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Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

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11–20 of 170 posts

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#11

China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…

I think the more worrying thing is what happens to the West if, when it has built it's own fab capacity (which is much easier said than done, but China will throw enormous resource at it because it has to), China decides to destabilise Taiwan's semiconductor industry.

Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but does anyone think the Western nations current or foreseeable leadership really have the strategic foresight to do so?

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#13

A plausible start of WWIII would be China seizing Taiwan in order to regain access to TSMC.

I really doubt it. China has its own fabs, they're just a few generations behind (14nm). That "only" means their chips are not competitive in certain contexts (heat, power), not that they can't have chips at all. They're investing heavily in research and development. It's just a matter of time before they catch up. There's no need to do something risky and expensive, like starting a war over Taiwan.

And taking over Taiwan will cripple TSMC's ability to provide to anyone. The moment they invade Taiwan, 100% of its population becomes anti-China (right now a portion of Taiwanese are still sympathetic to the idea of reunification). TSMC employees will revolt and the island will turn into a perpetual guerilla war zone. How do you produce chips in such an environment?

I still think WWIII could plausibly happen, just not because of TSMC.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#15

China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…

The world is reliant on TSMC even Intel is capitulating and going to use TSMC

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#16
Maybe the Chinese government can fix this with using some extra slave labour or else steal and extortion it from some small countries? Can't they just invade Taiwan or Korea and just grab it? As a last resort they could become a democracy, without slavery, without stealing and play by the rules, but hey what a weired idea if you can be a thug as well!

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#17

China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…

I don't have enough knowledge of chip's logistics so my less informed 2 cents would be, thinking from a business perspective, if eventual dominance of chip supply-chain was in cards, Chinese businesses would have had done it regardless of ban existed or not.

So, this ban gives Taiwan and US businesses some breathing space to keep that lead. How its leveraged, is upto the governments and business's .

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#18

China made a big mistake in being too reliant on TSMC, etc. or maybe it did not have the capacity to go after too many targets. Or maybe it simply did not think it could be a problem. They are quick to learn and adapt, though, not least when the Chinese state throws its whole weight behind something, so I'm thinking that after this initial shock, in a few years the result will be a decline of the relative importance…

I think the more worrying thing is what happens to the West if, when it has built it's own fab capacity (which is much easier said than done, but China will throw enormous resource at it because it has to), China decides to destabilise Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Western nations would be smart to try and decentralise some of that production capacity (also easier said than done) before that could come to be, but…

Yes, that's what I meant by 'strategic consequences', including in case of a cross-straight conflict.

At the moment it is in everyone's interest that Taiwan's foundries stay up and running. But in the future, in case of a hypothetical conflict it might even be in the mainland's interest to bomb them and create havoc for Western companies.

Re: Huawei CEO: After September 15 No More Kirin Chips

#20

A plausible start of WWIII would be China seizing Taiwan in order to regain access to TSMC.

Seizing another territory for their knowledge / expertise /manufacturing capabilities would demonstrate weakness. I am pretty sure Beijing would rather avoid that.
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