We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

I'd love to see a multi-currency valuation of the S&P 500 over the next few years.

Part of the issue of saying the Market is "up" is that we keep changing the size of the unit.

Is the market worth more now in Yen, Indian Rupees etc? Or are people just willing to part with more USD (that asset specifically) for the underlying asset (the stock)?

The problem I have with economics after reading Debt: The 5000 years by David Graeber[0] (solid read, btw) is that the field was founded on some fundamentally flawed assumptions about its own history. The biggest one being that there's no evidence that a barter economy preceded a cash economy. We've all been taught that this was the case when there's no evidence it was true and there are a lot of unexplained problems with the idea of barter economies (i.e. how were people able to trade items of equitable value regularly, mutual goods exchange mismatch, etc.)

In our lifetimes, economists largely balked at the idea that the housing market could collapse, and then boom, 2008 happens.

I don't necessarily think that the entire field of study is bunk, but our capitalist society tends to prop them up like oracles without much scrutiny because they're the experts, and it's hard to provide a counterweight against that expertise, especially when their philosophy is used to create the vast wealth inequality we see today.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

I think we've reached the point where politicians shouldn't pretend that they want to prevent recessions.

It's like with day trading: once you realize that volatility is all that matters, it explains why key players are in favor of recessions and even actively work to cause them.

Some of the biggest fortunes in history started when someone had a little extra money to buy undervalued revenue streams when the economy was down.

So yes, there will be a recession, but it won't be triggered by fundamentals. It will be due to things like politicians politicizing mask wearing. And killing the financial regulations that smooth out economic highs and lows. And removing the social safety nets that help people get back on their feet again by avoiding long-term unemployment.

This basically all comes down to spite. The powers that be can't stand that FDR instituted the New Deal, starting with the Glass-Steagall Act in 1933, resulting in almost 70 years of relatively stable economic growth. So they repealed it in 1999 with the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act. That along with telecom deregulation and countless other things put us back on 10 year boom-bust cycles so that the elite could amass fortunes again.

We've already had the dot bomb, housing bubble pop and now the looming COVID-19 recession (caused by the Trump administration's hands-off approach to governing) in just the 20 years since I graduated college. This is so not the future I signed up for. My finance friends think it's great. But it's pretty much the worst possible outcome for makers. Which is why I consider the 2000s and 2010s to be lost decades, with another one looming.

> There's no credit given to economists for the recessions or depressions avoided.

I don't think we have avoided any recessions, ever, based on the advice of economists. They just aren't that good at forecasting. They don't even agree on the policy that is appropriate to fight recessions when we know there is one.

The "grandstanding" against economists in this thread is entirely justified.

Imagine if we could control the weather. Weatherman forecasts a hurricane, so weather control does what they can to get rid of it.

Economics is like that. Economists predict horrible downturn. Economic policy makers do what they can to avoid or lessen its impact.

For example, economists predicted that Boeing (among others) was going to need a massive bailout to survive. The Fed purchased a ton of corporate bonds with printed money to juice the bond market and allow Boeing and others to refinance their debt. Do we blame the weatherman for being wrong when steps were taken to change the forecast?