Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus • Hacker News Board

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#411

Post by Wowfunhappy » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:10 AM UTC

ketamine__ wrote: post #407

jachee wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. The bars should be closed, too. We should be spending the entire defense budget on paying for people to stay home, stay safe, and to get them what they need; as well as funding as much scientific research as feasible to fight this clear and present danger to our lives and livelihoods.

In what world is a virus that is asymptomatic for 99.9% of the population a clear and present danger to our lives?

Even the very highest estimates of asymptomatic infection don't put it anywhere near that high, unless you're talking about only the first few days or some such.

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#412

Post by ketamine__ » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:16 AM UTC

room500 wrote: post #261

timr wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Only 300 people have died because of the policies that were put in place. Relaxing those policies will increase that number." This is an assumption, and it's a bad one. The paucity of deaths in young people is true around the world, regardless of lockdown policy. Sweden, for example, does not have a higher proportion of young people dying.

Yes, it is an assumption. Unfortunately, this situation is unprecedented, so everything we do has to be an educated guess. I would also note that you followed it up with an assumption of your own ;) It is well established that physical distancing limits the spread of virus transmitted via respiratory droplets. If you refute that, I would require significant peer-reviewed literature on your side. https://academic.oup.…

> It is well established that physical distancing limits the spread of virus transmitted via respiratory droplets. If you refute that, I would require significant peer-reviewed literature on your side.

The study you provided does not support your claim that physical distancing works as it is implemented in the US (6 feet of separation).

> We found that the evidence base for current guidelines is sparse, and the available data do not support the 1- to 2-meter (≈3–6 feet) rule of spatial separation. Of 10 studies on horizontal droplet distance, 8 showed droplets travel more than 2 meters (≈6 feet), in some cases up to 8 meters (≈26 feet).

It's also likely Covid is spread by aerosols. There needs to be more research but it is very likely based on the details of superspreader events.

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#413

Post by secabeen » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:22 AM UTC

massysett wrote: post #256

PAPPPmAc wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At most state schools (including the one that employs me) on-campus room and board now costs at least as much as tuition due to years of upward pressure on amenities from [parents of] students and the resulting ill-considered public/private development deals. I agree that the spending time immersed in the university environment is one of the most important parts of the college experience, but you don't have to get ex…

Room and board costing more than tuition is not a new thing and I doubt amenities is the whole reason. I went to a state school over twenty years ago and room and board cost more than tuition. It was hardly amenity-rich: most rooms were doubles with a shared bathroom down the hall, no carpet, old worn furniture, and no air conditioning. The food was cafeteria style where fajita night was a big feature. The rec center…

Also, room and board are normally considered auxiliary enterprises, and self-funding. If they have profits, they contribute those to the university, but they are not budgeted with the general campus funds.

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#414

Post by 609venezia » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:24 AM UTC

dokem wrote: post #185

chasd00 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it would be interesting to see the ambition and execution discipline of a young person who made in to, and through, Stanford applied to a traditional trade. If i may use a dirty word, "disruptive" comes to mind.

There's plenty of guys that go into the trades (thinking more like welding, machining, diesel repair) that quickly start running their own truck or shop, work for themselves, maybe hire a few employees and make bank. That's what it would likely look like I imagine.

I know a guy who dropped out of HS and did this as an HVAC guy. He bought a house on a lake, a second home at the beach, and built a special garage to house his car collection. After an ugly divorce that cost him almost everything he has rebuilt (but not quite to where he was before). It takes a lot of work but it can be done. As others have observed, it's unfortunately regarded as a low-status option on the coasts

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#415

Post by ketamine__ » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:26 AM UTC

justin66 wrote: post #263

timr wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"So even assuming that the personal danger is acceptable (which isn't a given; 300 deaths sounds like a horrible and avoidable tragedy to me) death figures among healthy 20-somethings don't capture the full risk of keeping a university open." Well now you're shifting the goalposts. The comment was that the students are at risk. Someone shows you that they're not at risk, and you pivot to danger to "townsfolk". Here's…

> The comment was that the students are at risk. Someone shows you that they're not at risk, and you pivot to danger to "townsfolk". Assuming they're not stupid, evil, or politically conservative, the students are probably concerned about the risk of spreading the illness and the attendant harm that could cause, as well as what it could do to themselves.

Perhaps they think those at risk should exercise some responsibility of their own and quarantine at home?

Is it a human right to have a job, venture to the grocery store, and see friends and family?

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#416

Post by Chathamization » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:26 AM UTC

alchemism wrote: post #401

Chathamization wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> International relations is an actual subject area. It's true that we don't need that many diplomats In my experience "International Relations" classes teach very little that's actually valuable. I think there's a common in mistake in thinking at because X is important, then university classes about X are useful. There are a lot of subjects that are important but where the study of it in academia (at least at the un…

When I dropped out of International Relations to go be an autodidact hacker in the dotcom boom, I noted that the degree program was basically a track to work at the State Department. The professors were highly enthusiastic about it as a profession. Granted this may have just been my school. I didn’t find any of it relevant at the time. Fast forward 25 years and now that my IT work is distributed full-remote global op…

In my experience, professors will generally exaggerate the usefulness of the classes they teach. I'm curious as to what things from IR you found useful and what actions it lead you to? I've seen many IR grads who went into it hoping to do some sort of international work or business, only to find that businesses didn't find what they were taught particularly valuable (and the people I met who were sent overseas for business usually didn't have an IR background). Many who that I saw who went into the State Department ended up doing low-level grunt work that was completely detached from the kind of things IR focuses on (and the ambassadors are often wealthy donors with no IR experience who receive the position as a political favor).

Also, many of the things that were covered in IR classes weren't just useless, but more often than not turned out to be entirely detached from reality. For instance, focusing on things like Thomas Huntington vs. Thomas Friedman (neither of who seem to have had a great track record or understanding of the world).

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#417

Post by ketamine__ » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:29 AM UTC

doctor_eval wrote: post #375

chrisjarvis wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if that person is 18-22 years old, given the data, how is it irresponsible?

A 20 year old died of cv this week here in Victoria. Everybody is at risk, it’s just that the curve “favours” older people. You know, like professors, admin staff, mature students, parents and grandparents, ...

Was he obese? I only ask because many of the younger patients have comorbities that make them vulnerable to many diseases. And vaccines don't work as well for the obese either.

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#418

Post by ketamine__ » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:33 AM UTC

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #154

matz1 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what if its outbreak? Why afraid? We know by now that vast majority of people will be fine.

Culling the herd of the weak is probably not the college experience most people are looking for.

But also the college students probably aren't interested in policing the cafeteria in an attempt to reduce the 600,000+ deaths from heart disease every year.

I'm not sure we can take your comment seriously.

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#419

Post by ps747 » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:35 AM UTC

ketamine__ wrote: post #407

jachee wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. The bars should be closed, too. We should be spending the entire defense budget on paying for people to stay home, stay safe, and to get them what they need; as well as funding as much scientific research as feasible to fight this clear and present danger to our lives and livelihoods.

In what world is a virus that is asymptomatic for 99.9% of the population a clear and present danger to our lives?

That's just not true. The CDC estimates that between 10% and 70% of of cases are asymptomatic with a best estimate of 40%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

As we saw in Italy and New York, COVID-19 has the potential to overwhelm hospitals. Officially, almost 170,000 Americans have died. NYTimes estimates that COVID-19 already caused over 200,000 deaths by comparing against the expected number of deaths if we weren't in a pandemic. So yes, COVID-19 is a clear and present danger to our lives.

Re: Stanford cancels plans to bring half of undergrads back to campus

#420

Post by breck » Sat, Aug 15, 2020, 3:39 AM UTC

thelean12 wrote: post #387

breck wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or it may work because there’s close to zero chance of dying for college students, and we have far more immune people now than we did back in the spring. Sweden’s numbers are looking very interesting right now.

Why are you ignoring spread? College students can easily spread it to vulnerable populations. 1. Some live at home. 2. Some will go shopping. Some in places without mask mandates. 3. Older professors and staff (custodial, food services, advisors) will be pressured to work (you probably can't just say "I'm not teaching" without quitting). 4. Some may need to use public transit to get to the school. Again also in some…

There are a lot fewer people to spread it to now than there was in March.

The USA is over 5M confirmed cases now. The CDC estimates that the true infection count is 6x-24x that. So on the order of 30M - 120M Americans have already had it now.

The distribution is uneven. Places that hadn't gotten hit are getting hit now. But on average we are likely close to herd immunity.

This is no longer an exponential thing here. We can't have an OOM more cases. It's mathematically impossible. The worst is over (again, on average). I don't think we explicitly tried to follow a herd immunity strategy but that is what ended up happening.

1. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...