We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say • Hacker News Board

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#31

Post by ffggvv » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:34 PM UTC

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

i agree. it would be interesting to see a historical version of this poll and see how accurate they’ve been in the past.

if economists were so great at predicting the economy they’d all be rich

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#32

Post by nordsieck » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:35 PM UTC

maccam912 wrote: post #21

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

When it's a survey of many economists I tend to put stock in what comes out. In this case if 80% say there is a 25% chance of a second dip, thats a much more informed opinion than I could ever have on the subject. I now know it isn't likely so don't plan my life around waiting for the second dip, but also don't be too surprised if we do see a second dip.

> When it's a survey of many economists I tend to put stock in what comes out. In this case if 80% say there is a 25% chance of a second dip, thats a much more informed opinion than I could ever have on the subject.

Who do you think has a higher chance of being right:

* macroeconomists when predicting the future of the economy

* fund managers when predicting the future of stocks

Just because people are smart or know a lot of things doesn't mean that that knowledge translates into useful ability.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#33

Post by ffggvv » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:35 PM UTC

always remember: social science isn’t science. no matter how bad they want it to be

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#34

Post by claydavisss » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:36 PM UTC

glouwbug wrote: post #28

hbosch wrote: post #19

Are we actually in a recession right now?

Considering the unemployment rate, yes. Considering the stock market, no.

Markets ride on a theme. The theme of this market is Jerome Powell holding the Elder Wand. So far this has held true, but at some point, it probably won't.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#35

Post by jmnicolas » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:36 PM UTC

A recession that last years is called a depression. It's not like not saying the D word will avoid anything ...

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#36

Post by just-juan-post » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:36 PM UTC

The fear is more destructive to the economy than the virus.

Every dumb "safety" measure that's put into place removes us further from normalcy. Every "wear a mask" social media post further spreads fear of the virus. The mainstream media using the same fear-mongering techniques they have for decades (surge/spike, young person dies, rare long term complications) creating public fear for viewership.

There are too many people profiting from Covid-19 and they have incentive to keep the fear flowing. If you want the economy back you need to get past the fear and ignore those who attempt to profit from it.

EDIT: Flagged huh? Yeah places like HN also profit from the fear and so do the "wear a mask!" social media posters that profit (in the form of upvotes and eyballs) from the virus. The flagging proves my point, sorry about the truth :-)

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#37

Post by senderista » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

blackflame7000 wrote: post #10

xxpor wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is essentially the reason behind Keynesian stimulus, isn't it? Something's gotta bootstrap the recovery.

It’s much easier to give a company back money they already earned in the form of a tax cut than it is to expect a business to create new revenue out of thin air.

And what do you expect them to do with that money?

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#38

Post by nradov » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

maccam912 wrote: post #21

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

When it's a survey of many economists I tend to put stock in what comes out. In this case if 80% say there is a 25% chance of a second dip, thats a much more informed opinion than I could ever have on the subject. I now know it isn't likely so don't plan my life around waiting for the second dip, but also don't be too surprised if we do see a second dip.

How accurate were those same economists with their previous predictions? Were they more accurate than random people off the street?

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#39

Post by School-Cotton » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:38 PM UTC

jug wrote: post #25

hbosch wrote: post #19

Are we actually in a recession right now?

Was just about to say this. My equity funds are back to ≈85% before pandemic on average. One of them is better than before it. And that is coming from a very highly valued market due for a correction for years.

Whether we’re in a recession is not determined by stock prices. There were recessions before the stock market was invented.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#40

Post by AznHisoka » Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 5:39 PM UTC

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

>> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future.

Well, it doesn't help that they don't have control over external factors. Like the Fed reducing interest rates to 0, and buying corporate bonds. Very hard to predict something when there's no free market where things just play out with no external influence.