Live data from Hacker News

A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

sebastianrushworth.com

201–210 of 340 posts

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#201
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think his point is you can't compare the impact of the flu because 1) it hits every year (versus a quick outbreak) and 2) many people are vaccinated. Don't forget the '17 flu seasons was 65k deaths in the US. So we're at a little under 3x right now. So yes, Covid is worse, but we don't bat an eye at 65k deaths due to the flu.

Consider that recovery from coronaplague is lengthy and that a good amount of those discharged form hospital are looking at permanently reduced lung function. Death isn't the best metric here.

> recovery from coronaplague is lengthy

This is simply not true in general. The vast majority of people who come down with covid have a minor illness, and many of them do not even realise what it was. I have three friends who had positive tests and no symptoms beyond those of the common cold. All of the available data supports this being the normal case, and serious complications being either a rare case of bad luck, or a result of underlying illnesses.

> a good amount of those discharged form hospital are looking at permanently reduced lung function

If you have any respiratory infection serious enough to put you in the hospital, you're probably looking at a longer recovery and possibly at long-term reduced lung function. But the relatively young & healthy mostly don't end up in hospital with covid, just as they don't end up in hospital when they get the flu.

Selecting only the most serious cases (hospital admissions) and talking about their outcomes is not useful for drawing general conclusions about the pandemic or the way countries have chosen to respond to it.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#202
post #5

its time to stop this! I am so proud to see my fellow germans rise up: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=htDrDieOgh0

ah, the people that most germans refer to, poetically perhaps, as the "Covidioten".

it turns out that in Germany, as in the USA, there is a significant overlap between the Covidioten and right-wing/nationalist political groups, including even fringe groups that don't believe that the Third Reich actually ended. This gives rise to some good jokes within Germany.

Such as: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeQm7ecXYAYv_ni.jpg

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#203
post #7

There are a lot of highly problematic claims in the article. This one stood out to me: >Shutting down completely in order to decrease the total number of deaths only makes sense if you are willing to stay shut down until a vaccine is available. That could take years. No country is willing to wait that long. Actually it might very well just be half a year until we have a vaccine. Multiple candidate vaccines are in pha…

Unfortunately, it appears that a significant chunk of people are not interested in taking the vaccine. [1] If only half of Americans are going to get the vaccine (that figure is from May polling, referenced below), we can't pin all of our hopes on it. I should note that I'm not saying it's unreasonable of people to be hesitant to take this particular vaccine, given how it is being rushed. Even scientists have said th…

I'm by no means anti-vaccine, but I don't have any faith in a trump-led FDA not taking shortcuts to rush a vaccine in hopes that it'll preserve trump's reign. I won't take any vaccine that hasn't been through some other country's approval process that I can trust. Most likely, I'm looking for something with EU approval.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#204
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same thing in the german press. the next demonstration will be on the 29. of august. It will be even bigger than the last one. You can fool some of the people some of the time. But you cant fool all the people all of the time.

I guess my question was - is that true? No doubt there were some far-right groups, but from what I've read it wasn't all of them. It just seemed like an incredibly dismissive headline. "No worries, just crazy far-right doing their crazy stuff. We can safely ignore what they have to say."

I am sure there are good people on both sides.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#205
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this is also not the case for all the other countries in Europe which (according to the author) have taken the wrong approach to COVID. The more I think about it the more this article confuses and worries me. It's a thinkpiece that is not grounded in the scientific reality.

> It's a thinkpiece that is not grounded in the scientific reality. What does that mean ? As a scientist myself, 'science' can basically never say anything definitive about reality. Not for something extremely well measured and controlled like GR, and especially not something where the evidence on the ground and influencing factors (policy, social opinion, culture) shift with a frequency on the same order of scale th…

It means that people who have no idea what science is like to pretend they have a deeper reason for their biases other than their innate preferences. They do not like that pointed out to them and will violently react to anyone who does.

You can't have a scientific response to the virus when you don't know what the asymptomatic transmission rate is, or what the true death rate is. As can be seen here it does not go well when they are made to even consider that they don't have all the information needed for a scientific response: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24077233

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#206
post #184

I’ve posted this in replies but I want to put it as a top-level comment as well. Here’s a chart showing the effective transmission rate (R value) as a function of “social connectivity” and “herd immunity”; https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860668342079490?s=21 I think what you can find in many examples across the globe is that without an innate geographical advantage or well-established cultural protocols, you can…

If I'm interpreting this series of graphs correctly, it's also assuming that social contact is uniformly distributed across the population (i.e. every person has an equal number of daily contacts). The less true that is, the fewer people need to be infected for herd immunity effects to become significant. We don't have good numbers on what the real distribution is, but there is growing evidence this is a significant effect.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#207
post #185
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pull the flu/influenza death numbers from the CDC for the last decade. I dare you. In the last ten years we (in the US) have lost +500,000 people to the flu. For some reason the people that died from the flu must be lesser in value because nobody did anything about it. You would think that a single year of 65k deaths would be enough for everybody to wear masks the following flu season. And yet? No economic shutdowns.…

With shutdowns, masks, and closed schools, COVID has killed in six months about a quarter of the people who die from the flu in a decade How is that an argument for less-drastic measures?

The comparison is fraught with problems due to the lack of immunity for COVID.

The "with shutdowns, masks and closed schools" line also assumes the effectiveness of all those measures, and ignores the glaring problem that they simply kick the can down the road -- there is no appetite for shutdowns and closed schools until the end of 2021, but a vaccine could easily take that long (if not longer) to be generally available -- assuming any of the current vaccine candidates work well. So what, exactly, is the plan?

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#208
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

350k deaths sounds like a huge number, but it's important to take in account how many of those would have died anyway in the next two or three years. Dying at 80 is not the same as dying at 20.

Unfortunately, it turns out that the estimate of the years of life lost due to Covid per person is significantly larger than "two or three years". For example, "New study finds coronavirus can cut life span by 10 years or more" (see https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/49... ), and there are other more recent studies that go into more detail in the US looking at populations ( https://www.hsph.har…

> New study finds coronavirus can cut life span by 10 years or more

This is one of the worst headlines I've seen recently. The actual study measures years lost only of those that died. By that metric, if I cross the road today and get hit by a bus, the headline would be "crossing the road can cut life span by 40 years or more". There is zero valuable information in that headline.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#209

"COVID is over in Sweden" is a pretty bold claim with ~400 daily infections, and increasing again as per https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6... Just like in other EU countries, it is now the younger population which seems mostly affected, and thus the mortality is lower - which is ultimately some good news. Summer holidays are now almost over though, so people are traveling home from vacation…

Average new cases per day has dropped from about 1200/day in late June to less than 300/day now. There's a slight uptick over the past week. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr... Downtrend in average deaths per day continues, currently at 6/day. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr...

> There's a slight uptick over the past week.

Any uptick at all is concerning. In fact, a flattening of the decline is concerning.

The implied thesis in the linked article is that Sweden has reached a level of herd immunity due to widespread T-cell responses, and that life in the country continues as normal.

If that is the case, then we would expect the infection curve in Sweden to follow a classic logistic model -- which is more or less symmetric. A rapid rise should be accompanied by a rapid fall.

An asymmetric curve or one that has a "second wave" of any size tends to refute this theory. It would suggest that there was in fact some meaningful intervention that changed: either the initial infection was among a different group (i.e., what the US saw with infections first dominated by New York and then later by other states) or there was an effective policy response that has begun to wane.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#210
post #7

There are a lot of highly problematic claims in the article. This one stood out to me: >Shutting down completely in order to decrease the total number of deaths only makes sense if you are willing to stay shut down until a vaccine is available. That could take years. No country is willing to wait that long. Actually it might very well just be half a year until we have a vaccine. Multiple candidate vaccines are in pha…

There are alot of ongoing trials and indeed unprecented global effort towards a vaccine but we can’t forget the usual time to market, and the fact that no vaccine has ever been created for a coronavirus. 6 months is very optimistic.
Post reply on HN