Live data from Hacker News

The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

worksinprogress.co

51–60 of 86 posts

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#51
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's really easy to say in retrospect, just like it's easy to say any major discovery was inevitable after we've already discovered it.

But it is really like that. It depends on the groundwork that's there, technical capabilities and tooling. Once that's in place it only takes a lucky guy to pluck the discovery out of the air. Consider dual-space methods in crystallography. Herb Hauptman is credited with the discovery. My undergraduate advisor obliquely mentioned that he had done something similar in 1986 - obtain atom positions from direct methods,…

It is like that. But simply discoveries being delayed could delay technical advancement for decades and even centuries in the long run.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#52
I think most of the changes to corporate R&D in the past 30 years closely reflect the shift in focus toward short term profits, thereby reducing stockholder will to invest in high risk new new things like quantum computing or single cell genomics.

At the same time, the cultural rise of tech startups has encouraged corporate R&D heads to farm out much of their interest in cutting edge tech to underwrite those startups from afar. By investing in startups from funds separate from mainstream R&D, it's easier to lay blame for failures outside the internal R&D organization.

I've worked in big pharma R&D for 15 years and gov't/military R&D for 20 years before that. Increasingly I see the forms of R&D diversifying and extending outside the org's primary lab, just as 100% of DARPA projects are fielded external to the DoD labs. As external R&D investments and partnerships rise, it's little wonder that primary R&D labs shrink and their focus shifts to better serve short term RoI like improving / debugging internal processes and inefficiencies.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#53
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Metcalfe offers a very interesting conservative perspective. The article IMHO has a more convincing conservative counterpoint: Labs, compared to university researchers, also maintain a constant link with delivering value and, ultimately, profitability. University incentive, prestige, and funding regimes suffer from the standard problems around non-profits: if you’re not trying to make profits, what are you trying to…

> if you’re not trying to make profits, what are you trying to do ? Like if working with a profit incentive is doing social good.

It's pretty close. The idea that profits and social good are opposites was tested to destruction by communism. Profits mean that at least some people, somewhere, find your work more than worth the effort in a very real sense (they gave up some money to get it).

Social good is undefined, so it ends up meaning whatever the speaker wants it to mean. Lots of university professors think critical theory is socially good, and lots more people strongly disagree. There's no actual way to resolve that dispute because academia is disconnected from any kind of reality check.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#54
post #43
post #22

Bob Metcalfe, self professed “conservative hippie,” inventor of the Ethernet, founder of 3Com, of Xerox Parc fame, has this to offer: > One of the few things that government should do is finance research, because — I have learned from many years — the only companies that can afford to do research are monopolies. Real companies cannot afford to do research other than monopolies. And there are some famous ones. The tel…

> other than the transistor and Unix and the princess telephone, what did we get for all that money? Bell Labs may not have been able to commercialize all of its discoveries, but humanity certainly got a lot more than Unix and the transistor. Quote [1]: "Researchers working at Bell Labs are credited with the development of radio astronomy, the transistor, the laser, the photovoltaic cell, the charge-coupled device (C…

> Bell Labs may not have been able to commercialize all of its discoveries, but humanity certainly got a lot more than Unix and the transistor.

This point illustrates that human benefits and profit do not always align. If we want to focus more on making things that benefit humanity, we have change our system that runs off of profit.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#55
post #22

Bob Metcalfe, self professed “conservative hippie,” inventor of the Ethernet, founder of 3Com, of Xerox Parc fame, has this to offer: > One of the few things that government should do is finance research, because — I have learned from many years — the only companies that can afford to do research are monopolies. Real companies cannot afford to do research other than monopolies. And there are some famous ones. The tel…

I just finished reading Mitchell Waldrop's book The Dream Machines which is largely about J.C.R. Licklider and it has a lot of stories about the things Metcalfe is talking about during the 60's and 70's and into the 80's. It's a long, detailed book and I recommend it. After finishing the book it made me feel like progress has slowed tremendously. Look at the changes from 1960 to 1970 or from 1970 to 1980 and compare…

CRISPR is at least as big an innovation as the ones you mention. Perhaps you are biased to the areas where you have the most familiarity ?

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#56
This is a good article but I'm not sure it completely nails it.

Firstly, it's not clear the industrial R&D lab has actually fallen. The article starts to engage with this at the end but doesn't really do so properly. It's easy to find examples of firms doing large scale expensive R&D:

- Many firms making big investments in AI

- Self driving cars

- SpaceX reusable rockets, plus all the other Musk firms

- Advanced database technologies (e.g. at Microsoft, Google, Amazon)

- Advanced compiler R&D (Oracle/GraalVM)

- The huge sums thrown around in pharma R&D

- Advanced graphics R&D is driven primarily by video game firms

- Intel/AMD/ARM/etc in CPU tech

- Tons of R&D in oil and gas

and those are just examples we're most familiar with. Are these firms running "labs"? No, not in the sense of Bell Labs. That's because this model is not the most efficient model available, and has thus mostly been phased out. Corporate R&D is much better integrated with actual product development than the standalone lab model captures. In the most successful cases we don't even really perceive it as an R&D lab because the entire company is doing R&D constantly, in a completely integrated manner.

Google is perhaps the clearest case of a company that has completely integrated R&D with its operations. There is an org called Google Research but IIRC it existed mostly for a trophy hire and isn't especially important: the bulk of actual research is/was done by product teams as an integrated part of their development process. There is no lab, yet at the same time, the lab is everywhere.

The second aspect is that it doesn't discuss the role of personality or personal visions of CEOs at all. Yet this is often critical to the decision to do R&D.

Why does Google research AI? It's not because it's an obvious, slam dunk move. Google has been doing ML research since the very start of the firm, but other search engine firms didn't. Why did Google research Google Glass? Or self driving cars? Google researches these things because Larry and Sergey thought it was cool. Page has even claimed in the past Google was founded specifically to do AI research (which isn't really right, but whatever).

What about SpaceX? Tesla? The Boring Company? Neuralink? These firms exist and do R&D because Elon Musk is a futurist. He doesn't do R&D for economic reasons, let alone for regulatory reasons. He does it because he wants to invent the future.

But this type of personality is rare. Our society is not kind to futurists. It doesn't really value them. They're seen as strange or dangerous; the story of inventing new technologies is usually a story of being attacked on all sides, by journalists or politicians or regulators or all of them at once. That's why most companies set up "innovation teams" - the exact opposite of the approach taken by the most innovative companies. They're little silos where people are taken and put in a corner, then told "go innovate". The non-technical CEO has no interest in the innovation team and likely never talks to them directly, let alone gives them direction or ideas. The team members know this and usually just mimic whatever trends they see around them (IoT, blockchain, AI, cloud, etc). Their projects are usually doomed from the start.

In the end, for research to be valued people with the power to deploy it must be excited by technology, not intimidated by it. And that isn't most corporate or government leaders today.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just finished reading Mitchell Waldrop's book The Dream Machines which is largely about J.C.R. Licklider and it has a lot of stories about the things Metcalfe is talking about during the 60's and 70's and into the 80's. It's a long, detailed book and I recommend it. After finishing the book it made me feel like progress has slowed tremendously. Look at the changes from 1960 to 1970 or from 1970 to 1980 and compare…

genuine question (asking because i have a biased perspective): why dont you consider advances in ai to be a major shift? in the past decade, there has been a rapid increase in capabilities in computer vision, language understanding, robotics, etc.

The technology has advanced a lot but what major changes have these advances in AI really made to the average person's life? I can't think of any that are anywhere near as dramatic as the invention of cars/air travel/the internet/smartphones.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#58
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having talked to a lot of old folks who worked there the tax breaks were a huge incentive too. Lowering the corporate tax rate since the 60s has meant that corporations no longer needed to invest in R&D, just pay accountants instead.

I think this is a very important point. Usually, taxes incentivize companies to spend their profit on making the company better - buy new machines, pay the workers more, invest in r&d. This way, they reduced their taxable profit by spending the money on themselves. The companies profited from getting better, the state (or society) profited from growth and innovation. Now with reduced taxes, but even more importantly…

I mean, giving money back to investors is the foundation on which the entire stock market is built on. The whole original point of investing in a public company was to get dividends. After all, if you're not entitled to a share of the profits, what's the point?

Of course this has all changed, with many companies not paying dividends. But saying that a company shouldn't return money to the investors through either buybacks or dividends is kind of ridiculous.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#59
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> other than the transistor and Unix and the princess telephone, what did we get for all that money? Bell Labs may not have been able to commercialize all of its discoveries, but humanity certainly got a lot more than Unix and the transistor. Quote [1]: "Researchers working at Bell Labs are credited with the development of radio astronomy, the transistor, the laser, the photovoltaic cell, the charge-coupled device (C…

> Bell Labs may not have been able to commercialize all of its discoveries, but humanity certainly got a lot more than Unix and the transistor. This point illustrates that human benefits and profit do not always align. If we want to focus more on making things that benefit humanity, we have change our system that runs off of profit.

I can't say I follow that logic.

It's true that human benefits and profit don't always align at all points of contact. They do align at some.

Hence I don't think it's true that for-profit systems that are not focused on "making things that benefit humanity" do not actually benefit humanity. Bell Labs clearly has, even though it has had a concomitant commercial objective.

Conversely, it is also not true that not-for-profit systems necessarily produce human benefits -- sure, they can, but not always.

I worked in an university applied research setting for close to a decade before joining industry. I can tell you the incentives and pressures to produce something that "works in practice" and is "commercializable" (whether it is actually done or not) is much greater in industry. Not-for-profit environments are better for long-range explorations with high failure rates and uncertain outcomes, i.e. basic research. For-profit environments are better at the discipline of producing applied knowledge (whether it is actually applied or not).

That said, Germany has a hybrid model called the Fraunhofer model (Fraunhofer Societies do applied research and is 70% funded by industry/government) which produced the MP3 standard. So there are alternatives. But I'm not convinced the industrial R&D model is fatally flawed.

Re: The rise and fall of the industrial R&D lab

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My response has some holes in it, but my view there is that profit/value has a pretty good feedback mechanism that social good doesn't. If you are a normal business, your customers basically give you a mandate to continue, maybe even grow. It may be a substandard metric to control for with regards to society, but at least it is a control system. The mechanics of social benefit feel a lot more complicated, I don't rea…

This will be a bit poorly thought out, but the response goes like this: why invest in corporate R&D with uncertain returns when you can invest in index funds with guaranteed return? The stock market is supported by ample goverment intervention, the rest of society not at all. Just consider the major stock market indices and compare that with continuing unemployment claims. Now you have a feedback mechanism that suppo…

> The stock market is supported by ample goverment intervention, the rest of society not at all.

Mind clarifying this with specifics?

Post reply on HN