21–30 of 170 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
And who do you think the US of A is reliant on?
The US are also reliant on TSMC but since Taiwan is reliant on the US that's fine. As we can see the US can impose their will on them.
I thought that SMIC were producing Kirin chips: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187993.shtml
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the more worrying thing is what happens to the West if, when it has built it's own fab capacity (which is much easier said than done, but China will throw enormous resource at it because it has to), China decides to destabilise Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but…
Yes, that's what I meant by 'strategic consequences', including in case of a cross-straight conflict. At the moment it is in everyone's interest that Taiwan's foundries stay up and running. But in the future, in case of a hypothetical conflict it might even be in the mainland's interest to bomb them and create havoc for Western companies.
A plausible start of WWIII would be China seizing Taiwan in order to regain access to TSMC.
I really doubt it. China has its own fabs, they're just a few generations behind (14nm). That "only" means their chips are not competitive in certain contexts (heat, power), not that they can't have chips at all. They're investing heavily in research and development. It's just a matter of time before they catch up. There's no need to do something risky and expensive, like starting a war over Taiwan. And taking over T…
A plausible start of WWIII would be China seizing Taiwan in order to regain access to TSMC.
I really doubt it. China has its own fabs, they're just a few generations behind (14nm). That "only" means their chips are not competitive in certain contexts (heat, power), not that they can't have chips at all. They're investing heavily in research and development. It's just a matter of time before they catch up. There's no need to do something risky and expensive, like starting a war over Taiwan. And taking over T…
China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…
I think the more worrying thing is what happens to the West if, when it has built it's own fab capacity (which is much easier said than done, but China will throw enormous resource at it because it has to), China decides to destabilise Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but…
TSMC actually plans to set up shop in Arizona: https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsArchivesAction....
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the more worrying thing is what happens to the West if, when it has built it's own fab capacity (which is much easier said than done, but China will throw enormous resource at it because it has to), China decides to destabilise Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but…
> Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but does anyone think the Western nations current or foreseeable leadership really have the strategic foresight to do so? TSMC actually plans to set up shop in Arizona: https://www.tsmc.com/tsmcdotcom/PRListingNewsArchivesAction....
Maybe the Chinese government can fix this with using some extra slave labour or else steal and extortion it from some small countries? Can't they just invade Taiwan or Korea and just grab it? As a last resort they could become a democracy, without slavery, without stealing and play by the rules, but hey what a weired idea if you can be a thug as well!
China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…
That said, TSMC is too successful for it's own good. Once their Arizona plant opens on US tax dime, Taiwan will loose security guarantor. I suspect they'll delay for as long as they can. SMIC is basically sufficient to make IC for Chinese military use in any case. The main, and huge problem, is being commercially competitive.