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The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

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Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#61
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Metcalfe offers a very interesting conservative perspective. The article IMHO has a more convincing conservative counterpoint: Labs, compared to university researchers, also maintain a constant link with delivering value and, ultimately, profitability. University incentive, prestige, and funding regimes suffer from the standard problems around non-profits: if you’re not trying to make profits, what are you trying to…

> if you’re not trying to make profits, what are you trying to do ? Like if working with a profit incentive is doing social good.

So making a profit most of the time means that you have 100,000 customers whose live are better off because of what you're doing.

Sometimes this breaks down because you make other people's lives worse in order to make the 100,000 better, i.e. externalities.

But continuing to get funding for doing a social good means you're convincing someone you're making someone's else's life better(i.e. nonprofits). The problem is sometimes this convincing is entirely unrelated to actually making people's lives better.

Or you're convincing a beaurocrat that you'll make his life better. And hopefully the incentive structures are aligned such that this involves making someone's else's life better. But this can be incredibly tricky with the layers of reporting up to some political appointee who reports to a politician who reports to the people. And any break in incentives or more likely attention along the way can misalign the work with social good.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just finished reading Mitchell Waldrop's book The Dream Machines which is largely about J.C.R. Licklider and it has a lot of stories about the things Metcalfe is talking about during the 60's and 70's and into the 80's. It's a long, detailed book and I recommend it. After finishing the book it made me feel like progress has slowed tremendously. Look at the changes from 1960 to 1970 or from 1970 to 1980 and compare…

genuine question (asking because i have a biased perspective): why dont you consider advances in ai to be a major shift? in the past decade, there has been a rapid increase in capabilities in computer vision, language understanding, robotics, etc.

AI researchers have been over-promising and under-delivering for 70 years now.

It seems like AI has settled into making discriminators. Maybe intelligence really is just pattern matching and grouping? I don't think it is, but I could be wrong.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just finished reading Mitchell Waldrop's book The Dream Machines which is largely about J.C.R. Licklider and it has a lot of stories about the things Metcalfe is talking about during the 60's and 70's and into the 80's. It's a long, detailed book and I recommend it. After finishing the book it made me feel like progress has slowed tremendously. Look at the changes from 1960 to 1970 or from 1970 to 1980 and compare…

CRISPR is at least as big an innovation as the ones you mention. Perhaps you are biased to the areas where you have the most familiarity ?

I didn't think of CRISPR and related genomics work. It definitely has potential to change the world like commercial flight or the internet, but I don't think it has yet...

Definitely something I need to keep thinking about. Biology probably is the next area to see some giant advances like physics did 80 years ago.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will be a bit poorly thought out, but the response goes like this: why invest in corporate R&D with uncertain returns when you can invest in index funds with guaranteed return? The stock market is supported by ample goverment intervention, the rest of society not at all. Just consider the major stock market indices and compare that with continuing unemployment claims. Now you have a feedback mechanism that suppo…

> The stock market is supported by ample goverment intervention, the rest of society not at all. Mind clarifying this with specifics?

Have you looked at what the Federal Reserve has been buying since March? Compare that to the extra 600 dollars in unemployment benefits that ran out last month, and also consider the complete fuckedupness that the public health response has been in large tracts of the nation.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

genuine question (asking because i have a biased perspective): why dont you consider advances in ai to be a major shift? in the past decade, there has been a rapid increase in capabilities in computer vision, language understanding, robotics, etc.

AI researchers have been over-promising and under-delivering for 70 years now. It seems like AI has settled into making discriminators. Maybe intelligence really is just pattern matching and grouping? I don't think it is, but I could be wrong.

It doesn't seem that AI and robotics over-promise. Sure, we're not at AGI, but if you look at the potential(i.e. startups) to replace jobs, there are tons of that.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#66
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI researchers have been over-promising and under-delivering for 70 years now. It seems like AI has settled into making discriminators. Maybe intelligence really is just pattern matching and grouping? I don't think it is, but I could be wrong.

It doesn't seem that AI and robotics over-promise. Sure, we're not at AGI, but if you look at the potential(i.e. startups) to replace jobs, there are tons of that.

The same was said of expert systems in the 1980’s. Yes, there’s potential, but that potential hasn’t been realized yet. At least not to the point where people compare the impact of AI to the impact of semi-conductors and integrated circuits.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#67
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that better for R&D scientists and engineers? They now have to come up with a possible technology progression, secure funding, build out the tech using some secondary business model, and then convince the corp to buy their company. It only seems more efficient for the corporation.

They actually get rewarded when they succeed. The man who invented artifical diamonds, a billion dollar industry, got 10usd savings bond. Plus no bureaucracy. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracy_Hall Also, I imagine that getting funding from a pool of VCs (looking to fund long shots, with some expertise in the field maybe) is easier than from a single CEO who happens to run the place and has to justify all this on…

But what if they want to research something that will never, ever be profitable.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#68
post #56

This is a good article but I'm not sure it completely nails it. Firstly, it's not clear the industrial R&D lab has actually fallen. The article starts to engage with this at the end but doesn't really do so properly. It's easy to find examples of firms doing large scale expensive R&D: - Many firms making big investments in AI - Self driving cars - SpaceX reusable rockets, plus all the other Musk firms - Advanced data…

> Advanced graphics R&D is driven primarily by video game firms

Just going to speak from my experience here; this makes it very hard to get into computer graphics research. Any academic won't want you working on stuff that's "funded by industry" rather than funded by NSF and DOE. But you won't be able to get an industry research position unless you did graphics research during schooling. You can sometimes make a case with HPC and CUDA work, but I've found it to be a tricky dilemma.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They actually get rewarded when they succeed. The man who invented artifical diamonds, a billion dollar industry, got 10usd savings bond. Plus no bureaucracy. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracy_Hall Also, I imagine that getting funding from a pool of VCs (looking to fund long shots, with some expertise in the field maybe) is easier than from a single CEO who happens to run the place and has to justify all this on…

But what if they want to research something that will never, ever be profitable.

Isn’t that what academia is for?

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

genuine question (asking because i have a biased perspective): why dont you consider advances in ai to be a major shift? in the past decade, there has been a rapid increase in capabilities in computer vision, language understanding, robotics, etc.

AI researchers have been over-promising and under-delivering for 70 years now. It seems like AI has settled into making discriminators. Maybe intelligence really is just pattern matching and grouping? I don't think it is, but I could be wrong.

Many cognitive scientists would argue that it's also about building models which include statistical/Bayesian models but more than that.

To your broader point, it's not hard to find some specific domains of machine learning where there have been huge advances. But zoom out and look at the broader picture and the results aren't so impressive.

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