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Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

news.airbnb.com

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Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's their moat?

The main one to me is network effect. Hosts will join the platform because there are renters there, renters will join because there are hosts.

You should also be a chef because people will never stop eating.

This is a train that went away a long time ago. AirBNB is slowing down and becoming the yellow pages/TripAdvisor of the internet (that is very clear in terms of the commodification of the review process).

It doesn’t mean they will fail, however you can’t just state they will grow forever.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#62
post #25

I heard that Airbnb's business is actually stronger in US and Europe now than pre-pandemic, as tourism shifts towards local and people shy away from hotels. On the other hand, they're still in money saving mode, reducing ad spending and laying people off. Anyone know what is going on?

I live in a very touristic neighborhood in Lisbon and several of the apartments in my building are rented full time through AirBnB & friends and it's definitely still a lot quieter than pre-covid, and we're in August when there should be tourists everywhere. It's only one datapoint of course but from this very limited perspective it seems very hard for me to believe that their business would be stronger now than pre-…

Personally I’d love to spend some time in Lisbon but as an American I’m pretty sure I (rightly) wouldn’t be allowed in your country. So travel restrictions are probably the issue there

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#63

I heard that Airbnb's business is actually stronger in US and Europe now than pre-pandemic, as tourism shifts towards local and people shy away from hotels. On the other hand, they're still in money saving mode, reducing ad spending and laying people off. Anyone know what is going on?

I moved back to Rome from Milan because I knew that without tourism (from US in particular) rents would go down

I'm now in the process of choosing between 2 houses both in the most exclusive part of the city centre, a thing I could only dream of until few months ago, at the same price I was renting an apartment in Milan in an average neighborhood

Most of the listings are former Airbnb places, you can tell when you visit the houses that packing up so many beds to maximize profit didn't pay, that level of service could only be acceptable by youngsters looking for a cheap place to crash during the two nights spent in Rome with friends, but it actually lowered the real value of the apartments a lot, to the point that many of them are corridors with the same number of rooms and bathrooms, but not a living room or a kitchen, hence impossible to live in unless you enjoy suffering.

Unfortunately for them young tourists and cheap flights will not come back for at least a few years

So now their properties are basically worthless

Agencies that were managing the properties have abandoned the business or are selling their licenses (good luck with that!) and owners have to face the choice of renewing and waiting at least next year to start renting again or lower the prices and avoid more losses, but accept a long term contract which binds them for at least 3+2 years

As I said many of them are not worth it even if the rent went down considerably so it's not even easy to rent in this economy, even owning an apartment in a super exclusive neighborhood rented at half the price, also considering that people who can afford it don't pay for shitty places full of sofa-beds and cheap furniture.

all the listings say the same thing "NO AIRBNB, NO HOLIDAY RENTALS, NO AGENCIES" they only want to deal with medium-long term rentals with trusted people after checking their income.

I'm quite sure even after covid airbnb and all the businesses around it won't come back, at least not in Rome, not in the same way, people are fed up with mass tourism and businesses are starting to enjoy working more with locals who actually live in the neighborhood, like it used to be not so long ago, but were forced to leave by the "tourist-pay-double-for-shit" craze.

It happened and until it worked, it worked, but when it stopped it left ruins

I think people have opened their eyes

Airbnb will still be the preferred way to rent a van on a beautiful beach on a Greek island where a couple can spend few romantic nights, but the idea that it was going to improve the fabric of our old cities is dead IMO

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#64
post #26

Am I the only one who is super eager for them to go public so that I can short them?

I'm super eager for the opposite reason: I want to go long. In 3 years people's travel habits will mostly be back to normal, and AirBnb has a very strong competitive moat

I think they're moat is more of a wading pond. They've relied on user interface dark patterns and sleaziness far too much. They're highly political, which has alienated a lot of people who disagree with their politics. People who DO agree are also likely to dislike what Airbnb has done to rents in many places. Basically, a lot of people hate them.

That stickiness goes away when a credible competitor steps in.

I think if an organization like Google were to start listing similar listing on Maps alongside hotels, they'd be done for. If a competitor were to start with listings on several major travel websites (and easy way to do that is by taking them on as investors), that would also overcome any such moat.

I think whether they do okay or not depends more on the credibility of the competition than on any moat.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#65

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

Short the company -- not the stock. 1. Don't buy the stock. 2. Don't use the platform. 3. Tell others to do the same.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#66
post #6

Just to preempt most of the usual snarky comments -- What's confidential is the contents of the filing, not the fact. All the initial S-1 filings I'm aware of are confidential. After amendments (S-1A filings), the resulting document can be made public. At this time, any details of offering are still volatile, and there's no reason to force companies to publish that information until the final offering details are sol…

In all of my sales I have modified the offering midstream after feedback from investors that jumped through hoops to see how to invest and balked at the numbers. All advisors I've ever had all completely missed the mark about what the market is interested in and what a good deal looks like. And then after modifying its published publicly and that's the only record of what the terms ever were. In the public's mind we never mispriced or raised or lowered based on demand.

Confidential S-1's are perfect for that same result.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#67

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

I don't really like Airbnb as a company but they are the only one out of the marketplace based unicorns who's unit economics seem really solid to me. I personally would not be against them.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#68
post #6

Just to preempt most of the usual snarky comments -- What's confidential is the contents of the filing, not the fact. All the initial S-1 filings I'm aware of are confidential. After amendments (S-1A filings), the resulting document can be made public. At this time, any details of offering are still volatile, and there's no reason to force companies to publish that information until the final offering details are sol…

In all of my sales I have modified the offering midstream after feedback from investors that jumped through hoops to see how to invest and balked at the numbers. All advisors I've ever had all completely missed the mark about what the market is interested in and what a good deal looks like. And then after modifying its published publicly and that's the only record of what the terms ever were. In the public's mind we…

All of your sales? Have you founded multiple public companies or are you an investment banker or something?

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#69
post #67

I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.

I don't really like Airbnb as a company but they are the only one out of the marketplace based unicorns who's unit economics seem really solid to me. I personally would not be against them.

Even in the world of COVID and restricted air travel?

I mean there are lots of city people escaping .. but how likely will that continue as cabins and beachhomes become too cold.

Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement

#70
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really like Airbnb as a company but they are the only one out of the marketplace based unicorns who's unit economics seem really solid to me. I personally would not be against them.

Even in the world of COVID and restricted air travel? I mean there are lots of city people escaping .. but how likely will that continue as cabins and beachhomes become too cold.

Arguably AirBnB becomes the only safe travel option when compared to hotels.

Though neither survive a complete travel collapse.

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