soft power and sanctions would be more effective?).

hopefully yes

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#64

Post by Animats » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:17 AM UTC

CraigJPerry wrote: post #41

Animats wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's plans aren't a big secret. There's Made In China 2025.[1] The 14th Five Year Plan is being drafted now. Unlike the USSR, China was reasonably successful in meeting the goals of the 13 Five Year Plans so far, with the notable exception of the Great Leap Forward fiasco of the 1960s. The Made In China 2025 plan focuses on pharmaceutical, automotive, aerospace, semiconductor, IT and robotics manufacturing. The go…

I wish my country put their weight behind a strategy. A 30 year plan or something like that.

It's called "industrial policy". The US traditionally has avoided that. It causes huge stress on the political system because it ties industry success to lobbying power. And until recently, the US didn't need it.

The UK did a lot of that in the 1950s through the 1980s, and it resulted in "lemon socialism" - the government had all the declining industries. Coal, steel, and railroads, mostly.

Japan did better, with MITI telling industry what to do, and advanced the country enormously. Until the 1989 bubble collapse and real estate crash, from which Japan never fully recovered.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#65

Post by Reimersholme » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:21 AM UTC

camillomiller wrote: post #20

China Military spending 2019: $261 billion, or 1.9% GDP US Military spending in 2019: $732 billion, or 3.4% GDP China leapfrogged the U.S. by spending a little less than one third of what the US squandered. Just let that sink in. Oh and you know what China really is spending its money on, instead of militarized local police forces? Research. China R&D spending in 2018: 4.11% of GDP. U.S. R&D spending in 2016 and max…

Chinas increased investments in R&D are impressive, but where did you get the number 4.11% for 2018? As far as I'm aware, so far they've never even reached their target of 2.5% R&D spending per year.

"China continued its yearslong run of double-digit percentage increases in spending on R&D in 2019, but the nation is likely to fall short of a long-standing goal of increasing R&D expenditures to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by this year."

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/china-again-boosts-r...

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#66

Post by Reimersholme » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:25 AM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #23

lazyeye wrote: post #6

I wonder how much of the hundreds millions (billions?) of dollars China was able to save due its status as a "developing economy" contributed to its massive military buildup. Or for that matter, that high priority for all developing economies, putting a lander on the moon. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3004873/c...

China is a big country and large parts are still "developing". But because it is so large, other parts are capable of landing things on the Moon.

That could be said of USA or EU as well though.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#67

Post by raxxorrax » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:33 AM UTC

ArkVark wrote: post #40

Animats wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's plans aren't a big secret. There's Made In China 2025.[1] The 14th Five Year Plan is being drafted now. Unlike the USSR, China was reasonably successful in meeting the goals of the 13 Five Year Plans so far, with the notable exception of the Great Leap Forward fiasco of the 1960s. The Made In China 2025 plan focuses on pharmaceutical, automotive, aerospace, semiconductor, IT and robotics manufacturing. The go…

China also has a higher average IQ than much of the rest of the world: 104, vs 98 for the USA: https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php China is also pursuing eugenic strategies with the one-child policy, and controlled migration into cities (which encourages assortative mating). The Fertility Rate of 1.6 is reasonable. By contrast many Western countries are pursuing dysgenic strategies through the provision of m…

Yes, you can see it in the comments sections on the internet.

If not using eugenic strategies means loosing some war, I think I would opt for defeat and welcome our new Chinese overlords.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#68

Post by contravert » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 11:11 AM UTC

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #10

whether this navy is effective in a theater of war _today_ is a good question. They tend to be sub-optimal in a time dominated by PMC's and asymmetric warfare. Having a highly complex, maintenance-intensive fleet is nice for show and maybe to scare the odd South East Asian country into submission during disputes in the South China Sea. But for it to be effective it needs to be exercised in real life (kinetic) conditi…

It's interesting how one can simultaneously think China is "war mongering" while at the same time see nothing wrong with advocating starting a war immediately.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#69

Post by DarthGhandi » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 11:23 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #17

stann wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is NOT 'imprisoning a million Muslims in a concentration camp'. Dig a little deeper. Hyperbole does not help anybody.

You are correct in that they have not imprisoned a million Uyghur muslims. But it is cultural genocide with widespread, systemic rape, torture and murder. Also it is questionable about whether they are free to leave the Xinjiang area.

> genocide

That's a big word do you have any proof other than military thinktanks rehashing the same old nonsense?

What's a good estimate on how many have been tortured, raped and murdered? (To use your words)

When the US still has more people in prison predominantly of one race (not per capita either, gross numbers) it's perhaps a good time to talk about the systemic imprisonment of black people that no one seems to flinch about.

For all the talk of Uyghurs literally no Western country is taking them in, do you see the UK or US lining up to take in a million Muslim separatists?

It's yellow peril all over again. Why is the UN human rights commissioner repeatedly refusing to visit the region despite getting numerous requests? Why are Muslim Western allies visiting and finding nothing extreme that matches the constant media bombardment we receive in the West? Our Western aligned Muslim allies are literally signing multicountry letters to the UNHRC saying that it's all a media beatup and yet no one here really wants to talk about that.

Are we really going to base all this on evidence from the people that insisted Saddam had weapons of Mass Destruction and that justified a 20 year war that resulted in millions of deaths mostly civilian? Do you honestly trust them this time aroundor is it _different_ this time?

https://medium.com/@jerry_grey2002/abc-four-corners-tell-the... Here's a solid read from an Australian policeman who cycled through Xinjiang province, nothing he sees lines up with the rhetoric you'll find from internet commentators who have never been to China.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#70

Post by luckylion » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 11:29 AM UTC

Lio wrote: post #26

luckylion wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't we have that already? Star Wars has always been the story of authoritarian governments, hasn't it? A lot of the aesthetics looked like they are meant to portray the Nazis, but the empire lacks (to my knowledge, I'm not really into it) the "we must exterminate the undesirables" part and feels much closer like an authoritarian power that branches out and suppresses dissent, classical empire stuff, but without the…

Star Wars is fantasy. It lacks the bite of hard speculative fiction. To quote William Gibson “the future is already here it’s just not well diffused yet”. So what will our world really look like if we extrapolate from now? I’ll bet it’s less neon and flying cars and more boarded up retail shops and government sponsored troll farms. The CCP isn’t building this navy for fun. Does anything China’s done recently make you…

> I’ll bet it’s less neon and flying cars and more boarded up retail shops and government sponsored troll farms.

No technological advancement? Has the CCP indicated that they'd prefer a stand still on that front?

I'm sure the future will be different as is expected when a large power claims its place. Whether the losses will be in the West or primarily in the Third World will be a major question. So far, the Chinese seem not too much into large scale empire building, but primarily exercising control over "their backyard", similar to Russia in Ukraine etc and the US in Latin America. But that might change, of course, if they ever become the most powerful nation with a similar margin over the rest as the US has enjoyed for the last decades.