I like the way " Is Bloom's "Two Sigma" phenomenon real? If so, what do we do about it? " is loaded. Touches on several "questions" in the vein of this article. One load is " why don't we know this with more certainty? " It's a useful thing to know. What is achievable? What's the bar? How good could education be, regardless of resources and other limitations. If true, that can be our 100% marker for instructional eff…
Patrick Collison's Questions
201–210 of 288 posts
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#202"Why are certain things getting so much more expensive?" That list is pretty much rank ordered by the amount of non-substitutable human labor involved per unit. Everything in red is a pretty universal need (health, education, child care, housing, food), while the blues are mostly wants. So we want medical care, but that requires a lot of labor, and each of those workers requires housing, but that's supply constrained…
Medical care and education have seen a massive torrent of government funding and regulation over the last 60 years, while the things that get cheaper live mostly in free markets.
I note textbook prices took a dive about the time book-sharing services became prevalent.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
So, in other words, your statement "a safety record matching or surpassing most modern projects" is something you made up. Bringing up the stadium in Qatar only further highlights that point: I remember that building project getting tons of press outlining how shockingly bad the safety record was compared to what should be expected.
Take some time to research safety and deaths in large construction projects happening today at the scale of bridging the Golden Gate back in the 1930s. E.g. Channel tunnel - 10 deaths, Panama Canal Expansion - 7, Three Gorges Dam - 100+, Gotthard Base Tunnel - 8, Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macau Bridge - 19, Istanbul Airport - 55. I'm not sure what statistics you are looking for, but construction isn't a no-risk profession eve…
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#204Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
> helping students specifically when they are stuck and need more personalized help. This is where most learning resources fall short of ideal - if you work on a problem without human guidance, you can often either work through it in whole and learn, or check out the solution if you get stuck, have a short "ah, of course!" moment and not learn much at all. A tutor can sort of "debug" through questions and targeted hi…
I learned basic algebra from an analog learning medium (a "choose your own adventure" style book) that attempted to diagnose and address misunderstandings and gaps.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
huh? there’s plenty of colleges to choose from and yet costs go up every year. to me it seems like a distortion caused by a Federal Gov that guarantees payment to universities in the form of federally backed student loans.
Education is now a Veblen good.
I disagree that it's ever been otherwise.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#207We might, we just dont know that we are building them. Assuming today's nice neighborhoods are the old ones, I would argue that they escaped a period of modernization. I think we look back at our recent creations and always think about how we can tear them down and rebuild. The neighborhoods that escape this cycle of "tear down and rebuild" and luckily slip into the status of "vintage charm" suddenly hold more caché and may even get protected status by their city or municipality.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#208Alex Tabarrok argues that this is largely do to Baumol cost disease [0]: "rise of salaries in jobs that have experienced no or low increase of labor productivity, in response to rising salaries in other jobs that have experienced higher labor productivity growth". He has a book about it [1]
This aligns well with Patrick's graph: healthcare, college, childcare are all labor intensive and have seen little to no productivity increase in the last 23 years.
The story for housing is different, though. We are consistently concentrating economic opportunity in the urban centers. However, through NIMBYism, we have made it very difficult to build new housing. The "surprising" result: very expensive housing. Relatedly, Matt Rognlie found out [2] that the increase in the capital share of income since 1970, as noticed by Piketty, can be mostly explained by the housing sector.
The solution to both, in my view, are related. We need to reduce barriers for labor movement. We can reduce labor cost by liberalizing immigration to the USA and by liberalizing (re-zoning) and incentivizing (via Land Value Taxation) housing production within the main US urban areas.
> Why do there seem to be more examples of rapidly-completed major projects in the past than the present?
My suspicion is institutional ossification in the USA. With time we accumulate rules / regulations / procedures that increase the complexity of the task at hand. Eventually, the marginal procedure increases complexity such that our competence is exceeded, making the task impossible.
I think the solution is related to his other question "How do you ensure an adequate replacement rate in systems that have no natural way to die?". We should have a way to replace these institutions. Market forces are a great way to do so for private endeavors, startups being the prime example. But for public institutions, it is less clear what could be the proper approach. If there was a way to have states compete for citizens in a non-violent way, that may help.
> Why don't we build nice neighborhoods any more?
I think it is a mixture of i) survivorship bias (as he suggests), ii) car-oriented development (as he suggests), and iii) the fact that attractive neighborhoods have an organic feel to them that only time can give. Thus, in the car-era we built new neighborhoods but they were car-oriented so they never aged into nice, walking neighborhoods. We are trying to rectify that with new walking-oriented developments, but they have a synthetic feel to them that will only go away with time.
> What's going on with infrastructure?
I would say this is a combination of the Baumol cost disease and the ossification of our institutions (both mentioned above).
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease
[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/46013009-why-are-the-pri...
[2] https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2015a_r...
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#209On the Chinese research question: Just wait a decade. In all likelihood, I am permanently departing academia in about a month. The underlying reason is structural -- neither our funding agency nor our institution is willing to yield on a fundamental sticking point that is causing all of our young researchers to leave. I am about to join them. There is literally no path forward. In the decade that I have watched my wo…
The obvious issue is whether you can think openly when you can get in trouble for it. Einstein was not a conformist. Could he have survived such an environment? Or would they beat him down, or would he leave? Consider Li Wenliang, who first noticed covid19, and was interviewed by the police, and investigated after his death for disrupting public order. OTOH the PRC have been very astute in adopting capitalism. If the…
On Slate Star Codex, there is an interesting article about this topic:
https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/10/23/kolmogorov-complicity-...
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#210Japan’s cleanliness, healthcare costs, etc