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Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

news.airbnb.com

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Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#71

Post by subsubzero »

asdff wrote: post #52
mancerayder wrote: post #17

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

Another dark pattern is hiding the price until you are nearly booking the place. Most people want a cheap stay close to where they need to be, so they look on the prices on the map, which fail to include fees which can be all over the place depending on the host.

And the fees can be extreme. I recently tried to book a place before covid and the cleaning fees etc ended up being $400. I feel like this is a scheme landlords on airbnb are perpetrating which are similar to what used to go down on ebay years ago.

For ebay they did not take a cut of the shipping cost(typically their cut was around 10% of the final sale of an item) so sellers would list items at rock bottom prices but with shipping like 5x of what it should be so they could receive a maximum amount of money. I assume airbnb does not take a cut of cleaning costs?

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#72

Post by eof »

mancerayder wrote: post #69
anm89 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really like Airbnb as a company but they are the only one out of the marketplace based unicorns who's unit economics seem really solid to me. I personally would not be against them.

Even in the world of COVID and restricted air travel? I mean there are lots of city people escaping .. but how likely will that continue as cabins and beachhomes become too cold.

Do you expect this to last for years/decades? I think it’s fair to say that the current climate is priced in.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#73

Post by mancerayder »

Here's another bear argument: the political tide is turning against them.

Lisbon and New York are just some of the cities that have made AirBNB more difficult. New York has made even a listing advertisement illegal if it's for a short-term (under 30 days) timeframe. Paris forced registrations and taxing some years back, which slashes the number of properties available. Politicians in Brooklyn constantly evoked AirBNB these past few years in gentrifying neighborhoods. Barcelona has had protests.

In an era of affordable housing becoming an issue, someone profiting off of short term sublets at the expense of longer-term residents (who have to deal with noise issues in addition to more scarcity of housing) will be targeted politically. Will COVID and the move from the cities offset that?

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#74

Post by subsubzero »

fourstar wrote: post #65
mancerayder wrote: post #17

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

Short the company -- not the stock. 1. Don't buy the stock. 2. Don't use the platform. 3. Tell others to do the same.

Also, for places you do like, alot of them can be booked without airbnb and they will charge you less as they are not being gouged 30% by airbnb. I always grab business cards/contact info for places I stay at that I really like on airbnb and if I plan on going back I skirt airbnb and deal directly with the houses owner/manager. More money to the owner, less to airbnb and cheaper for you, win all the way around.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#75

Post by mancerayder »

mrkramer wrote: post #57
analyst74 wrote: post #9

I heard that Airbnb's business is actually stronger in US and Europe now than pre-pandemic, as tourism shifts towards local and people shy away from hotels. On the other hand, they're still in money saving mode, reducing ad spending and laying people off. Anyone know what is going on?

Local tourism is fine but international is not. Airline travel is not fully functional yet.

Right. How can AirBNB be hopping with airlines down 70-80 percent?

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#76

Post by mancerayder »

DamnYuppie wrote: post #4

Am I the only one who is super eager for them to go public so that I can short them?

We wrote similar comments at almost the same time. Yes and Yes.

They're a pretty shady experience as a guest, so on a personal level I'm upset (per other comment). There's a pandemic and economic catastrophe, so there's a good bear argument that adds to the already bear argument that cities around the world are cracking down on AirBNB rentals because they're easy political targets.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#77

Post by DamnYuppie »

miketery wrote: post #36
mancerayder wrote: post #17

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

You shouldn't short a stock on the basis of you not liking it or based on X bad business practices. You should only short it if you believe that the market will perceive it as over valued, and the valuation will go down. That's it.

If there is enough people who do or don't like something that can drive large swings in a stocks price regardless the fundamentals. A few very recent examples would be TSLA and BYND.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#78

Post by DamnYuppie »

MarkMc wrote: post #26
DamnYuppie wrote: post #4

Am I the only one who is super eager for them to go public so that I can short them?

I'm super eager for the opposite reason: I want to go long. In 3 years people's travel habits will mostly be back to normal, and AirBnb has a very strong competitive moat

I don't believe they have a strong competitive moat at all. They don't own the properties they rent, there are a myriad of other services that the exact same properties can list on. They have market/mind share but that can easily wane.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#79

Post by mancerayder »

vechagup wrote: post #13
DamnYuppie wrote: post #4

Am I the only one who is super eager for them to go public so that I can short them?

It seems highly likely that you are not, and therefore that this trade is much less of an obvious win than you appear to assume.

What do you mean? If lots of people short a stock, the crowdedness are borrow costs, or a short squeeze if things go south (or should I say north).

It's a see-saw here. The lower it goes the lower it will go.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#80

Post by mancerayder »

eof wrote: post #72
mancerayder wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even in the world of COVID and restricted air travel? I mean there are lots of city people escaping .. but how likely will that continue as cabins and beachhomes become too cold.

Do you expect this to last for years/decades? I think it’s fair to say that the current climate is priced in.

Priced into what? Stock prices?

Branson had to dig into his purses to bail out Virgin recently. Layoffs are periodically occurring in the air travel world. No one knows precisely when it ends.

What does "priced in" mean? Some sort of perfect market pricing thesis manifesting or am I reading into it?

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