Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

Post by kentonv » Sat, Aug 22, 2020, 9:31 PM UTC

tobyjsullivan wrote: post #151

kentonv wrote: post #47

My pet theory (which is not intended to be taken too seriously) is that it is indeed a discarded light sail, and that light sail in particular was used to transport a Von Neumann probe which detached at some point after the object entered our solar system but before we first observed it. This detachment, in addition to leaving the sail tumbling, would have changed its trajectory, meaning our estimation of which direc…

> Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it. Are you sure it's a coincidence? Imagine you are an intergalactic species that advances yourself by invading other worlds and stealing the inhabitants' knowledge and technology. What would be the best time to invade? I would suggest waiting as long as possible in their te…

Post by kentonv » Sat, Aug 22, 2020, 9:40 PM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #150

kentonv wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once a civilization is capable of building Von Neumann probes, it would be silly for them not to do so. They are basically free, since they are self-replicating. Of course a civilization is going to want to control and harness as many resources as it possibly can. We may not be able to imagine what they'd want to build out of whole star systems, but I absolutely don't believe that civilization will ever run out of th…

That's self destructive behavior on a planetary scale. No species that has an instinct or culture to consume all available resources will survive long enough to do it on a galactic scale. Also, the math doesn't work out in the sense that if a species that had this instinct reached interstellar travel a million years ago the Milky Way galaxy would already have entirely been consumed. That's the Fermi Paradox in a nuts…

Post by edgyquant » Sat, Aug 22, 2020, 9:53 PM UTC

doytch wrote: post #144

edgyquant wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would this not be a good domain for image recognition?

If you’re trying to classify images as whether or not they contain something, you need a bunch of images that you already know don’t contain the thing (got it), and a bunch of images that you already know /do/ contain the thing. We lack the latter, so there’s nothing for the algorithm to learn based on.

Post by pavlov » Sat, Aug 22, 2020, 9:57 PM UTC

kentonv wrote: post #128

throwaway316943 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure that reasoning holds up. There’s no reason to believe that “mushy human emotional ideas” are not the norm. There’s no data to support that claim since humanity is the only example we have of intelligence. So for the sake of the argument I’m going to define alien intelligence as similar to human intelligence. I’d also inquire what the point of having a Von Neumann probe consume all of a system would be? I…

Once a civilization is capable of building Von Neumann probes, it would be silly for them not to do so. They are basically free, since they are self-replicating. Of course a civilization is going to want to control and harness as many resources as it possibly can. We may not be able to imagine what they'd want to build out of whole star systems, but I absolutely don't believe that civilization will ever run out of th…

Post by edgyquant » Sat, Aug 22, 2020, 10:15 PM UTC

sidcool wrote: post #82

I have a strong belief that we will establish first contact by 2040.