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Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

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Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#141

Post by stonogo »

contravert wrote: post #138
xenospn wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bingo. That’s exactly why I don’t see China surpassing the US or the west anytime soon. They can clone Tesla or Apple as much as they want - but nothing truly groundbreaking will happen, since they have been “inspired” by the west for so long.

This racist superiority complex is the pride before the fall. What exactly is TikTok's recommendation algorithms or Huawei's 5G technology cloning?

Here's a backgrounder on the Huawei IP thefts: https://www.zdnet.com/article/us-charges-huawei-with-rackete...

TikTok's For You algorithm is pretty clearly based on YouTube and Netflix's published recommendation platforms, but I'm not sure why you're framing this so narrowly. The entire product is a Vine clone and they regularly steal content for marketing purposes (c.f. https://twitter.com/xTempex/status/1182185566999318529).

We don't really see this level of abuse from American or European firms who have ethnically Chinese executives. It's not really a matter of race; it's a corporate culture that is more common in highly-competitive markets with weak IP protections. Trying to frame it as racist isn't really productive, especially since the parent comment wasn't specifically talking about Han Chinese, but about the nation.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#142

Post by aww_dang »

nicoburns wrote: post #67
greatjack613 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a clear win for democratic governments who do not send dissenters to re-training camps. From a competitive landscape, yes it sucks. But Huawei / China needs to be punished for its blatant IP theft, I think this is a great place to start.

You act as if the US doesn't do this. But it has the highest incarceration rates in the world, often for petty crimes like smoking weed. And it also puts prisoners to work.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-forcefully-harvests...

I agree that the US prison industrial complex should be reformed. However it is in no way equivalent to locking people up for political reasons. Political reeducation camps and forced harvesting of organs from prisoners cannot be compared to work release programs or paid prison labor.

Why are so many comments seeking to establish equivalence?

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#143

Post by xster »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #4
mytailorisrich wrote: post #3

China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…

I don't think it's a mistake. It's more that they don't have a choice. There are very few (maybe even only one?) foundries in the world with advanced processes. Building a foundry is not trivial. For how long has Intel stuck with 14nm now? The Dutch ASML lithography machine is one of the most advanced machines in the world, and it's pretty much the only one of its kind. China has been investing heavily in domestic fo…

I think it's just greed and poor risk management. Up until recently, china couldn't even manufacture ball point pens (which I think only 2 companies in the world produced). There's no money to be made at the bottom of the inverted tech pyramid. They rather put their energy in buying ball point pens and using those pens to write stuff that will in the short term make them more money on to of a foundation of sand. Similarly all of the investment from giants like Alibaba etc went into developing e-commerce on top of a tech foundation of sand

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#144

Post by magicsmoke »

euix wrote: post #77
Nokinside wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huawei can still buy SoC with US technology in it if it's designed and manufactured by others. US restrictions are all about Huawei’s ability to use U.S. technology and software to design and manufacture semiconductors abroad. BIS made targeted rule "to impose a new control over certain foreign-produced items, when there is knowledge that such items are destined to a designated entity on the Entity List." > (i) Items…

>Huawei can still buy SoC with US technology in it if it's designed and manufactured by others. I don't get it, if the U.S. wants to cripple Huawei why would they let you buy SoC that way? The whole point I thought was that any company dealing with Huawei that used some material proportion of U.S. originated technology to deliver goods to Huawei had to stop. Which means in order for Huawei to build chips it needs a s…

Chip design involves a lot of upfront investment cost that's recuperated by selling at volume. If the US allowed Huawei to make its own chips, Huawei's chips eat into the global sales volume, profits, and future R&D funds of Qualcomm. If the US simply banned Huawei from buying Qualcomm chips, Qualcomm still takes a hit on its sales volume and profitability and nothing has changed on the US side of the books. But if the US bars Huawei from getting its chips manufactured and gives it no choice but to buy from Qualcomm, Qualcomm's sales volumes stay elevated and it is able to recoup its R&D investments.

Ultimately, a big part of the US/China tech war is due to the structure of high tech R&D, which is to sink a massive amount of capital at the beginning in hopes of getting a global monopoly and being able to sell to everyone in the world to recoup that initial cost. While China was a consumer and assembler of US technology, the US could rest easy knowing that it had a captive global market for high tech products to fuel its future R&D costs and stay ahead. But when China starts developing and selling alternatives, there's not enough buyers and sales volume to support both Chinese and US cutting edge tech companies, and some of them will go under in the decades following. We saw this happen with Taiwan's TSMC becoming the only real vendor of the latest semiconductor process nodes after decades of US fabs falling out of the race. But Taiwan is under US military influence, China isn't. Ultimately, this is about keeping China on a leash as a consumer instead of a producer of technology as much as possible because there isn't enough customers and capital in the world for two high-tech R&D superpowers to siphon at the same time.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#145

Post by ikerdanzel »

Seanambers wrote: post #124
bmitc wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What other countries have long term plans and initiatives and effectively execute on them as China does?

Chinas success in doing this can in large part be traced to the unwillingness of the U.S and the west to challenge and stop the pure theft of IP from basically all advanced industries and unfair trade practices. This has enabled an immense transfer of IP which gives China an amazing foundation to build upon. Now China has to do the final push to become self reliant, but it's much more feasible than it was say 10-20 y…

Feasible in 10-25 years, IF there is no political turmoils, persistent calamities and foreign invasions. Recent 3 decades of positive progression doesn't really extrapolate well when it comes to China historically. Take a look at it's 5,000 years of civilization. Usually when into any succession dynasty, she frequently stagnate. If there are major calamities AND foreign invasions, the internal political struggles will initiate a dynastic change and balkanization. China frequently unite (now) and then breakup repetitively throughout the history.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#146

Post by magicsmoke »

ikerdanzel wrote: post #145
Seanambers wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinas success in doing this can in large part be traced to the unwillingness of the U.S and the west to challenge and stop the pure theft of IP from basically all advanced industries and unfair trade practices. This has enabled an immense transfer of IP which gives China an amazing foundation to build upon. Now China has to do the final push to become self reliant, but it's much more feasible than it was say 10-20 y…

Feasible in 10-25 years, IF there is no political turmoils, persistent calamities and foreign invasions. Recent 3 decades of positive progression doesn't really extrapolate well when it comes to China historically. Take a look at it's 5,000 years of civilization. Usually when into any succession dynasty, she frequently stagnate. If there are major calamities AND foreign invasions, the internal political struggles wil…

China balkanized repeatedly during its 5000 year civilization because it was a premodern empire. Premodern empires don't have the same tools as modern states to enforce control down to the local level, so they run by co-opting local elites to do their work for them. However, co-opting local elites means that when the center weakens, these elites start raising militia and become independent states. In modern times, no local militia has the firepower to overcome a centralized military. Therefore, you don't get balkanization as long as the political leadership is united and willing to put down uprisings. Balkanization only happens when, in the case of the USSR, the central leadership loses faith and tells the army to stand aside and let it happen. The CCP has studied what happened in the USSR and they've been careful to make sure nobody in the government gets any funny ideas to let balkanization happen.

I would be cautious about using history prior to the industrial revolution in any predictive capacity because the industrial revolution was a major shift in technology, economics, and societal organization. Yes, humans are still motivated by the same wants and fears, but many of the mechanisms that drove premodern events no longer exist today.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#147

Post by londons_explore »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #58
shankysingh wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have enough knowledge of chip's logistics so my less informed 2 cents would be, thinking from a business perspective, if eventual dominance of chip supply-chain was in cards, Chinese businesses would have had done it regardless of ban existed or not. So, this ban gives Taiwan and US businesses some breathing space to keep that lead. How its leveraged, is upto the governments and business's .

This ban does not help Taiwanese businesses. Quite the opposite.

I'm sure they were given a decent financial incentive to go along with this ban. Taiwan is an ally after all, if you annoy their companies with far overreaching targeted international rules, and don't compensate them, there are going to be political costs.

I would guess the new TSMC facility in the US is part of this compensation - they'll probably be receiving very favourable tax treatment for everything manufactured there.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#148

Post by [deleted] »

magicsmoke wrote: post #146
ikerdanzel wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feasible in 10-25 years, IF there is no political turmoils, persistent calamities and foreign invasions. Recent 3 decades of positive progression doesn't really extrapolate well when it comes to China historically. Take a look at it's 5,000 years of civilization. Usually when into any succession dynasty, she frequently stagnate. If there are major calamities AND foreign invasions, the internal political struggles wil…

China balkanized repeatedly during its 5000 year civilization because it was a premodern empire. Premodern empires don't have the same tools as modern states to enforce control down to the local level, so they run by co-opting local elites to do their work for them. However, co-opting local elites means that when the center weakens, these elites start raising militia and become independent states. In modern times, no…

[deleted]

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#149

Post by NOGDP »

Seanambers wrote: post #124
bmitc wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What other countries have long term plans and initiatives and effectively execute on them as China does?

Chinas success in doing this can in large part be traced to the unwillingness of the U.S and the west to challenge and stop the pure theft of IP from basically all advanced industries and unfair trade practices. This has enabled an immense transfer of IP which gives China an amazing foundation to build upon. Now China has to do the final push to become self reliant, but it's much more feasible than it was say 10-20 y…

> Chinas success in doing this can in large part be traced to the unwillingness of the U.S and the west to challenge and stop the pure theft of IP from basically all advanced industries

I don't know if that had such a large impact. How much quality innovation is either secret or patented? How many patents are simply low quality, low effort trash[1]? Seems like most groundbreaking research is published relatively quickly.

[1] https://www.eff.org/issues/stupid-patent-month

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