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We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

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Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#81

Post by TheCowboy »

hirundo wrote: post #50
Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. That's not fair. Paul Krugman has predicted seven of the last three recessions.

There was a study comparing the accuracy of predictions made by pundits, and Krugman came out as one of the best.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#82

Post by nradov »

mschuster91 wrote: post #54
uoflcards22 wrote: post #16

I trust this about as much as I trust my horoscope. There is a reason economists are scolded left and right, and it's because of ludicrous claims like this.

> There is a reason economists are scolded left and right, and it's because of ludicrous claims like this. Ludicrous? Not at all. With evidence of people re-infecting themselves with different strains of coronavirus appearing ( https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-reinfections-confirmed-in-... ), we are looking at years of dealing with a deadly pandemic - which means that anything regarding travel and major events is ou…

Reinfections aren't a serious concern. Symptoms tend to be much less severe the second time due to the actions of immune system memory cells. SARS-CoV-2 is just like every other coronavirus in that regard. For example see the natural history of the OC43 coronavirus.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#83

Post by mschuster91 »

nradov wrote: post #82
mschuster91 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is a reason economists are scolded left and right, and it's because of ludicrous claims like this. Ludicrous? Not at all. With evidence of people re-infecting themselves with different strains of coronavirus appearing ( https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-reinfections-confirmed-in-... ), we are looking at years of dealing with a deadly pandemic - which means that anything regarding travel and major events is ou…

Reinfections aren't a serious concern. Symptoms tend to be much less severe the second time due to the actions of immune system memory cells. SARS-CoV-2 is just like every other coronavirus in that regard. For example see the natural history of the OC43 coronavirus.

> Reinfections aren't a serious concern

They are, because reinfected people can infect people that have not had corona before and it makes vaccine success rates lower (similar to the seasonal flu).

In the essence it will lead to yet another attempt of "herd immunity" and a shitload of deaths.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#84

Post by x86_64Ubuntu »

ipnon wrote: post #60
glouwbug wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering the unemployment rate, yes. Considering the stock market, no.

It seems like we have 2 economies now. One that works, and one that doesn't. The one that works seems to be much more exclusive.

It's not so much 2 economies as it's that we injected 2-4 Trillion dollars into the stock market to prop it up.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#85

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

mschuster91 wrote: post #83
nradov wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reinfections aren't a serious concern. Symptoms tend to be much less severe the second time due to the actions of immune system memory cells. SARS-CoV-2 is just like every other coronavirus in that regard. For example see the natural history of the OC43 coronavirus.

> Reinfections aren't a serious concern They are, because reinfected people can infect people that have not had corona before and it makes vaccine success rates lower (similar to the seasonal flu). In the essence it will lead to yet another attempt of "herd immunity" and a shitload of deaths.

Experts and health officials were already expecting vaccines to be only 50-75% effective, so this isn't new information.

That's what's so frustrating to me about the "herd immunity" discourse. Health officials have consistently said there's no way the disease is going to be eradicated, but because of the way it gets discussed, a lot of smart people have become convinced that the goal of a vaccine is to make sure nobody catches it.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#86

Post by x86_64Ubuntu »

daenz wrote: post #17
UncleOxidant wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Like in the 30s the government should step in and hire people. Companies can't do that in a recession/depression. However, the other side of Keynesian economics that's not as often cited is that during the good times the government saves up for the inevitable bad times - we haven't done that for a long time.

>Like in the 30s the government should step in and hire people What does the government usually hire people to do in this situation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_Valley_Authority

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#87

Post by Seasonwreckage »

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

I agree. If you check the consensus a fear years before the 2008 financial collapse, most economists were bullish.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#88

Post by makomk »

pm90 wrote: post #63
bmitc wrote: post #23

It won’t be just a year or two. This is going to have long term repercussions. Basically everyone from the age of 5 to 22 will have a year or two of missing education. We’re losing tons of immigrants and non-immigrant foreign workers, of the latter many of which are doctors or advanced degree holders. Many Chinese are simply leaving the U.S. on their own accord, even if they aren’t caught up in the travel bans or oth…

The fact that a reasonable comment such as this one is being downvoted just shows how much people want to avoid facing the reality of the situation before us. Long term damage has been done to the economy and society by the combination of a pandemic and the haphazard response (if you can call it that) by a corrupt and inept POTUS.

I know the American press has been pushing hard on the idea that the US is uniquely failing to deal with this and it's all Trump's fault because it's an election year and that's the most effective tool they have, but that doesn't make it true. In particular, things are heading in a really worrying direction throughout Europe right now, with countries that already saw overflowing hospitals and much bigger drops in GDP than the US the first time around experiencing rapid increases in cases again.

Spain is particularly alarming - they're now above the US in terms of new cases per capita over the last week, they suffered a much bigger decline in GDP and quite a lot of deaths the first time around, and it's doubtful if they can afford a second lockdown or there's the political will to carry one out - but countries throughout Europe seem to be heading in the same direction, just a little bit behind them. Not that you'd probably realise this from the US reporting. Countries are also much more limited in how respond to this economically due to the Eurozone, and the negotiations over loosening this have made US politics look frankly farsighted and empathathetic by comparison.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#89

Post by nonford150 »

icedchai wrote: post #46
Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

They're pointing out the obvious. Do you think tons of people are going to start dining out again? Going to gyms? Going to the movies? Large parts of the economy will be soft for years. Much of it will never come back due to semi-permanent shifts in behavior.

And maybe we'll start to realize our 'robust' economy was based on so many frivolous activities instead of durable manufacturing and private home ownership.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#90

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

EasyTiger_ wrote: post #68
Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

I’ve seen impending economic doom being pushed on HN since 2016

To be fair, the insanity of both the stock and bond markets started becoming really apparent around then.

Still hasn't gotten any more sane, unfortunately.

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