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We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

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Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#91

Post by coliveira »

the-dude wrote: post #72
Afforess wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. [citation needed] > I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? All the stock market gains are from big tech. Any other markets are flat or down. ( https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=ytd )

The stock market gains are because TINA ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_is_no_alternative ). It doesn't really matter that it is big tech, if the ROI would have been highest in Agri, it would be those stocks.

Exactly. The Fed has pumped trillions of dollars in an economy that is stuck, nothing new is being done except for tech. No wonder this money has to flow into tech stocks, and I tell you that it won't stop until something changes in the economic scenario, or the Fed for some reason decides to stop its super-easy-money policy.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#92

Post by TheCowboy »

The grandstanding against economists is disappointing.

Let's say you were driving at night with someone in the country, and because they either knew the road or could see farther ahead they said, "There's a boulder in a road ahead, we're likely going to hit it if you don't slow down and turn to avoid it."

And you do slow down and it allows you to turn to avoid a crash. How do you respond? Mock them for always being wrong about predicting a crash?

People mistake warnings about possible recessions, which have a probability attached, with forecasting an inevitable doomsday recession. There's no credit given to economists for the recessions or depressions avoided.

Often the warnings are about the risk of a recession with no intervention, and in an overwhelming majority of cases there is some action taken in fiscal and monetary policy to soften the blow or avoid the worst outcomes.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#93

Post by icedchai »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #73
icedchai wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're pointing out the obvious. Do you think tons of people are going to start dining out again? Going to gyms? Going to the movies? Large parts of the economy will be soft for years. Much of it will never come back due to semi-permanent shifts in behavior.

I do. In many areas people are already doing those things.

But how many? Probably not the same percentage is before COVID. There will, of course, be activity. It just won't be the same as before.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#94

Post by skybrian »

Afforess wrote: post #24
Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. [citation needed] > I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? All the stock market gains are from big tech. Any other markets are flat or down. ( https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=ytd )

Theoretically, predicting what the economy will do depends on also predicting most other major events. For example, to know in advance how the economy would do in 2020, you would have had to predict the pandemic. You also need to predict wars, natural disasters, the weather (snowstorms affect the economy), elections, and which new laws will pass for things like stimulus bills.

Sure, sometimes it averages out. But often it's the opposite, more like catastrophic cancellation. The outcome of a close election is inherently unpredictable because large opposing forces mostly cancel out.

It's odd how, whenever we talk about what will happen next year, we forget how we were blindsided this year.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#95

Post by pm90 »

makomk wrote: post #88
pm90 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that a reasonable comment such as this one is being downvoted just shows how much people want to avoid facing the reality of the situation before us. Long term damage has been done to the economy and society by the combination of a pandemic and the haphazard response (if you can call it that) by a corrupt and inept POTUS.

I know the American press has been pushing hard on the idea that the US is uniquely failing to deal with this and it's all Trump's fault because it's an election year and that's the most effective tool they have, but that doesn't make it true. In particular, things are heading in a really worrying direction throughout Europe right now, with countries that already saw overflowing hospitals and much bigger drops in GDP…

This is false and a garbage perspective.

The US is objectively doing far worse than any other nation going by infection numbers and death tolls alone. I can’t imagine how a reasonable person can believe that this is anything but a disaster of epic proportions.

Second waves were always a possibility and they will almost certainly happen without a significant testing and tracing infrastructure. Just because EU has not been perfect doesn’t mean it’s comparable to the disaster we have in the US. 180k official deaths as of writing.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#96

Post by Mediterraneo10 »

icedchai wrote: post #46
Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

They're pointing out the obvious. Do you think tons of people are going to start dining out again? Going to gyms? Going to the movies? Large parts of the economy will be soft for years. Much of it will never come back due to semi-permanent shifts in behavior.

> Do you think tons of people are going to start dining out again? Going to gyms? Going to the movies?

When the first lockdowns ended in Europe, people started to do just that. Restaurants in many countries are like normal, gyms that I walk past on the street look about as full as they have ever been. I have spent two months of this summer traveling around, and I found some tourist destinations crowded with people who had come all the way across Europe to get there, including a lot of elderly pensioners who one would imagine would be the most at-risk group. If there wasn’t uncertainty about flight cancellations, even more people would have taken their holidays abroad this summer regardless of the virus.

Because of the high case numbers in the USA and the sheer uncertainty about the prevalence of the virus and public health measures’ effectiveness due to political indecision, I understand that a lot of Americans are panicked and truly afraid of going back to normal for the moment. But I suspect that with time, there will simply be a COVID fatigue and many of these same worried people are eventually going to go back to their same old routine.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#97

Post by sfblah »

TheCowboy wrote: post #92

The grandstanding against economists is disappointing. Let's say you were driving at night with someone in the country, and because they either knew the road or could see farther ahead they said, "There's a boulder in a road ahead, we're likely going to hit it if you don't slow down and turn to avoid it." And you do slow down and it allows you to turn to avoid a crash. How do you respond? Mock them for always being w…

This is a very reasonable comment. Social sciences are frustratingly imprecise. But, understanding the history of various scenarios is useful. And, it can result in useful policy changes which avoid the worst, as you mentioned.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#98

Post by duncanawoods »

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

I liked a quote I cannot find that referred to any study that has "schools of thought", like economics, as not studying reality but tribes at war seeking changes / power for ideological ends.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#99

Post by munificent »

ipnon wrote: post #60
glouwbug wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering the unemployment rate, yes. Considering the stock market, no.

It seems like we have 2 economies now. One that works, and one that doesn't. The one that works seems to be much more exclusive.

As of 2013, the top 1% of households owned 38% of stock market wealth. The top 10% own 81% of stock wealth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#100

Post by toinetoine »

just-juan-post wrote: post #66
Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

I would suggest you pay attention to the economic stories and not the human interest stories when it comes to this virus. Did you know that 50% of San Fransisco's stores have closed? Half. HALF. https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Half-of-all-San-Fran... Did you know 250,000 evictions are looming in Las Vegas alone? https://www.ktnv.com/news/coronavirus/las-vegas-could-face-e... These are very real threats - not…

Las Vegas, a town where the majority people are employed in the hospitality/leisure industry (casinos, restaurants, convention prep, etc.)

SF where a huge amount of the residents have left the city since a majority of the white collar employees are WFH for the foreseeable future.

Not sure how you can take these places and extrapolate for the economic health of the entire country...

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