Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition • Hacker News Board

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#701

Post by helaoban » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:24 PM UTC

rocha wrote: post #683

helaoban wrote: post #636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spoken like somebody with no skin in the game. Go preach this nonsense to small business owners that have had their livelihoods taken from them and see how long you can keep your head above the parapet. > Support temporary benefits to your fellow citizens. What benefits? Support how? Prayers? Support that small business in your community with your wallet. > Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance…

> Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death. >> Where's the data to back up any close to an assertion like this? Latest IFR estimates are between 0.5% and 1.0% (1 in 200 to 1 in 100). https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating...

An almost meaningless number when not controlled for age, ethnicity, general health etc.

I don't understand how this number can be reasonably used to say anything about basically anything.

From the document you site:

  > Many such serological surveys are currently being
  > undertaken worldwide [10], and some have thus far 
  > suggested substantial under-ascertainment of cases, with estimates of IFR converging at approximately 0.5 - 1% [10-12].

But if we follow reference 12, we get the following IFR study from Stockholm[1]:

  > Results:

  > Age 0–69 Population %: 88.3, IFR: 0.09%
  > Age 70+, Population %: 11.7, IFR: 4.29%

Now, which number applies to the vast majority of us? And this is not even controlled for anything but age.

People, come on.

1. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/53c0dc391b...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#702

Post by rootusrootus » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:25 PM UTC

divbzero wrote: post #639

arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

Europe can be lax now precisely because it was strict early enough and long enough to bring prevalence down to a safer level.

I think that is a mistake. Exponential math doesn't fail to work just because you delay it for a while. Everyone started with just one case.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#703

Post by curryst » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:25 PM UTC

JackFr wrote: post #462

henriquez wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An extension of this is the notion of emergency authorities and people’s perception of the weight they carry. An emergency is an emergent situation, which must be new, evolving, and carry the risk of serious harm. Emergency orders are based upon the idea that executive authority must be wielded to quickly mitigate an emergency situation. But a key attribute of an emergency (by definition) is “new” - if emergency powe…

On of the problems with the lockdown orders was that to a large extent they were arbitrary with respect to what was essential and open ended with respect to time. Such a prohibition could be effective if the public trusted the people or process which led to the lock downs, but the people showed themselves scarcely worthy of our trust and there really was no process. "We believe in science" is a fine mantra, though it…

I think some of the "essential" businesses were more essential to people maintaining their sanity than essential for people to survive. It was a "bread and circuses" play. Liquor stores and dispensaries are on that list; if you're going to lock everyone down for an extended period of time, they're going to get bored. Bored people get unhappy, and unrest increases. Letting people have their booze and weed increases the amount of time they can cope with the cabin fever (although there are certainly downsides).

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#704

Post by Rapzid » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:29 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #657

johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

How is this different from the TSA for protecting you from terrorists? Or how is this different from the Internet and freedom of speech censorship for protecting you from child porn. Reality Check: It's not different. People should stop from thinking they have a higher moral ground. Nobody does. On the other hand, on a free society, you should not be able to strip people from their freedom, regardless. People should…

I'm super glad we don't live in that lawless society TBH! One of the best features of government is, IMHO, that we can use it to all agree to abide by having certain "freedoms" inhibited for the greater good where we otherwise wouldn't be able to. Rule of law was a fantastic invention..

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#705

Post by rootusrootus » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

djsumdog wrote: post #662

arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

> They still have not come clean for their initial mask guidelines that was blatantly wrong I don't think they were. There is a 2013 study that shows cloth masks would be ineffective at preventing spread of respiratory illnesses, and posts by UIC Health early on that said they weren't necessary (which they've added a notice to). I wrote about this here: https://battlepenguin.com/politics/secondary-effects/#masks-...…

> Masks have really torn everyone apart

No. No, no no. Masks have torn nobody apart. They could have brought us together. One segment of the population embraced politics and decided that masks was the last straw among all of the rules they otherwise accept in their lives, and decided to turn it into a public statement. These people are the ones that have torn everyone apart and ripped up the social contract.

The rest of us are just quietly sucking it up and doing what little we can to improve outcomes for all of society.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#706

Post by cm2187 » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

svnpenn wrote: post #654

arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

It's not that clear that a lockdown helps. NY closed the earliest in the US but was the hardest hit nevertheless. It has now mostly reopened and cases aren't going up. Chances are we may have reached herd immunity there.

I have seen recently that serology tests in Italy have shown the same outcome for people who were locked down than essential workers who were not locked down (and mortality stats in the UK told a similar story a couple of months ago).

Also the evolution of deaths in Sweden followed the same shape and timing than all the other european countries who locked down, suggesting the peak had more to do with the natural evolution of the infection than as a result of a lockdown.

And as far as I know, the WHO does not support lockdowns.

I suppose things like how well care homes were protected probably mattered a lot more.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#707

Post by aflag » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:31 PM UTC

liability wrote: post #558

aflag wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if I follow your point? Are you saying this is less of a tragety because these people lived 50 years longer?

Yes, it is less of a tragedy when an old person dies. Old people have less of their life to lose and have less remaining potential to contribute to society. The death of children is always more tragic than the death of elderly people. This isn't a perspective exclusive to young people either. Last year my grandfather died and my cousin had a miscarriage. My grandmother was far more distraught over the latter because…

It may be a cultural thing too. It is a lot faster to produce young unqualified people than a really senior person. We are losing minds like John Conway.

Anyway, I'd say my grandfather and cousin deaths (non-covid related) had about the same impact on me. Dying is the tragedy of being alive, I suppose.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#708

Post by djsumdog » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:32 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #699

djsumdog wrote: post #666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It varied and we're seeing more cases in the EU coming out of the lockdown. Hell, NZ went for total elimination and they got more cases (possibly due to freight?) When this is over, I bet the entire planet will have rates similar to Sweden. My theory is lockdowns delay the inevitable. We should protect the most at risk (95% of fatalities in the US are ages 55+), but we also need to realize there is no way to really s…

> there is no way to really stop a virus in circulation Sure there is, a vaccine.

It takes 5 to 10 years to create a safe and effective vaccine. Look to the 1970s and Swing Flu to see an example of a failed vaccine. It is absolutely insane that anyone is seriously considering we can make a safe vaccine for this in less than a year.

Pharmaceutical companies have never made a successful vaccines for coronaviruses before. I've heard the argument, "Well we have more people working on it." If you hire nine women, you can't make a baby in a month. There is no way, no matter how much money you throw at it, to safely do 5~10 years worth of testing in less than a year.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#709

Post by u801e » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

kbenson wrote: post #567

donor20 wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you are the one not listening. In EVERY other country you can buy masks, and they were strongly encouraged, that prevented YOU from getting sick. South Koreas KF94 masks come to mind, very good coverage and fit (3 parts including one under chin). And despite the lies basically posted by you and plenty of others including health authorities (don't wear masks if you are "healthy", masks can't protect you from covid…

> I think health professionals lost a megaton of credibility in claiming masks don't help, to not wear masks, or that masks can only help reduce transmission not infection. Other countries went all out on masks - with great results. I think for the most part health professionals answered specific questions about specific types of situations or types of transmission, and the media runs with overly broad statements whe…

> There are many inputs that go into something as simple as a recommendation of "should the general public wear masks", including "are there enough masks for health professionals currently"

When there was a toilet paper shortage, businesses were still able to get their supplies since they used a different supply chain compared to the end consumer. I'm surprised that this isn't the same case with PPE.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#710

Post by WD-42 » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:34 PM UTC

seizethecheese wrote: post #617

johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

> congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to some vulnerable person (probably your parents or a school teacher) with a 1 in 10 chance of death. This is wrong and misleading. You're quoting the average fatality rate for "healthy" people, but the distribution doesn't look like that at all. Then, you cherrypick 10% out of now…

That’s still whole numbers for anyone over 60, and significant numbers still for anyone below it.

Have you ever seriously contemplated death? If you have, those numbers don’t seem very good, not at all.

Not to mention these are stats for DEATH. Meaning these are the worst case scenario. Dead. The chances of getting seriously ill, like major suffering, are much higher. Would you want to experience that? Would you wish that on others in your community?

Suck it up and do some pushups for gods sake.