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We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

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Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#61

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

bmitc wrote: post #23

It won’t be just a year or two. This is going to have long term repercussions. Basically everyone from the age of 5 to 22 will have a year or two of missing education. We’re losing tons of immigrants and non-immigrant foreign workers, of the latter many of which are doctors or advanced degree holders. Many Chinese are simply leaving the U.S. on their own accord, even if they aren’t caught up in the travel bans or oth…

The question is how long the actual problem is going to last, not how long we'll see reverberations from it. We still see reverberations from the Cold War, but that doesn't mean it's wrong to say the Cold War ended in 1991.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#62

Post by mschuster91 »

bmitc wrote: post #23

It won’t be just a year or two. This is going to have long term repercussions. Basically everyone from the age of 5 to 22 will have a year or two of missing education. We’re losing tons of immigrants and non-immigrant foreign workers, of the latter many of which are doctors or advanced degree holders. Many Chinese are simply leaving the U.S. on their own accord, even if they aren’t caught up in the travel bans or oth…

> Basically everyone from the age of 5 to 22 will have a year or two of missing education.

This this this a thousand times. And it's not just the missing education - it is graduating into a recession that has really fucked up follow-up effects. The generation that graduated in 2008 ff has still not recovered from the wage cuts.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#63

Post by pm90 »

bmitc wrote: post #23

It won’t be just a year or two. This is going to have long term repercussions. Basically everyone from the age of 5 to 22 will have a year or two of missing education. We’re losing tons of immigrants and non-immigrant foreign workers, of the latter many of which are doctors or advanced degree holders. Many Chinese are simply leaving the U.S. on their own accord, even if they aren’t caught up in the travel bans or oth…

The fact that a reasonable comment such as this one is being downvoted just shows how much people want to avoid facing the reality of the situation before us. Long term damage has been done to the economy and society by the combination of a pandemic and the haphazard response (if you can call it that) by a corrupt and inept POTUS.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#64

Post by tylerhou »

Guzba wrote: post #41
Afforess wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. [citation needed] > I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? All the stock market gains are from big tech. Any other markets are flat or down. ( https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=ytd )

Quick Google search, nearly top result. Committing the sin of just reading the headline but man this is not hard to find evidence: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-28/economist... Or maybe? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/economists-are-bad-at-p... "All of the gains are from big tech". All of the gains are always from some companies and all of the losses are always from others. This is just how th…

(2013) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stock-market-gains-come-from-fe...

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#66

Post by just-juan-post »

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

I would suggest you pay attention to the economic stories and not the human interest stories when it comes to this virus.

Did you know that 50% of San Fransisco's stores have closed? Half. HALF. https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Half-of-all-San-Fran...

Did you know 250,000 evictions are looming in Las Vegas alone? https://www.ktnv.com/news/coronavirus/las-vegas-could-face-e...

These are very real threats - not some fun internet discussion about inflation or gold or bitcoin. Your poo-poo'ing of economists is very out of context in this case.

The evidence is right in front of your face and you can find it on Google News.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#67

Post by TheCowboy »

jmnicolas wrote: post #35

A recession that last years is called a depression. It's not like not saying the D word will avoid anything ...

Within the field of economics, depression is not a well-defined term. When phrasing survey questions it's ^not desirable to have the meaning of the question itself subject to variation if you want the responses to be useful.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#68

Post by EasyTiger_ »

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

I’ve seen impending economic doom being pushed on HN since 2016

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#69

Post by lotsofpulp »

ipnon wrote: post #60
glouwbug wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering the unemployment rate, yes. Considering the stock market, no.

It seems like we have 2 economies now. One that works, and one that doesn't. The one that works seems to be much more exclusive.

It's been that way for decades. Top two quintiles and deciles have been far outpacing the rest, who are basically flat or in decline. Last few years were a little bit better for them, but that came to an end of course.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#70

Post by joshuaheard »

We aren't "stuck" in a recession. It is entirely man-made. In the past, a recession was significant because it was a market indicator. Now, however, this recession is artificial, so it does not indicate any market defects.

I believe we will have a V-shaped recovery and we will get back to normal soon. In a market-based recession, the fear is how to get back to normal. In this artificial recession, there is no fear, we just end the lockdowns. The only issue is when.

It's like growing your lawn. If your lawn starts dying, and you don't know why, that is like a market-based recession. However, if you turn off the irrigation and the lawn starts dying, all you have to do is turn the irrigation back on.

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