Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips • Hacker News Board

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#51

Post by Steltek » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:22 PM UTC

dirtyid wrote: post #30

mytailorisrich wrote: post #3

China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…

Look up Fujian Jinhua plant 2018. Truth is US has been sanctioning and using CFIUS to undermine Chinese IC for a while now. Many blocked acquisitions under Obama. Relationship was just less acrimonious and less public. I suspect even Nvidia's ARM ambitions is part of plan to undermine Chinese IC efforts. Like how William Barr floated idea to get CISCO to buy controlling share in SE or Nokia to rival Huawei 5G. That s…

Interesting theory re Arizona meaning Taiwan loses its advantage. Although no one can ascribe too much (or really any) foresight to the current US admin, I have to imagine there's a domino theory w.r.t. to Taiwan and the SCS region. Ceding China's control (military, economic, or otherwise) of Taiwan would panic every other independent nation in the region into striking a good deal with China to hopefully maintain their autonomy.

Ugh. The West has had the tail wagging the dog for so long. Arrogant transnational corporations and the rich think they can control China like everything else. It's the same arrogance on display with coronavirus: they play by very different rules and don't care who you are.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#52

Post by greatjack613 » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:22 PM UTC

chlee wrote: post #44

mytailorisrich wrote: post #3

China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…

The chinese govt is indeed throwing their weight behind developing a local semiconductor industry capable of rivaling TSMC. They are making heavy investment in SMIC for example. However, at the same time, unfortunately the Chinese government doesn't play fair, and they are ramping up state sponsored industry espionage and hacking of American and Taiwanese semi-conductor firms to speed up the process. This best descri…

+1 to this, China has never made anything real themselves. It is all stolen property from countries who actually play fair.

Until the general U.S population realizes that china's end goal is to eat them alive and unanimously supports putting china in its place, nothing will change and by then I fear it will be to late.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#53

Post by moooo99 » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:23 PM UTC

acomjean wrote: post #5

Long term I feel China is going to work around these sanctions and such and end up completely independent of US tech.

That'll probably happen in the long term. In the short term, China might answer by completely banning US companies from the Chinese market.

I don't see anything to win here. Probably every large company, including those from the US, have some kind of production facilities, storage or supplies in China. China applying similar restrictions would probably be a worse hit for the US than the current situation is for China.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#54

Post by FooBarWidget » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:23 PM UTC

paulsutter wrote: post #35

mytailorisrich wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US are also reliant on TSMC but since Taiwan is reliant on the US that's fine. As we can see the US can impose their will on them.

This is super naive. China has a huge military, is much closer to RoC, and has absolute popular support that RoC is already a province of China. Whereas the US can barely muster popular support for wearing masks. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/06/china-deploys-am...

US military presence is sort of a paradox for Taiwan. It both protects Taiwan, as well threatens it, in the sense that China feels threatened by the US military and thus is incentivized to militarize out of self-defense.

Taiwan's geography makes it a natural fortress, and even Taiwan's own military can defend the island pretty well entirely on its own. A mainland invasion will be very, very expensive, so it won't happen that easily.

Economically, Taiwan is in decline. China basically doesn't need Taiwan for economic reasons. So the only reason to invade Taiwan, would be to appeal to the nationalist sentiment of reunification. But the chances of that happening is less than what many think, both because of the military cost, and because the CCP are actually moderates; there are many Chinese people who are far more radical, and if it's up to them then they would have launched an invasion a decade ago.

This probably sounds unbelievable, or even propagandistic, to many people here on HN. You don't have to take my word for it. See Kishore Mahbubani, ex-Singapore diplomat & ex-head of UN Security Council, who wrote a book on China.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#55

Post by adventured » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:24 PM UTC

acomjean wrote: post #5

Long term I feel China is going to work around these sanctions and such and end up completely independent of US tech.

That was always the outcome. It's the road China has been traveling down intentionally. Before the ability to use it against China runs out, the US is using it while they have it to use. China does it everywhere they compete out of a sense of hyper nationalism, necessity to become a superpower and independence (the ability to pursue its national objectives without concerns for sanctions or outside opinion). Russia would love to have the competence to do the same thing (so far all Russia has managed, mostly, is de-dollarization; China can't de-dollarize at this stage due to its exports and tight link with the global economy). China has known for two decades or more what they had to do. Mostly the only difference will be China will pull forward their plans, if and where they can.

They always planned to build up their own semiconductor industry and become heavily independent of foreign semiconductors.

They always planned to build up their own software industry and become heavily independent of foreign software.

They always planned to build up their own jet industry and become heavily independent of Boeing and Airbus.

They always planned to build up their military tech and become heavily independent of Russia.

Insert any given prominent technology here.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#56

Post by magicsmoke » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:24 PM UTC

euix wrote: post #38

Kirin's probably source something from U.S. designs right? Hence it's production run must end. I am guessing this means Huawei needs to switch to a design that is wholly originating from China (with possible input from Japan and Korea) but right now they are not up to the level of the Kirins. This may really just mean Xiaomi or Oppo gains an advantage over Huawei and takes the top crown.

It's less about the designs and more about TSMC being the only company with the process node to manufacture them getting barred by the US.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#57

Post by whytaka » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:26 PM UTC

alfiedotwtf wrote: post #47

dade_ wrote: post #32

Either the PRC has overplayed their hand, or they are up to something. 2020 still has nearly 5 months to deliver more gifts.

If you think the Trump administration has out-thought China, you need to re-read this sentence.

When you're a gorilla, you don't really need to think through your punches if all you want is maximum damage.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#58

Post by mytailorisrich » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:30 PM UTC

shankysingh wrote: post #17

mytailorisrich wrote: post #3

China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…

I don't have enough knowledge of chip's logistics so my less informed 2 cents would be, thinking from a business perspective, if eventual dominance of chip supply-chain was in cards, Chinese businesses would have had done it regardless of ban existed or not. So, this ban gives Taiwan and US businesses some breathing space to keep that lead. How its leveraged, is upto the governments and business's .

This ban does not help Taiwanese businesses. Quite the opposite.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#59

Post by greatpatton » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:30 PM UTC

Nokinside wrote: post #49

greatpatton wrote: post #26

Can someone provide more context about what SoC they are going to use for their phones from now on as this is not really clear from the article.

Most likely MediaTek for the lower end and Qualcomm's Snapdragons for flagship phones. Huawei still needs license from BIS to use Snapdragons but it should be easier to get.

But Qualcomm is an American company. How would they be able to sell to Huawei?

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#60

Post by beagle3 » Fri, Aug 07, 2020, 2:34 PM UTC

greatjack613 wrote: post #52

chlee wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chinese govt is indeed throwing their weight behind developing a local semiconductor industry capable of rivaling TSMC. They are making heavy investment in SMIC for example. However, at the same time, unfortunately the Chinese government doesn't play fair, and they are ramping up state sponsored industry espionage and hacking of American and Taiwanese semi-conductor firms to speed up the process. This best descri…

+1 to this, China has never made anything real themselves. It is all stolen property from countries who actually play fair. Until the general U.S population realizes that china's end goal is to eat them alive and unanimously supports putting china in its place, nothing will change and by then I fear it will be to late.

The assumption that any country, especially the successful ones, plays “fair” is ludicrous. IIRC the CIA (or was it NSA?) was giving state-gathered intel to American arms And aerospace manufacturers in the 1980s so that they could outbid European rivals.

The Chinese might be playing by different rules than those “established” over the last few decades by the west; but no one is playing “fair”.