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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#781

Post by [deleted] »

jkrems wrote: post #643
arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

> They still have not come clean for their initial mask guidelines that was blatantly wrong. I'm not sure I follow here - what is missing on that front? They have explained why the mask recommendation changed and how they got to their initial recommendation. Not sure how much more they could do there.

[deleted]

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#782

Post by teachrdan »

eric_b wrote: post #414

Where I live gyms have been open for some time. There's been no outbreaks at fitness facilities thus far in my state. I have friends in various countries in Europe who also lift regularly and their fitness facilities have been open for months with no issues. As always, a dose of perspective is necessary.

Did you read the article? It stated that the "underground" gyms had people close together without wearing masks. (This can be understood to be due to prohibition, of course.)

Is that the case with the fitness centers in your state?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#783

Post by svnpenn »

eanzenberg wrote: post #729
svnpenn wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

EU has twice the population? Are you including Russia?

Do you not know how to do even the most cursory internet search?

> Population 746,419,440

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe

> Population 328,239,523

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#784

Post by Khaine »

2muchcoffeeman wrote: post #759
Khaine wrote: post #735

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but how many of those people would have died from the normal flu? I know this is a morbid topic, but it gets to a fundamental truth. How valuable is a human life? Is it worth significantly damaging the future of the young through economic depression and increased social isolation and mental illness to extend the life old old people by a year, 5 years? There is no easy solution. We can hibernate as much of the n…

> Sure, but how many of those people would have died from the normal flu? I’ve been comparing flu stats for Australia. 2019 a BAD flu season was over 400 deaths. A NORMAL season is roughly 150 deaths. I think 146 in 2018. 2020 has 36 deaths. Melbourne deaths peaked at 25 for a single day. The current outbreak in VIC totally blows past the flu death rate for the entire country. Total COVID deaths in Australia (450) al…

Look, I actually agree with what the actions the Australian Government have taken. I do think its important to play devils advocate, to properly evaluate the decisions that are being made.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#785

Post by tessierashpool »

dasudasu wrote: post #711
seizethecheese wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to some vulnerable person (probably your parents or a school teacher) with a 1 in 10 chance of death. This is wrong and misleading. You're quoting the average fatality rate for "healthy" people, but the distribution doesn't look like that at all. Then, you cherrypick 10% out of now…

True, but that's not as if death was the only bad outcome. Not that we can even pretend to know the long-term effects yet, but anecdotally it seems that some people are already experiencing them, which include lung scarring and neurological symptoms.

yep. many people have been sick since March, but saving lives is the priority, so we know almost nothing about "long-haulers." plus the hospitalization rate is a lot higher than the death rate, and hospitalization often means ICU for a month plus.

a realistic calculation of risk should be looking at your risk of dying, your risk of serious illness, your risk of permanent illness and/or long-term effects, _and_ your risk of medical bankruptcy. one dude got a bill for a million dollars when he finally was able to leave the ICU.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#786

Post by vondur »

polote wrote: post #689
vondur wrote: post #678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been reading how the cases in France are rising enough where the government is considering a second lockdown.

Not yet, for now they have just made the mask mandotary almost everywhere. People will not accept a second lockdown

I wonder how well people would respond to another lockdown. As you can see here in the US people are not taking it well. It also appears that Covid cases are spiking in Spain and Germany as well as France. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#787

Post by notassigned »

p1necone wrote: post #779
notassigned wrote: post #778

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think about Sweden, then? They seem to be done with this with no lockdown and a small amount of death (accounting for old people who would have died this year anyway, statistically)

They've done significantly worse than other countries in the same region of the world that did have lockdowns. What do you think you're accomplishing by posting easily debunked misinformation?

>What do you think you're accomplishing by posting easily debunked misinformation?

The data on Sweden is clear, they are down to near zero covid deaths per day in a country of over 10 million people. Can't see how that can be debunked.

And how are they significantly worse? They are living normal lives.

Also, if something is 'easily debunked' then just do it.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#788

Post by treeman79 »

mandeepj wrote: post #744
cm2187 wrote: post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that clear that a lockdown helps. NY closed the earliest in the US but was the hardest hit nevertheless. It has now mostly reopened and cases aren't going up. Chances are we may have reached herd immunity there. I have seen recently that serology tests in Italy have shown the same outcome for people who were locked down than essential workers who were not locked down (and mortality stats in the UK told a sim…

> WHO does not support lockdowns. WHO is corrupt, and has been politicized. They were also against masks at the beginning, and also said COVID does not transmit from human to human.

Saw the movie clue a couple months ago. It shocked me how bad WHO reputation was back then. 1985.

Professor Plum works for the WHO. —-

Miss Scarlet : I hardly think it will enhance your reputation at the U.N. Professor Plum, if it's revealed that you have been implicated not only in adultery with one of your patients, but in her death and the deaths of five other people.

Professor Plum : You don't know what kind of people they have at the U.N., I might go up in their estimation.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#789

Post by x2f10 »

helaoban wrote: post #636
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

Spoken like somebody with no skin in the game. Go preach this nonsense to small business owners that have had their livelihoods taken from them and see how long you can keep your head above the parapet. > Support temporary benefits to your fellow citizens. What benefits? Support how? Prayers? Support that small business in your community with your wallet. > Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance…

>Spoken like somebody with no skin in the game.

I am empathetic to the situation but that's a limited view on "skin". Those who are or have loved ones (colleagues, friends, etc) in the high risk categories also have skin in the game. The 783,000 COVID-19 deaths have permanently affected tens of millions of lives.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#790

Post by FabHK »

mandeepj wrote: post #744
cm2187 wrote: post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that clear that a lockdown helps. NY closed the earliest in the US but was the hardest hit nevertheless. It has now mostly reopened and cases aren't going up. Chances are we may have reached herd immunity there. I have seen recently that serology tests in Italy have shown the same outcome for people who were locked down than essential workers who were not locked down (and mortality stats in the UK told a sim…

> WHO does not support lockdowns. WHO is corrupt, and has been politicized. They were also against masks at the beginning, and also said COVID does not transmit from human to human.

> [WHO] said COVID does not transmit from human to human.

Can you put that canard to rest? On January 14th (when virtually nothing was known about this yet), the WHO tweeted (my highlights):

> Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus

So, note:

a) this was very early days, and the understanding was in flux.

b) the WHO didn't itself claim anything about the virus and its transmission, but it reported on a study. The WHO doesn't conduct their own studies. The WHO reports and aggregates information from the member states. Here, these were investigation reports from the Chinese authorities, and that's what they said at the time.

c) these were preliminary studies, not a final conclusion.

d) the claim wasn't that there is no transmission, but that at the time no clear evidence for it had been found.

The tweet was maybe ill-advised, and it didn't age well, but it is by no means indicative of corruption.

That is not to say that the WHO doesn't have major problems. But this tweet is not one of them.

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