A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid • Hacker News Board

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#131

Post by nopinsight » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 12:56 AM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #119

agildehaus wrote: post #46

Finland has roughly half Sweden's population but 5% of their COVID deaths. Sweden's economy contracted 8.6% to the EU's 11.9%. Hope those 5000+ unnecessary deaths were worth 3.3%. "Considering that 70% of those who have died of covid are over 80 years old, quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway." Wow.

At $100k per quality-adjusted life-year and 10 QALY lost per death, those 5k deaths are $5B, about 1% of Sweden's GDP. So by the same math used to determine if medical treatments are cost-effective, it's breakeven if that GDP difference persists for about four months. We should also account for QALY lost due to people who get severely ill but recover, but I'd guess the net result is surprisingly close to breakeven. P…

Plausible long-term damage to the brain of a significant percentage of COVID patients, in both severe and non-severe cases—-according to a Lancet paper—should change the QALY-based calculation by a great deal.

https://mobile.twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1290916583137...

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#132

Post by StavrosK » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 12:58 AM UTC

chrisjs96 wrote: post #124

agildehaus wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delusional. For that, ~2700 more people would need to die in Finland. 14 people have died in Finland since June 1st and they're typically reporting 0 now. In Sweden, 40 people died ON June 1st. Both countries have it under control now. But it's clear Finland's shutdown saved lives.

It's not clear anything is saving lives. Once everything opens up we could be right where we started. Also we've said basically that people with coronavirus matter more than other illnesses. There will be millions of deaths around the world because of shutdown. Things like AIDs medicine. Then thousands due to lack of treatment of cancers and people not going to doctor(England did a study on this). Then you'll have th…

Why are you counting the increased ill effects of staying home but not the decreased ill effects of leaving home? No more car accidents, for example.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#133

Post by foogazi » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 12:59 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #42

mcguire wrote: post #16

" Covid has at present killed less than 6000 in Sweden. It is very unlikely that the number of dead will go above 7,000. An average influenza year in Sweden, 700 people die of influenza. " The average number of people who die of influenza in the US is about 35,000. So we should expect 350,000 deaths and then we'll be all good?

I think his point is you can't compare the impact of the flu because 1) it hits every year (versus a quick outbreak) and 2) many people are vaccinated. Don't forget the '17 flu seasons was 65k deaths in the US. So we're at a little under 3x right now. So yes, Covid is worse, but we don't bat an eye at 65k deaths due to the flu.

> Don't forget the '17 flu seasons was 65k deaths in the US. So we're at a little under 3x right now. So yes, Covid is worse, but we don't bat an eye at 65k deaths due to the flu.

How can we compare Covid numbers to the flu when the US has gone into lockdown, schools closed, everyone that can is WFH. No concerts or sporting events

totally different circumstances

Sweden might be a more accurate comparison since they didn’t go into full lockdown and it’s at 10x

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#134

Post by borvo » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 12:59 AM UTC

rsweeney21 wrote: post #51

Wouldn't this article be considered "misinformation" on most social media sites? It's important information that I don't think should be censored, but it goes contrary to WHO.

"Sebastian Rushworth M.D." clearly states at the beginning of his internet post that it's anecdotal, even though his bio suggests he's trying to correct internet misinformation with "science". It absolutely shouldn't be censored. I mean, if I was considering taking this guy's medical advice - I'd want to know about this.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#135

Post by gorkempacaci » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 1:00 AM UTC

Sweden didn’t go into total lockdown but still did a lot. In the grocery store the cashiers are in a plastic bubble. Wherever there is a line there are marks on the floor to show where to wait to keep distance. Nobody shakes hands for quite some time. Yes, people go to Cafes/restaurants but restaurants have been assessed and assigned covid-friendly seating layouts. There are many more things that clearly separate today from last year for daily life in Sweden.

So numbers going down and death rate staying low should be partly connected to this. Also, Sweden is quite a different country to begin with. Sparsely populated and half of all households are single person. So this ‘doctor’ is a bit careless while he tells the world to do like Sweden. It might end up much worse.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#136

Post by chrisjs96 » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 1:00 AM UTC

Only thing anyone can do is go to a shoe store, buy some running shoes and start running like 5 to 10 miles a week. Lay out in the sun and start eating healthier. If you can't run just walk. Play basketball, play soccer whatever. Why do people worry so much about things they can't control, when there are things they actually can control. If some of my facebook friends were more worried about walking everyday instead of who is and isn't wearing a mask they wouldn't be 250lbs.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#137

Post by nopinsight » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 1:00 AM UTC

Plausible long-term damage to the brain of a significant percentage of COVID patients, in both severe and non-severe cases—according to a very recent Lancet paper—should change any tradeoff analysis by a great deal. The range of harm could be far beyond the number of deaths.

Cerebral Micro-Structural Changes in COVID-19 Patients – An MRI-based 3-month Follow-up Study

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5...

“Interpretation

Study findings revealed possible disruption to micro-structural and functional brain integrity in the recovery stages of COVID-19, suggesting the long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1290916583137...

“Manifest brain damage in 55% COVID-19 patients

..higher bilateral gray matter volumes (GMV) in olfactory cortices, hippocampi, insulas, left Rolandic operculum..

No significant difference between severe and non-severe COVID”

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#138

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 1:01 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #105

hn_check wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden has adopted virtually every recommendations without it being mandated . This is an enormous difference from some Florida Man arguing why lockdowns are unnecessary. As much as people focus on face masks, in Sweden the sparsity of people given their response makes it much less of a necessity. https://www.reddit.com/r/sweden/comments/i58jjj/helgtr%C3%A5... There you go -- read about Swedes talking about their COV…

So if I understand you correctly, although Sweden hasn't closed schools, children aren't attending? And although non-essential businesses aren't closed, Swedes aren't going to those stores? And masks aren't mandated, but most people are wearing them?

> And although non-essential businesses aren't closed, Swedes aren't going to those stores?

My understanding (based on what I've heard) is that that was indeed the situation at least during the peak; not sure if that's still the case.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#139

Post by doodlebugging » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 1:02 AM UTC

Is this guy an undertaker or a urologist? His tag seems to have both words but I do not speak Swedish.

Anyway it may not be a perfect extrapolation or comparison but if you take his numbers, 6000 dead in a country of 100 million people and you adjust that to the US population don't you come out with 330 million people and 198000 dead?

We are not far from that now and if the trend continues we will blow past that in a month or so. That's one race I didn't want to be winning.

Re: A Swedish doctor's perspective on Covid

#140

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel » Sat, Aug 08, 2020, 1:03 AM UTC

rsweeney21 wrote: post #44

supernova87a wrote: post #31

The author doesn't state (and I don't know the real-time info) about whether the country is locked down and social distancing/masks, etc. If so, it's not like their laissez-faire attitude (the previous months) is the success he's making it out to be. They only have stabilized because they adopted the recommended measures finally, if that's true.

The Swedish government never locked down or encouraged any sort of social distancing. Their plan was herd immunity and they appear to have gotten it right.

The government may not have required or encouraged it, but many people practiced it anyways because they didn't trust their government's discussion.